A HISTORIAN AND STAFF WRITER AT
THE ATLANTIC, SHE HAS WRITTEN
EXTENSIVELY ON THE RISE OF
AUTHORITARIANISM AND SHE JOINS
ME NOW FROM WARSAW.
AND, IT'S ALWAYS GREAT TO HAVE
YOU ON THE SHOW.
SO, LET'S TALK ABOUT THIS
AFRICAN SUMMIT THAT IS JUST
WRAPPED UP IN ST. PETERSBURG.
17 AFRICAN LEADERS ATTENDED
COMPARED WITH 43 IN 2019.
AND THEY ISSUED A FOR JOINT
STATEMENTS.
ONE OF UNITY, A READ THAT YOU.
RUSSIA AND AFRICAN COUNTRIES
AGREED TO PURSUE COMPENSATION
FOR COLONIALISM,, RETURN OF
CULTURAL AFFECTS, ET CETERA.
BUT THEN THE RETURN OF THE
AFRICAN UNION GOES ON TO SAY,
PUTIN'S GREEN OFFER IS NOT
SUFFICIENT, OBVIOUSLY THE
SCREEN OFFER AFTER HE PULLED
OUT OF THE GRAIN DEAL WITH
UKRAINE, SAYING THAT RUSSIA
ALONE CAN SUPPLEMENT GRAIN TO
AFRICAN COUNTRIES.
THE CHAIR SAYS ACS FILE IS
NEEDED AND THEN WENT ON TO SAY,
PUTIN HAS SHOWN READINESS TO
NEGOTIATE WITH UKRAINE AND NOW
THE QUOTE, OTHER SIDE NEEDS TO
BE PERSUADED.
WHAT SHOULD BE READ INTO THIS
SUMMIT, IT'S OUTCOME, AND
RUSSIA'S CONTINUED INFLUENCE IN
AFRICA?
>> SO, I THINK FIRST OF ALL, WE
CAN READ INTO THIS SUMMIT THE
FACT THAT PUTIN IS LOSING
INFLUENCE IN AFRICA.
THIS HAS BEEN TRUE FOR SOMETIME.
I THINK THE ENDING OF THE GRAIN
EXPORT ARRANGEMENT WITH UKRAINE
AND THE BOMBING OF THE PORT IN
ODESSA HAS HAD AN IMPACT.
WE'VE HEARD SEVERAL AFRICAN
LEADERS CAN CRITICIZE HIM FOR
THAT.
I THINK THE RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA
IS BEGINNING TO FALL APART
BECAUSE PROPAGANDA WORKS WHEN
THERE IS SOME GRAIN OF TRUTH TO
IT, OR WHEN THERE'S SOMETHING
ABOUT IT THAT PEOPLE WANT TO
BELIEVE.
BUT THE FACT IS THAT PUTIN IS
DESTROYING THE GRAIN TRADE.
HE HAS CREATED A MUCH HIGHER
INTERNATIONAL PRICES.
AND THAT IS HARD TO HIDE.
YOU HAVE, YOU HAVE A SERIES OF
LEADERS WHO ARE REALLY NO
LONGER WILLING TO MEET WITH HIM
AND ARE NO LONGER WILLING TO
REPEAT WHAT HE HAS BEEN SAYING.
I THINK RUSSIA STILL HAS A LOT
OF INFLUENCE IN AFRICA, PARTLY
THROUGH THE WAGNER GROUP WHICH
IS ANOTHER INTRIGUING AND
STRANGE ASPECT OF THIS WHOLE
STORY.
THE WAGNER GROUP KEEPS SEVERAL
AFRICAN DICTATORSHIPS.
THEY ALSO HAVE AN INTEREST IN
MAINTAINING THE LINKS TO
RUSSIA.
BUT I'M NOT SURE THAT THIS
SUMMIT IS REALLY A
DEMONSTRATION OF RUSSIAN
STRENGTH OR RUSSIAN INFLUENCE.
