It's no secret: in the wealthiest countries, fewer and fewer people want to have children.
The falling birth rate is practically a generalized phenomenon throughout the developed world.
It seems clear that it is going to become one of the greatest challenges in the very
near future: we are talking about countries that are getting older and have fewer children.
In fact, most developed countries are already well below the replacement rate.
That is, below the 2.1 children per woman of childbearing age that would be needed to
at least keep the population stable, excluding immigration, of course.
However, there is one specific case, a country in which the average child per woman is not
only fewer than two children per woman, but less than one!
We are talking about the country with the lowest birth rate in the world.
And yes, as you may have already guessed, if only by the thumbnail and the title of
this video, I'm talking about South Korea.
Check it out.
Specifically, we are talking about a fertility rate of only 0.78 children per woman in 2022.
A level so low that we could almost say that having children in South Korea has become
an anomaly.
And, take note, because in Seoul this rate is even worse, wait for it, we are talking
about only 0.59 children per woman.
Down to almost a quarter of the replacement rate.
In other words, in this case, it is not that South Korea is going through a demographic
winter, it is that we are practically facing the chronicle of an extinction foretold.
Despite being one of the richest and most advanced countries in the world, South Korea
is facing a colossal problem whose solution is far from simple and which could cause a
demographic catastrophe in this country as never seen before.
A demographic catastrophe and, if things do not change, perhaps an economic one as well.
Even with the strong robotization of industry, if things continue as they are, it is possible
that in a short time there will not be enough workers to keep the economy going: its factories,
its stores, its schools and businesses of all kinds.
And no, we are not exaggerating.
We're not exaggerating at all.
Take a look at this graph: Do you realize what this means?
What you are looking at is South Korea's population projection over the next few decades.
As you can see, as of today the Land of Morning Calm may have already reached its historical
maximum population.
From now on its population will not only be much older, but it will also begin to decrease.
And don't think it will do so slowly.
In the next 40 years this country will lose more than 12 million inhabitants, that is,
25% of its entire population.
In demographic terms, that's a huge drop in population.
And that's not all.
By the end of the century, if the current trend continues, South Korea's population
is expected to shrink to less than half.
From today’s almost 52 million inhabitants to just over 20 million.
There is no other country in the world with such a poor outlook.
We are talking about a scenario in which not only South Koreans may end up disappearing,
but a lot of wealth could be destroyed in the process meaning that those remaining will
face enormous hardship.
Think about it, if the forecasts come true, many of the children being born today will
see their country with half the population when they retire, with all that implies:
More social spending, less savings, less consumption, and so on and so forth.
And, keep in mind, we are not talking about a vague hypothesis, but about a process that
has already begun.
After years with an absolutely plummeting birth rate, there are already many cases in
the country of primary schools, obstetric and pediatric hospitals and services that
are having to close.
Now, many of you may be wondering at this point...
Why on earth is this happening in a country where the economy is supposedly booming and
people are not lacking anything?
What exactly are the reasons why South Koreans no longer want to have children?
What is the government doing to reverse this situation?
Does it have a solution?
Well, in this video we are going to answer these and more questions, so...
Pay attention, because this is the story of the country that is running towards its own
extinction.
(THE FOUR 'NOES')
As you can imagine, a disaster like the one we are describing is not something that just
happens.
There are reasons, and they are neither few nor easy to explain.
But here on VisualPolitik we are going to try to tell you about it in the most summarized
way possible.
You see, the easiest thing to do would be to blame it on low wages, hyper-competitiveness
in South Korea, or that women prefer to focus on their careers rather than put them at risk
to have children.
But...
No, although these factors are partly to blame, they do not explain why South Korea is the
country with the lowest birth rate in the world.
After all, these factors apply elsewhere as well.
So, what on earth has caused the problem in South Korea to reach such a magnitude?
Well, I can tell you in advance that some things will shock you a lot.
On the one hand, South Korean society is perhaps one of the most conservative and traditional
of all developed countries.
And okay, yes, I know what you are thinking, but [host], conservative societies usually
have an advantage when it comes to birth rates, don't they?
Well, no, not always.
One of the problems they have in the Land of the Morning Calm is their extremely puritanical
or traditional way of understanding motherhood and family models.
In fact, there is virtually only one family model: the one formally composed between a
woman and a man.
And then the children, of course.
Anything outside this framework is effectively left out of the system, and South Korean society
loses a lot of opportunities to solve, or at least mitigate, its major childlessness
problem.
But as I know that what I have said may be surprising and that some of you are probably
shocked, we are going to give you data and concrete examples...
For example, in South Korea, only 2.9 percent of babies born in 2021 were born out of wedlock,
while the OECD average is, – wait for it – FORTY percent, 16 times higher.
Nearly forty percent of children in South Korea are simply not born.
In other words, in South Korean society it’s inconceivable to have children without a traditional
marriage.
Being married is a prerequisite for having children.
