These two ships are from the Chinese coast guard,
and the ship they're targeting with high-powered water cannons
is a Philippine supply vessel.
We've been here for almost three hours
and the situation has gotten more tense.
An international court says the Philippines
has the right to extract resources in these waters.
Since the threat has grown,
we must do more to defend our territory.
China doesn't see it that way.
It's the sixth time in eight months
this kind of incident has happened,
and it's a growing problem for the world.
The Philippines is an ally of the United States.
Second Thomas Shoal is the most dangerous flashpoint
today between the United States and China.
This is truly a crisis waiting to happen.
China and the Philippines have wrangled over
control of these waters for decades.
But in the past year, tensions are close
to the highest they've ever been. Why?
We are on board a Philippine Coast Guard ship
in the middle of the South China Sea,
and this is the closest we've ever been
to a Chinese coast guard vessel.
It seems to be blocking our way.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is keen for more journalists
to see the increasingly fractious confrontations with Chinese vessels.
The Philippine Coast Guard vessel was escorting
this green boat to Second Thomas Shoal.
It was a routine mission to rotate and resupply troops on this rusty ship
from the World War II era that's been stationed there since 1999.
A grounded ship known as the Sierra Madre has become a de facto base
for the Philippines, who use it as an outpost to protect its own sovereignty.
This shoal has also been the area
of much tensions over the past months.
There have been reports of clashes
and water cannoning against Philippine boats
even before we came in there.
Second Thomas Shoal is part of the many reefs and shoals
in the Spratly Islands, which are much closer to the Philippines
in the South China Sea than China.
The waterway encompasses 1.4 million square miles,
larger than the Mediterranean.
Much of the sea is disputed.
China, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, the Philippines,
and Taiwan all claim specific land features.
It's a thriving fishing zone yielding some 10% of global catch
and a vast amount of trade transits through.
In 2016, that amounted to some $3 trillion,
including more than 30% of the global maritime crude oil trade.
Critically, it also holds very promising oil and gas deposits, something that
each of the claimant nations would love to get their hands on in the coming years.
If the Philippines can extract these resources,
it could be a real benefit
as the gas field that supplies 20% of the Philippine main island’s
power is forecast to be depleted within the next three years.
But here's the catch.
China claims the biggest patch of the South China Sea,
making it difficult for the Philippines to tap into these reserves.
China asserts this area is a part of its territory,
citing a map from 1947.
In 2016, a UN-backed court ruled
that China's claim of historic rights was unlawful and
the Philippines has the sovereign right to extract resources like fish and oil.
China, of course, rejects the ruling outright.
But until now, the Philippines has had a very difficult time
to enforce the ruling, even though it was in its favor.
It doesn't quite have the military capacity to enforce those rules.
UNCLOS itself doesn’t have the ability to enforce.
It's not just fishing and energy.
These waters hold military and strategic value for all of the area's claimants
and crucially, the US.
Maintaining freedom of navigation is a global interest
for the United States, and it is important in the South China Sea.
But there's also other interests, I think,
that the United States has, and that is international law
of protecting the ability of countries to really exercise sovereignty.
And for the smaller countries
that are claimants in the South China Sea,
their livelihood for many of their people depend on those resources.
So China wants to assert its sovereignty
and deny US military access in the region.
From reefs and corals
to military bases,
this is what it's been building in the last decade.
Over time, we're seeing
the establishment of airstrips, of listening posts, of refueling stations
so that China can send its vessels to those islands,
and to be able to better patrol
much of the greater South China Sea.
Today, Chinese operate Navy ships,
coast guard vessels,
maritime militia 24/7
around virtually every feature that is disputed.
From the beginning of our first sighting of the Chinese Navy vessel
we were with Chinese vessels the whole time.
Even when we were going back to the mainland,
Chinese vessels were following us.
I felt like we were constantly being watched.
This is Thitu Island.
Here, the Marcos government is rushing to develop the land
so it can try to hold its own against the threat from China.
But this has resulted in tensions nearby.
Things haven't always been so heated.
Remember that ruling that gave
the Philippines rights to resources?
Former President Rodrigo Duterte said he didn't want to risk a war
by trying to enforce that decision.
So he decided to seek better ties with China over the US.
His presidency was a real test
for the US-Philippine alliance.
He rolled out the Build Build Build program,
trying to draw in more investment for infrastructure projects,
including from China.
Chinese loans and grants to the Philippines jumped
from $1.6 million in 2016 to $621 million in 2020.
A lot of those projects,
whether they be from the Belt and Road Initiative
or otherwise, never materialized.
In the last few years of his presidency,
Duterte softened his view on the US,
once again allowing joint military exercises to take place.
In comes Marcos in 2022,
and relations with the US got even warmer.
Marcos has embraced a much more
assertive posture in the South China Sea.
A big part of his strategy is transparency.
I think the trip managed to somewhat
expose China's aggressive actions in the South China Sea.
China has maintained its actions are legitimate.
A year into his presidency,
Marcos gave the US access to four additional military sites.
Three of these locations are close to Taiwan,
a self-ruled democracy that China considers its own
and has vowed to take by force if necessary.
Taiwan is always nervous about whether the United States
would come to its aid in the event that China tried to seize Taiwan by force.
If the Philippines were to get caught in
a hot conflict with China,
and the United States’ response, as I believe that it would,
come to the Philippines aid, I think that that would increase the confidence of
US allies all around the world.
The US and the Philippines have a mutual defense treaty
dating back to 1951,
and the circumstances that may trigger US involvement
have become more clear recently.
If any serviceman,
Filipino serviceman is killed by an attack from any foreign power,
then that is time to invoke the mutual defense treaty.
Any attack on Philippine aircraft, vessels or armed forces,
in the South China Sea would invoke our mutual defense treaty.
But no one wants to start a war over rocks and reefs.
Just very recently that the US
and Chinese military officials finally were able to gather
in a meeting that hasn't taken place in well over a year.
The last thing anyone would like is for conflict to arise.
This is not poking the bear, as it were.
We are trying to do quite the opposite.
Still, the combination of new leadership in Manila,
rival claims on resources,
and the presence of Chinese and US military ships
mean any accident can lead to unexpected consequences.
Leave immediately.
At one point, I was concerned that the smaller boat
would sink and will not be able to withstand that much spray of water.
Even from where we were, we saw how forceful it was.
Wars have been started over a lot less.
Southeast Asian leaders are anxious over the prospect of a war
between the US and China, two partners that they depend on dearly,
whether it be over Taiwan or in the South China Sea.