>> THE BIGGEST TAKEAWAY IT
APPEARS FOR MANY INCLUDING
MYSELF IS THE PHOTO OF THE
FORMER HEAD, THE CURRENT HEAD,
I DON'T KNOW WHAT HIS ROLE IS
RIGHT NOW OF WAGNER, YEVGENY
PRIGOZHIN.
WE DO KNOW THAT HE SEEMS TO BE
ALIVE AND WELL.
THUS FAR IN ST. PETERSBURG.
AND THERE YOU SEE HIM STANDING
WITH A CENTRAL AFRICAN
REPUBLICAN REPRESENTATIVE.
YOU TALK ABOUT THE ROLE AND THE
RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN WAGNER AND
THESE AFRICAN COUNTRIES.
ONCE AGAIN, IT DOES APPEAR TO
NOT ONLY QUESTION WHAT, IF ANY,
RESPONSE PUTIN WILL HAVE
AGAINST PRIGOZHIN GIVEN THAT
FAILED MUTINY.
BUT ALSO, THE POWER THAT HE
DOESN'T STILL SEEM TO WIELD
WITH THESE COUNTRIES.
>> ONE OF THE THINGS I THINK WE
FAILED TO UNDERSTAND, OR SOME
PEOPLE FAILED UNDERSTAND WAS
THE IMPORTANCE THAT WAGNER HAS
FOR PUTIN AND FOR THE KIND OF
KREMLIN NETWORK MORE BROADLY.
WAGNER IS RUSSIA'S FOREIGN
POLICY IN AFRICA.
WAGNER IS ALSO PROBABLY HIS
SOURCE OF A LOT OF MONEY FOR
PUTIN CRONIES.
IT IS NOT SO EASY TO JUST CUT
HIM OFF OR GET RID OF HIM.
THEY CREATED HIM OVER MANY
YEARS AS A KIND OF, AS I SAY,
AN ALTERNATE FORM OF FOREIGN
POLICY.
HE DOES THE DIRTY WORK IN
AFRICA.
HE SUPPORTS DICTATORSHIPS, HE
SENDS IN MERCENARIES TO HELP
PEOPLE OUT.
AT THE SAME TIME, HE CONTROLS
SUPPOSEDLY A GOLD MINE, OTHER
KINDS OF NATURAL RESOURCES AND
EXPLOITS THEM, THEN THAT MONEY
GOES BACK TO MOSCOW.
JUST ELIMINATING THAT TURNED
OUT TO BE TOO DIFFICULT.
EVEN AFTER HE RAN THAT
EXTRAORDINARY REBELLION.
AND SO, I THINK WHAT WE ARE
SEEING IS, AGAIN, THE
DEVELOPMENT, THE VISIBLE, I
SHOULD SAY, DEVELOPMENT OF
CRACKS WITHIN THE RUSSIAN
LEADERSHIP.
THERE ARE PROBABLY ALREADY
THERE, WE JUST WEREN'T ABLE TO
SEE THEM SO CLEARLY.
DIFFERENT PEOPLE HAVE DIFFERENT
INTERESTS AND THEY'RE BEGINNING
TO COMPETE WITH ONE ANOTHER.
>> SO WHAT DOES THIS SAY ABOUT
PUTIN'S MINDSET RIGHT NOW?
NOT ONLY IS HE MANAGING A WAR
THAT CLEARLY DIDN'T GO AS HE
HAD PLANNED, BUT ALSO NOW THE
AFTERMATH OF THIS FAILED
MUTINY.
THERE IS NEW REPORTING FROM THE
WASHINGTON POST THIS WEEK, FROM
SOURCES IN U.S. INTELLIGENCE,
CONFIRMING THAT VLADIMIR PUTIN
SEEMS TO HAVE JUST FROZEN FOR
24 HOURS OR SO WHEN THIS MUTINY
WAS TAKING PLACE.
EVEN THOUGH HE APPARENTLY HAD
BEEN GIVEN A HEADS UP.
