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Bobby Deskins. Yeah,
so I want to start with the radar here.
Now if you can get the on weather too
and just hear the latest 11:00 update.
But the bottom line is she just
walked over and says you seen t.
They are looking 110 mile per hr
winds right now that that's the.
Let's go back, Okay,
let me slide out of the way her.
Let's go. Just go back to the other one.
It's fine either way.
110 mile per hour winds?
No, I'm sorry guys back over
to weather 2 would be good.
That 110 mile per hour winds
moving to the north now at 18 mh
the same keep getting faster.
Good news right? It limits the effects.
Pressure is down to 958 milliba,
which is actually a little
lower than the wind speed.
They they kind of do go
together a little bit there.
But now I just walked over and
the update for 11:00 says, look,
we're they were calling for
125 right here near landfall.
That's cat three, that's near the top end.
Cat four starts at 30.
They're now saying it may get ct
4 before it makes landfall early
tomorrow morning in this area.
And what that will do is really increase
the the surge amount up in that area.
Again,
it's not super populated there
because it's so low line,
but that's going to be a big su.
Now what we need to watch for at
this point for us is how big ths
wind field gets because it it'll
start to see this line right he.
That line of longitude right the
is due north, right North and S.
This has been basically moving e
N it almost at least it's wobbld
a little bit back to the West,
just like a quick wobble.
But this will eventually start o
turn to the north and the north.
And so the wind that's expandin,
the wind field that's expandinge
will will push a little bit more here
and and more than the wind thatm
concerned about is the water tht
it's pushing will come in that area too.
And when it over here,
it's pushing the water up to he,
it can kind of run along the co.
When it gets up in the here,
there's nowhere to go,
right.
It's coming in at an angle like
this and it just runs right in .
It's kind of at least parallel in the coast.
But when it gets up here to
Crystal River up towards Chiefld
Cedar Key right in there,
that area is going to get it all piled up.
And the same exact thing is happening
right up here in the Big Bend
where landfall is going to occu.
So, yeah, some really impressive numbers.
All right, let's go back over to Weather 1,
please and thank you.
All right,
here we go.
With the the thunderstorms rollg
through now this area right here duet,
it's your your rain's going
to get picked up
here a little bit.
Now there has been some rotation in here.
It didn't last long.
There's been no warning for it.
I don't see anything right
now that sticks out as hey,
you seek shelter but that is soe
very heavy rainfall coming thro,
especially there as you can seen
far eastern parts of Sarasota County.
That rain band extends all the y
down to Captiva and Sanibel, ri?
It's going to go all the
way up through Polk County.
In fact, it'll go all the way up basically
through Gainesville as well, too, Okay.
But that is the one that has the best chance
for any kind of rotation in it right now.
We're going to get a little bit of a break.
You can see the hole right there, man.
It's a county,
Sarasota, Longbow,
Keys actually starting to
get a little bit of a break.
And then we're going to develope
more rain bands that are coming through,
rains filling out ahead of it
now to the north and the east.
This part that you see right hee
will rotate out through Pasco
County in the next hour or so.
The wind gusts are picking up
because not in just the wind gu,
but the winds themselves because
of that band coming through.
So gusts of 48 in Sarasota,
47 in Venice, 40 in Saint Pete,
37 in Clearwater, and these big numbers,
those are the steady winds,
a twominute wind,
basically 31 mile per hour wind
in Saint Pete, 24 in Sarasota.
We expect Clearwater to come up.
And with the wind blowing here like this,
the water's piling up a little
bit here in Oldsmar.
We're still just now getting
to where we have a S wind.
So in the next two to three hou,
we'll get more of a southwest
wind and that's when the water
is going to start to come up,
especially up in the Tampa Bay.
These are the peak wind gusts as we've
been showing you look at 35 in Brooksville,
20 out in Plant City,
but Plant City that you're
going to get that one line.
I was just showing you that
should give you more than a 20.
Our wind gusts as it comes through 1/2,
I'd say 2530 or so.
We'll keep the highest gusts
right along the coast,
almost a 50 now in Saint Peters,
40 still is the highest in Tamp.
Most of the wind,
the highest winds will stay offshore.
You can see this little area
right here that's essentially
the hurricane force winds right
in there and in fact probably
closer to the eyewall right the,
110 mile per hour winds.
This will start the turn to the
north northeast and then this ee
over here will push on shore.
We showed you that video from
Fort Myers was that where it was
earlier from Fort Myers and that
one from the condo looking down
on the boats and you could realy
see the wind coming through
that was a rain band coming through right
this point that's much further to the east.