And no, it is not that they are religiously or socially very different or that they have
more appetite for marriage, which I already told you they do not.
It is a matter, above all a cultural one.
In the case of single mothers, for example, many face the judgment of a society in which
honor and what people will say still carry a lot of weight.
And what can I say?
In South Korea, having a child out of wedlock is frowned upon.
And let's not even talk about same-sex families.
In general, all these things are considered bad for children in this country.
And, while children in the rest of the developed world don’t appear to be turning out so
badly, in this video we are not going to debate family structures, what we care about here
is the impact this rigid attitude has on birth rates.
The fact is that all this cultural pressure forces women to make a choice: to look for
a husband at all costs in order to have children, or to forego motherhood and focus on themselves
and their professional careers.
And yes, that's exactly what many women are doing, choosing this second option.
We'll tell you why in more detail later.
But the fact is that in the end, fewer and fewer women are willing to have children,
which, logically, contributes to the fact that the birth rate is at rock bottom.
But, wait a minute because it's not all bad news.
Fortunately, society is also changing and little by little, more and more people are
accepting motherhood outside of traditional marriage.
For example, in the 10 years between 2012 and 2022, acceptance of single motherhood
has grown by more than 12 points, from just over 22% to nearly 35% of respondents.
Of course, public institutions are still slower at making progress.
For example, the South Korean Mother and Child Health Act's definition of sub-fertility explicitly
refers to a "married couple".
That is, there is no other possibility for receiving fertility treatment support.
One way or another, the system excludes single women from access to fertility or in vitro
fertilization treatments.
What's more, the South Korean Bioethics and Safety Act says that anyone seeking to perform
IVF treatment must have the consent of their partner.
In other words, it is taken for granted that these treatments are exclusively for couples,
which means that in South Korea it is, in practice, impossible for a woman alone to
have access to them.
And not only that, apart from what the law itself says, the South Korean Church is also
fervently opposed to these techniques for unmarried women.
Keep in mind we are talking about a country where the relationship between politicians
and religious congregations is usually very close.
And VisualPolitik viewers, all this becomes even more important if we take into account
another problem that young South Korean women today do not want to deal with.
Basically the traditional roles that still exist in South Korean society regarding motherhood
and marriage.
You could say that the professional and personal ambitions of young women in this country have
changed much faster than the perception of their role in society.
For example, it is very, very common in South Korea for men to leave the burden of raising
children to women, even if the woman works.
In South Korea, children are strictly women's business...
And logically, this is not easy to reconcile with modern life and the legitimate personal
and professional aspirations of hundreds and thousands, millions of women.
It's something we've told you many times on VisualPolitik: narratives count.
And, no, we are not talking about "hetero-patriarchy" or anything like that, but about social roles
that in the vast majority of the West have already been overcome, but the same has not
happened in South Korea, nor in Asia in general.
And then, of course, there is also the issue of salaries, the desire for careers and extremely
expensive housing, something we have talked about in previous videos.
Well, the fact is that the sum of all these reasons has led more and more young women
to feel that marriage and motherhood are an unnecessary burden, or rather a problem that
they have no desire to face.
Do you want an eye-popping fact?
According to a 2020 survey, 42.5% of South Koreans in their thirties were not married,
13 points higher than in 2010.
(Romance booming in South Korea, but marriage no longer the end game – The Japan Times)
In fact, of all households in South Korea, as many as four out of 10 are single-person
households, and 2022 saw the lowest number of marriages since 1970, with fewer than 192,000.
In South Korea, young women are less and less willing to get married and take on all that
this entails in the culture and society of this country.
And you have already seen that without marriage there are no children either, or at least
there are far fewer of them.
What’s more, divorce is also a taboo in Korean society.
Despite being legal, many women who divorce face some form of discrimination, although
it is becoming more socially accepted thanks to contemporary Korean TV series and films.
This means that a woman is acutely aware that, if she gets married, she could have a hard
time after divorce if things go wrong.
And this, of course, makes many of them even more hesitant to get married nowadays.
But there's more.
As much as this may surprise you, there is even a women's movement known as the four
no's: no dating, no sex with men, no marriage and no children.
The traditional family is becoming less and less popular among young people in this country.
And as you can see, the way things are set up has consequences.
But, at this point and now that you know what the main causes of this demographic debacle
are, many of you may be asking yourselves a question: what on earth is the government
doing to try to solve this situation?
Can it do anything?
Well, the truth is that yes, they have done and continue to do things.
But you could say that... basically, it seems as if they were desperately trying to do things
blindly.
Do you want to hear what is probably the funniest part of this whole story?
Well, pay close attention.
(KILLING FLIES WITH CANNONS)
Let me ask you a question, what if I told you that South Korea has squandered $200 billion
over the last 16 years on policies to encourage birth rates, and yet they have achieved absolutely
nothing at all?
$200 billion later the number of births is at historic lows.