YOUR RECENT PIECE ON THE
REBELLION ARGUED THAT AFTER
SPENDING YEARS OF CULTIVATING
PUBLIC APATHY, THE RUSSIAN
PRESIDENT FOUND HIS PEOPLE
INDIFFERENT TO HIS OWN FAITH.
I RECENTLY INTERVIEWED RUSSIAN
JOURNALIST MCHALE AND HE SAID
THAT ALL OF HIS SOURCES
CONFIRMED THAT PUTIN'S DECISION
ARE A BIT STRANGE.
HOW SHOULD WE BE INTERPRETING
ALL OF THIS?
>> SO, JUST TO EXPLAIN WHAT I
WROTE, FOR MANY, MANY YEARS THE
RUSSIAN STATE HAS BEEN
ENCOURAGING CITIZENS TO BE
APATHETIC.
THEY DO THIS DELIBERATELY.
THEY DO IT BY ADMITTING
CONFUSING AND CONTRACTING
PROPAGANDA, BY DISCOURAGING
PEOPLE FROM FORMING ANY KIND OF
INDEPENDENT GROUPS OR
ASSOCIATIONS.
NEVER MIND POLITICS OR
POLITICAL PARTIES.
AND THEN WHEN THERE WAS A REAL
ATTACK ON THE RUSSIAN STATE OR
ON THE RUSSIAN ARMY, IT MEANT
THAT CITIZENS WERE APATHETIC
ABOUT THAT TOO.
EVEN MORE STRANGE WAS WHEN
WAGNER AND HIS MEN WERE
ESSENTIALLY THE MILITARY
CAPITAL OF THE CITY FROM WHICH
THE OPERATIONS IN UKRAINE ARE
BEING RUN.
PEOPLE WALKING ON THE STREET
SEEM TO WELCOME IN.
THEY BROUGHT THEM BOTTLES OF
WATER AND ICE CREAM, ALL KINDS
OF OTHER THINGS.
YOU KNOW, IT WAS ALMOST AS IF
FINALLY THERE WERE POLITICS TO
FOLLOW.
THERE WAS AN INTEREST,
SOMETHING INTERESTING TO LISTEN
TO SOMEONE, SAYING SOMETHING A
LITTLE DIFFERENT.
THEY ALMOST SEEMED INTERESTED
IN INTRIGUED BY IT.
BECAUSE HE SHUT DOWN
CONVERSATION SO MUCH, ALMOST
ANY APPEARANCE, ANYTHING OUT OF
THE UNUSUAL SUDDENLY BECOMES
IMPORTANT AND SIGNIFICANT.
I THINK THE PRIGOZHIN REBELLION,
THE AFTER EFFECT OF THAT
CONTINUES.
PEOPLE WANT TO KNOW WHAT IS
HAPPENING NEXT.
WHO IS GOING TO BE THE NEXT
CHALLENGER?
WHERE WILL THE NEXT CRACK
BECOME VISIBLE?
IN A WAY, THE PROGRESSION
REBELLION WE STARTED A
POLITICAL CONVERSATION IN
MOSCOW IN A CITY THAT HAD BEEN
PRETTY DEAD.
>> KREMLIN PROPAGANDA DIDN'T
EVEN KNOW HOW TO RESPOND TO
THIS ATTEMPTED MUTINY BECAUSE
THEY WERE GIVEN NO DIRECT
ORDERS FROM THE KREMLIN AS TO
HOW TO RESPOND.
GO AHEAD.
>> NO DIRECT ORDERS AND PUTIN
HIMSELF LEFT THE CAPITOL, HE
DISAPPEARED.
SO, FIRST GIVING A SPEECH IN
WHICH HE VIRTUALLY COMPARED
HIMSELF TO NICHOLAS THE SECOND.
YOU START TALKING ABOUT THE
RUSSIAN REVOLUTION, WHICH WAS
CLEARLY ON HIS MIND.
AND THEN HE VANISHED WHICH LEFT
PEOPLE SPECULATING THAT HE LEFT
THE CITY OF MOSCOW, PREPARING
FOR AN INVASION.