Look at all this wind here thats
part of it. Drag that to the noh
and and you can kind of see how
Pinellas just sticks right out, right?
Pinellas, Western Pasco, this whole area,
Manatee, Sarasota County.
So this right here is our weathr
for the next four to six hours.
Carolyn, we asked some.
I know you may not want to compe
hurricanes for many reasons.
Natalie brought up a really good point
about being it like a thumbprin.
They're all very different.
But my question for you is how s
this compare in size to, let's ,
Charlie or speed compared to,
you know, another storm or even Harvey?
How it's sad.
I'm just curious what this
looks like compared to others.
So Charlie, this is very
similar to Charlie in size.
Charlie moved fast and Charlie was small.
Charlie went into Punta Gorda af
you drive through Pimp, the Gor,
you're going to see brand new hs
and buildings in this about 9 t0
mile stretch because that's whee
they had the most damage, right?
This is a little bit bigger.
The hurricane force winds are
a little bit bigger than that,
but it's moving too.
It's moving at a really good cl.
Now Ian was twice the size,
not only the whole storm,
but the hurricane,
the hive of winds in the centers
twice the size and it was moving slower.
And as it came in,
it kind of came in basically something
just like this and then went up like that.
So it was a big time rainmaker.
This will not be a big time
rainmaker for eastern Polk Coun,
most of Polk County for that matter, right.
So there are differences.
Absolutely.
And we try not to compare them o
much because people think all was fine
for Irma or I have, you know, r.
I was fine for Charlie.
Every storm is different because
it's not exactly even the physil
makeup of the storm, but in this case,
it's the direction that it's traveling
and what the land looks like, r?
This.
It's just cat, there's nowhere to go.
So the water's just going to pile up.
That wasn't necessarily the case down here.
You didn't have major surge in
Sarasota and down further to the South.
You had it all right there in Ft
Myers where that eyewall went i,
where the highest winds went in.
And and this is that's
going to happen here too,
but we're going to start
pumping the water up here.
The National Hurricane Center literally
uses the Tampa Bay area for mock drills.
Because the shelf out here is very shallow.
You got to go out almost 100
miles before it really drops of.
All my spearfishing friends,
they know what I'm talking about right?
Middle grounds out there.
You go 6 miles off the East
Coast and it drops right off.
So when you have wind blowing t,
it's harder to blow that
water up that hill here.
You start blowing wind way out e
6080 miles, you blow that water,
it's it's like a just a small r,
right?
It's a lot easier to blow that
water here on the West Coast and
once it does get to the shore,
we just don't have that much elevation.
Anyways, Dave asked Eric,
you know how far above sea
level are they and he's like 0,
you know,
high tide.
They're at sea level in parts of Crystal
River and obviously that water's coming up.
Now,
as I showed you that graphic be,
the tides now generally are rung
anywhere from about 1:00 to 2:0,
almost 3 inches or three feet,
I should say above normal,
most areas about two feet above normal.
Here are the forecasted winds fr
now through 3:00 AM and then 7:00 AM.
And the key to see is between between
now and about 7:00 AM is where
we're going to see the peak win.
And then after that sun comes u,
storms pulling away and winds st
to come down just a little bit.
So that'll that'll really get us into it.
You can see the wind direction .
This is really important because that's when
the water is going to start to come up.
Four in the morning.
This I think is a little,
I would say three, 2-3 in the morning.
We'll have more of a southwest .
We already got it here at 4:00
in the morning for Saint Pete
and those numbers are coming up.
This is higher than what we have right now,
right? And so it's, yeah,
it wasn't bad earlier getting,
getting breezy, getting windy out there.
Now those numbers are going to
come up as far as wind speeds g.
And then the wind direction reay
gets going as well to change it.
This is that graphic I was talking about,
what the tides are doing right .
So it's hard for, you know,
whoever's watching.
You've got different tide bases
where you're at.
Just know that where your tide should be,
it's probably running almost 2 t
above normal and that should come up.
So if you're looking at a high ,
you think, all right,
high tide at my house should be another foot.
Looking at the tide tables from
where it is right now, Well,
it's already running two feet ae
that and that number will go up, right.
So then you'd add it,
you say 3 feet and that number
is going to go up and say,
so you know,
another four feet could happen
around 3:00 or 4:00 in the morn.
I know it's kind of getting complicated,
but that that 2 foot number is
what you really need to know.
And that's really going to be in these
areas that you see right up in e
especially want to watch Oldsma,
want to watch downtown Tampa ar,
those those are running almost
2 feet above normal right now.
And again,
it's still going to be closer to
about two or three in the mornig
before they really start to peak guys.