[Which, by the way, is a warning to all those politicians who think that this matter can
be solved with a checkbook].
It turns out, the South Korean State has squandered some $12.5 billion dollars every year on birthrate
management policies.
This is more or less the budget that a country like Spain allocates to defense annually.
And as you can see, the result has been... zilch.
Could it be that South Korea is the perfect example of how the birth rate cannot be encouraged
with public money?
Well, maybe yes, maybe we are facing the wildest example we can see.
But that’s not the worst of it, the worst is that the government continues to opt for
this path despite admitting that it does not work.
(31 August 2022: Korea to Triple Baby Payments After It Smashes Own Record for World's Lowest
Fertility Rate – Bloomberg)
To give you an idea, President Yoon has announced that he would triple the baby check already
in place for the first two years of a newborn's life.
This is an increase from the 300,000 won set by former President Moon Jae-in [Pron Moon
Tsae-een] to one million won, which is slightly more than $750 per month.
And let's not fool ourselves, the result will probably not change anything.
In rich countries like South Korea, having or not having children has more to do with
social and cultural factors and less to do with economic problems.
("If the environment is right and when people feel they are protected and encouraged to
have children, they will have babies even if they are told not to.
Cash incentives alone can't really make much progress in boosting child births."
– Chung Ick-joong, social welfare professor at Ewha Womans University)
Of course, the truth is that even this measure – probably as useless as the previous one
– is better than other crazy ideas that South Korean politicians have come up with
to deal with this problem.
Some of them are so crazy that anyone would think that they are desperate, just grasping
at straws.
You don't believe us?
Think we're exaggerating?
Well, take note.
Some time ago, for example, a dozen legislators put forward a proposal to flood the country
with foreign nannies paid below minimum wage.
In fact, the proposal included waiving the minimum wage for foreign nannies.
This is something that has already been done in countries such as Singapore under the excuse
that conditions are still much better than in their home countries.
Nevertheless, it is something that raised a lot of criticism in South Korea.
Then there was also a proposal to exempt men who have three or more children before the
age of 30 from compulsory military service.
The problem is that men are the only ones who are obliged to do military service and,
what can I tell you?
No matter how many men are willing to get rid of the annoying military service in this
way, if there are no women willing to have children, it’s a useless measure.
But wait a minute because now comes the really good part.
The two things I’m about to tell you now have come true, this is not a joke.
Check it out.
(31 December 2016: South Korea pulls website mapping women of prime age to have children.
South Korea has closed a government website showing the number of women aged between 15
and 49 - of childbearing age - by city district and region after a public outcry.
[Users could look up how many women between those ages resided in their neighbourhood
for the past 10 years.
– The Guardian) It's like a kind of Farmer Wants a Wife except
strictly online and where the women have no idea they’ve been selected for the show
and no one even asked them if they wanted to get married.
Not to worry though, it’s promoted by the government...
Don't you think it's brilliant?....
Anyway.
Well, if that has caught your attention, you ain't seen nothing yet.
In South Korea there are local governments that have been subsidizing the [HOST: air
quotes] "purchase" of foreign wives.
Yes, yes, that’s what I said.
(19 February 2019: South Korea's local subsidies encourage foreign 'bride buying'; brides from
Uzbekistan 'most expensive'
More than 35 municipal governments [...] have implemented by-laws providing marriage subsidies
to local men who tie the knot with foreign brides – The Straits Times)
We are talking about a whole ‘mail order bride’ industry that has been around for
a few years now in Korea.
In fact, it seems to have really taken off.
Even in Seoul itself there are numerous establishments, businesses, where you can go, choose a woman
from a catalog and then, after paying a certain fee, these companies arrange for these women
to fly to South Korea to marry you.
Obviously, not in a forced way...
But even so, it's crazy.
South Korea is, along with Taiwan, the Asian country where this practice is most common.
For some, this is a clear example of human trafficking, but for others it is nothing
more than an intermediation like any other.
In fact, this type of activity has a name: they are called marriage brokers.
And take note, there are almost 400 of them throughout the country.
And I don't know, what do you want me to say?
Moral considerations aside, perhaps the fact that there are public administrations subsidizing
these operations with up to almost $10,000 dollars crosses all lines.
And yes, that is exactly what some municipalities do.
The result?
You can see it perfectly in this graph.
Be that as it may, as you have seen, South Korea has a birth rate problem so severe that
it may put the country itself on the road to its own extinction.
A problem that, far from improving, is only getting worse.
More and more women are rejecting motherhood and marriage.
And that in a society and under institutions that are still unable to accept other types
of motherhood or familial roles and adapt public policies is a serious problem.
But, at this point, it's your turn.
Do you think South Korea could reverse its enormous demographic problem with other kinds
of public policies?
Has the old model of believing that to have children you just need to give away more and
more money failed?
What do you think of the proposals and policies that are being promoted in South Korea to
get more children born?
Leave us your opinion below, in the comments.
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