NOW IN DECEMBER.
THAT WOULD BE THE FOURTH RATE
HIKE THE FED HAS SAID IT WOULD
GO FORWARD BUT AS WE JUST TEASED
COMING INTO OUR FINAL COMMERCIAL
BREAK THERE WERE TWO MYSTERY MAN
WE SHOWED BEFORE WE TALK TO THE
BREAK.
LET US REVEAL THEIR FACES.
PRESIDENT TRUMP OFTEN TAKES AIM
AT THE FEDS TO ROME POWELL FOR
THE MARKET'S RECENT DECLINE
PETER SHIFT SAYS BOTH PARTIES
WILL BE THE ONE TO BLAME WHEN
THE RECESSION HE SAYS WE ARE
ABOUT TO SEE TAKES FINANCIAL
CRISIS OF 2008 LOOK LIKE THE
ROARING 20s BY COMPARISON.
HE IS HERE AND AUTHOR OF THE
REAL CRASH HE JOINS US BUT IN
THE SPIRIT OF FAIR AND BALANCED
THE MAN IN CHARGE OF THE
TRAINING GROUP AT TD AMERITRADE
EXECUTIVE VICE PRESIDENT STEPHEN
CORTES OCTOBER VOLATILITIES AND
ESPECIALLY WILL BE SEEN OUT IN
NO WAY SIGNALS THE END OF THE
WORLD.
PETER, TO YOU FIRST.
WHY ARE YOU BLAMING BOTH
PRESIDENT TRUMP AND JAY POWELL
OF THE FED?
>> I'M BLAMING BOTH CLINICAL
PARTIES.
THE REPUBLICANS WILL TAKE THE
BLAME BECAUSE IT WILL BLOW UP ON
THEIR WATCH BUT IF YOU WANT TO
NAME NAMES GOT TO GO BACK TO
ALAN GREENSPAN.
HE'S WON THE ROAD THIS PLAYBOOK.
EVERY TIME WE HAD A BEAR MARKET
WHILE GREENSPAN WAS CHAIRMAN OF
THE FEDS HE WOULD QUICKLY
RESTART THE PARTY WITH CHEAP
MONEY AND SO WE SET THIS PROCESS
IN MOTION BUT IT WILL NOT WORK
ANYMORE.
LIZ: WHY IS PRESIDENT TRUMP TO
BLAME?
WHY IS JAY POWELL TO BLAKE?
>> THEY WILL GET BLAMED BECAUSE
THEY ARE THE ALL DIE.
THE PROBLEM STARTED LONG BEFORE
TRUMP WAS ELECTED.
HE CALLED THIS A BIG FAT, UGLY
BUBBLE WHEN HE WAS RUNNING.
LIZ: BUT NOW HE'S THE ONE ASKING
FOR GRACE TO STAY LOW.
ARE YOU SAYING THE FEDERAL
RESERVE SHOULD NOT RAISE IN
DECEMBER, PETER?
OR THEY THEIR CUT RATES?
>> IT SHOULD RAISE RATES FOR THE
MARKETS WILL COLLAPSE AS A
RESULT.
THEY HAVE NOT FIGURED THIS OUT
BUT GIGANTIC - THIS BEAR MARKET
IS NOT GOING TO END QUICKLY LIKE
THE ONE IN 1987.
THIS WILL BE A PROTRACTED BEAR
LIKE THE ONE WE HAD FROM 1966
19661982, 16 YEARS WITHOUT A NEW
HIGH IN MEANWHILE THE COST OF
LIVING WENT UP DRAMATICALLY AND
THE COST OF LIVING WILL RISE
EVEN MORE DRAMATICALLY DURING
THIS SECULAR BEAR MARKET IN
LOOK, THERE'S NOTHING THAT CAN
BE DONE TO STOP THIS BUT
UNFORTUNATELY FOR AMERICA I
THINK THE RHETORIC OF THE
REPUBLICANS AND TRUMP TAX CUTS
WILL GET BLAMED .
LIZ: WERE HEADING TO - WE ARE
NOW HEADING TO MORE SESSION
LOWS.
NOW DOWN ABOUT 411-POINT STEVE,
YOU HAVE THE BENEFIT OF THE TD
AMERICAN TRADE AND YOU CAN CHECK
IN ON THAT HERD AND SEE WHAT
THEY ARE OR NOT DOING?
MASSIVE $1.3 TRILLION AND HOW IS
THE HERD BEHAVING AND ARE YOU
WORRIED ABOUT IS PETER'S?
>> WHAT I WILL DO IS GIVE YOU A
AFFECTION BECAUSE THANK YOU FOR
HAVING ME.
THE VALUE I BRING IS TELLING YOU
WHAT ARE CLIENTS ARE DOING.
LAST TIME I WAS ON, TWO WEEKS
AGO, I TOLD YOU THERE QUITE
CONTRARY AND AS A GROUP SO WHEN
WE SEE SELLOFFS TYPICALLY WE SEE
STRONGER BUYING AND WE NOTICED
IN THE LAST FOUR MONTHS THAT
THAT SENTIMENT HAS DONE BACK IN
OTHER WORDS, THE BUYS AND SELLS
ARE ALMOST EVENLY BALANCED AND
WE ARE SEEING MORE ROTATION INTO
WHAT WE WOULD CALL THE
CYCLICALS, UTILITY, THINGS THEY
THINK LOWER BETA STOCKS THAT
WILL PROTECT THEM SHOULD THEY
CONTINUE TO SEE THIS DOWN MOVE.
I WOULD SAY THEY ARE NOT
OPTIMISTICALLY SAYING THIS WILL
BOUNCE RIGHT BACK BUT THEY ARE
ALSO NOT SAYING IT'S THE END OF
THE WORLD.
