Judy: As lawmakers return from
their summer recess, their focus
is sharpening even more on the
midterm elections.
The future balance of power in
congress will be decided in just
60 days from today.
Democrats currently hold a
slight majority in the house of
representatives, with the party
holding 222 seats to
Republicans's 213.
Republicans are aiming to
reclaim the majority, but a
fluid political environment
impacted by a confluence of
social and political issues has
tempered hopes of a red wave.
Earlier this year Republicans
were forecasted to win at least
20 to 30 additional seats.
That's now dropped to around 10
to 20.
Following this all closely is
David Wasserman of the cook
political report.
He joins me now.
Welcome back.
This is a significant change in
your forecast.
How firm is it?
David: Republicans have some
structural advantages in the
house they didn't in the senate.
They were able to gerrymander
more states than Democrats.
In terms of retirements, there
are 38 house Democrats not
seeking reelection compared to
only 27 house Republicans.
About 15 of those democratic
open seats are vulnerable to
Republican takeover, and in
terms of candidate recruitment,
Republicans have succeeded --
did succeed in 2020 by
nominating a lot of candidates
who look and sound like trump.
They are trying to repeat that
but the environment has shifted
since three months ago.
Democrats are more energized
post jobs.
-- Post Dobbs.
Judy: The supreme court decision
on abortion.
David: Right, and that has had
an impression.
Recently we've seen immigrants
on a special election hot streak
where in five straight elections
for the house, they have over
performed the 2020 margin
between Biden and trump,
including flipping Alaska, which
is probably attributable to
Republicans nominating an
unlikable candidate, but still
Republicans cannot ignore it.
Judy: A mix of things in this
political environment right now.
We are 60 days out.
Typically, you see some
connection between a president's
approval rating and how his
party does in midterm elections.
What is that equation looking
like?
David: If you put president
Biden's approval rating in
historical context, Democrats
should still was the house, he
is at 43% according to the 538
average.
Donald Trump was at 41% when
Republicans lost 40 seats and
controlled the house in 2018,
but what we are seeing is
immigrants succeeding in taking
the spotlight onto Republicans
more and off of president Biden.
The abortion issue has done
that.
In addition, the fact that gas
prices are down about 20% since
June, it has taken the bite out
of the message on inflation.
We've also seen primaries
pulling Republicans to the
right.
Judy: Meaning you have
candidates further to the right
running against Democrats.
That says -- what does that mean
for Democrats?
David: It is not to the same
extent as the senate, where
Republican primaries have
produced uniquely flawed
challengers helping Democrats
prospects.
For the most part Republicans
have nominated candidates that
don't look like or sound like
Donald Trump in suburban
districts, but there are
exceptions, like in round
rapids, Michigan, where a pro
impeachment incumbent lost to a
trump-endorsed challenger.
That is a seat where they have a
better opportunity to flip the
district.
In Virginia's seventh district,
Abigail spanberger, a Democrat,
might win election -- reelection
against a candidate from the
freedom caucus who has held a
100% pro-life position.
Judy: A lot of effective
abortion on this.
If you look at the most closely
contested districts, do you see
the abortion decision affecting
what voters are thinking and how
fluid is that situation right
now?
David: It has handed Democrats
their phone message and they are
trying to make the supreme court
more of the incumbent than Joe
Biden.
When midterms are a referendum
on the incumbent president it
typically doesn't go well for
their party.
Right now, we've got 213 seats
that are at least leaning to
Republicans in our ratings, 190
seats leaning toward Democrats
and 32 toss ups.
That means Republicans only need
to win five of the 30 22 win the
majority but it might be smaller
gains than we expected three
months ago.
Judy: The other question is
former president trump.
Clearly he is endorsing
candidates and he is in the news
every single day.
What effect do you see him
having?
David: It is unconventional
because his goal all year has
not been to get Republicans the
biggest majority, it's to purge
the party of those who have
crossed him in the past.
That works in Democrats favor
because in some of the suburban
districts that trump lost, that
is the battleground.
Those are the districts that
will be deciding how large
Republican gains are, and if it
is a very narrow majority in
2023, that will mean a difficult
house for Kevin Mccarthy to
manage.
Judy: Very quickly, how much
could the forecast change
between now and election day?
David: We are in a very
politically fluid environment
and this is one of the strangest
midterm years we have covered
because it is like whiplash.
In the spring, Republicans, aced
on line .1% inflation, I'd and
at 38%, it looks like -- looked
like they would have a huge tail
wind at their back.
Now we are looking at
crosswinds.
Judy: Very different.
David Wasserman, thank you very
much.
David: Thanks a lot, Judy.