PEOPLE WERE DIGGING DITCHES
OUTSIDE THE CITY.
THEY WERE GIVEN A CURFEW AND
TOLD TO STAY HOME FROM WORK.
SO IT WAS A, IT LEFT A MARK AS
PROBABLY THE FIRST TIME THAT
THE WAR IN UKRAINE HAS REALLY
BEEN BROUGHT HOME TO PEOPLE IN
THE CAPITAL CITY.
>> AND IT'S STILL RAISES
QUESTIONS ABOUT HIS ACTUAL
POPULARITY AMONGST RUSSIAN
PEOPLE AT HOME.
IT'S VERY DIFFICULT TO CONDUCT
POLLING IN THE COUNTRY.
YOU TALK ABOUT THE APATHY THAT
IS FELT THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY.
HE STILL SEEMS TO BE QUITE
POPULAR, AT LEAST WITH SOME
PART OF THE POPULATION.
I WAS REALLY STRUCK, IT'S
ALMOST COMICAL IF THIS WASN'T A
REALITY.
RUSSIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY
SPOKESWOMAN SAID ON OUR QUOTE,
THE CORONENE HATE AND ARE VERY
AGGRESSIVE TOWARDS PUTIN
EXACTLY BECAUSE THEY WANT HIM
TO BE PRESIDENT.
.
WE CAN QUESTION HOW RUSSIANS
FEEL ABOUT VLADIMIR PUTIN.
I WOULD ARGUE THAT IT IS PRETTY
APPARENT HOW UKRAINIANS FEEL
ABOUT HIM.
>> IT IS PRETTY APPARENT.
THAT IS A WEIRD FORM OF RUSSIAN
PROPAGANDA WILL TRY TO PROJECT
THEIR OWN PROBLEMS ON TO OTHER
PEOPLE.
WHAT THEY'RE TRYING TO TELL US
IS THAT RUSSIANS ARE NOT
RESPECTING PUTIN ENOUGH, AND
THEREFORE SHE'S TRYING TO FIND
HATRED SOMEWHERE ELSE.
WHO KNOWS, THEY'RE THINKING IS
VERY CONVOLUTED.
ONE OF THE ASPECTS OF RUSSIAN
PROPAGANDA THAT MAKES IT HARD
FOR OUTSIDERS TO UNDERSTAND IS
THAT THEY DELIBERATELY SAY
THINGS THAT ARE CONFUSING AND
CONTRADICTORY.
PRECISELY TWINKLE SAY RIGHT,
I'M NO IDEA WHAT IS GOING ON, I
HAVE NO IDEA WHAT IS TRUE.
EVERYTHING IS FAKE, I'M STAYING
AWAY FROM POLITICS, I DON'T
WANT TO KNOW ANYTHING AT ALL.
I THINK THAT WAS YET ANOTHER
CONTRIBUTION TO THAT GENRE.
REMEMBER, THE RUSSIANS ARE NOW
IN A VERY DIFFICULT POSITION OF
HAVING TO EXPLAIN WHY IT IS
THAT THE UKRAINIANS ARE MAKING
PROGRESS, WHILE HAVING GIVEN UP.
WHY THEY AREN'T RUSSIANS.
REMEMBER, THE WAR BEGAN BECAUSE
PUTIN SAID THAT UKRAINE IS PART
OF RUSSIA.
AS SOON AS WE WALK INTO KYIV,
EVERYONE WILL BE GONE.
NOW THAT HAS HAPPENED.
IT IS BEEN MORE THAN A YEAR AND
A HALF.
AND THEY NEWT EXPLANATIONS.
THE BEGINNING TO RUN SHORT OF
THEM.
>> AND THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE TO
EXPLAIN SOMEHOW WHY RUSSIA IS
NOW APPARENTLY WEAPON SHOPPING
IN THE HERMIT STATE OF NORTH
KOREA AS WELL.
APPLEBAUM, ALWAYS GOOD TO HAVE
YOU ON AND YOUR PERSPECTIVE,
THANK, YOU WE APPRECIATE IT.