LIZ: CORPORATE EARNINGS FOR THE
S&P WE SAW THEM UPGRADED FOR THE
THIRD QUARTER THAT THEY LOOK TO
BE UP ABOUT 25.2% AND WE GOT A
LOT OF BIG NAMES COMING OUT AND
IS THERE AT THE CHANCE THAT SOME
OF THESE NAMES COULD ENGENDER
POSITIVE FEELINGS ABOUT AND FOR
INVESTORS?
I KNOW YOU WERE BEARISH ON THE
US BUT NOT ELSEWHERE.
>> THERE IS A LOT OF OPTIMISM
ABOUT EARNINGS.
UNFORTUNATELY THIS IS PRICED
INTO THE STOCKS.
A LOT OF THE EARNINGS CAME FROM
LOWER TAXES AND A THIRD OF IT
BUT A LOT OF THESE EARNINGS WILL
GO AWAY DURING THIS RECESSION
AND ESPECIALLY AS INTEREST RATES
KEEP RISING BECAUSE COMPANIES
TOOK OUT A LOT OF DEBT DURING
THE BOOM AND NOW HAVE TO SERVICE
THE DEBT OR IN THE BUST AND THE
REVENUES WILL GO DOWN SO
EARNINGS COULD COLLAPSE VERY
QUICKLY AND AS STOCKS GO ALONG
WAY TO FAULT THE MARKET IS
OVERVALUED AND I THINK THERE IS
SO MUCH COMPLACENCY OUT THERE.
RECORD HIGHS, AND SENTIMENT IN
CONSUMER INVESTMENT SENTIMENT
AND SMALL BUSINESS SENTIMENT AND
NO ONE EXPECTED THE RECESSION.
BUT WHEN IT HITS, EVERYONE IS
SURPRISED AND THIS TIME THEY
WILL BE EVEN MORE SURPRISED AND
I THINK IT WILL MAKE THE
RECESSION THAT MUCH WORSE THAN
IT STARTS AND HOW ILL-PREPARED
PEOPLE ARE.
LIZ: I NEED TO POINT OUT
SOMETHING THAT TEN YEAR YIELD.
I'VE BEEN KEEPING MY EYE ON IT
FOR THE LAST 35 MINUTES WHEN WE
CAME INTO THE SHOW WE WERE AT
3.09%, UP TWO BASIS POINTS TO
3.07%.
I ARTICULATE THIS I KNOW IT'S ON
THE LOWER TICKER FOR WE HAVE
FOLKS IN THE CAR LISTENING ON
XM113 OR ON FOXBUSINESS AND THAT
MEANS THERE'S A FEAR IN THE
MARKET AT THE MOMENT AND I'M
PRETTY SURE IT IS MOVING HIGHER
RIGHT NOW PRETTY MUCH
SESSION-THE FEAR COMING IN SPURS
A LIGHT TO QUALITY OR FLIGHT TO
A SAFE HAVEN BUT TALK ABOUT
THINGS THAT PETER MAYBE DOESN'T
SEE.
DECENT GDP NUMBER JUST BE SILLY
FOR THE FIRST PRINT ON THE
RECORDER AND ARE ON THE PLANET
IS LOW AND PETER WAS A ON A
PLANET WAS LOW AND 2007 BEFORE
THE CRASH -
>> YEAH, I WOULD SAY LOOK, I
WILL GIVE YOU IT TO THE EYES OF
OUR CLIENTS.
THEY ARE SAYING EARNINGS ARE
PRETTY GOOD AND HALF THE S&P 500
IS A QUARTER WILL REPORT THIS
WEEK AND ECONOMY LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD.
OBVIOUSLY THERE ARE A LOT OF
CONCERNS WITH TARIFFS AND SO
MANY THINGS GOING ON BUT IF YOU
LOOK AT THE VOLATILITY LEVELS
TODAY IT IS 26, 27 - IF I GO
BACK HISTORICALLY IT WOULD LOSE
LIKE THIS WOULD BE IN THE 30s
AND I'M NOT SAYING IT'S A
PERFECT INDICATOR BUT WHAT OUR
CLIENTS ARE TRAINED TO DO IS
ASSESS WHETHER IT'S AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR THEM TO DIP
THEIR FEET BACK INTO THE WATER
AND GET MORE EXPOSURE OR JUST TO
SIT TIGHT.
LIZ: PETER, WHAT ARE YOU BUYING
OR PUTTING MONEY?
>> EARNINGS ARE ALWAYS GOOD AT
THE BEGINNING OF THEIR MARKETS.
NUMBERS ALWAYS LOOK GOOD.
LIZ: NOW MY QUESTION.
ANSWER MY QUESTION.
>> LOOK, YOU TALK ABOUT FEAR AND
GOAL IS NOT UP-TO-DATE.
GOLD STOCKS ARE ON SALE AND THAT
IS WHERE THE SEALS ARE RIGHT NOW
AND THE GOLD STOCKS ARE - A LOT
OF THE INTERNATIONAL VALUE
STOCKS I'VE BEEN BUYING MANY
STOCKS ARE UP TEN, 20% LAST WEEK
A LOT OF PEOPLE DID NOT NOTICE
THAT BUT AS THIS BEAR MARKET IS
STARTING PEOPLE ARE SHIFTING AND
RELOCATING OUT OF THAT MOMENTUM
TYPE STOCKS IN THE VALUE DEFENSE
NAMES IN THAT BIG A SHIFT WILL
BE OUT OF US STOCKS WHICH ARE
THE BIGGEST BUBBLE INTO THESE
UNDERVALUED FOREIGN STOCKS IN
EMERGING MARKETS AND THAT IS
WHERE THE REAL BUYING