According to Toyota there is no demand for EVs, and you know what I am inclined to agree
them.
Sure there were the extreme environmentalists in the early days who bought Toyota Prius
hybrids, and eventually a LEAF when they were fully electric but this was a small market.
They didn’t buy these vehicles for a better driving experience.
ADVANTAGES Although these basic electric cars did come
with a few advantages, like lower cost of ownership, although cost of fuel is relatively
cheap in the US anyway, and if you had a small Toyota it wasn’t exactly breaking the bank
every time you filled up.
Besides it was SUVs, cross overs and pick up truck that’s most people wanted, not
a small sedan.
Sure the other advantage was the fact they do not smell, or create emissions, but it
didn't seem to be enough to deter people from buying ICE.
EVs were basic.
DISADVANTAGE But I think these advantages are outweighed
by the disadvantage of the much higher price tag, when compared to a regular equivalent
ICE vehicle.
Even though in the long run the EV may cost less, it doesn't appear to have a major impact
on the buying decision currently.
And you might say, well this will all change soon, when there is a $7,500 tax credit.
Well no, it wont, because all these EVs already have a $7,500 tax credit, except GM and Tesla.
BMW Even the more luxury brand BMW was quite early
to the game with their i3, but it ended up looking like the worst BMW ever made since
their bubble car.
They didn't want to make a cool EV.
They just decided to make one and test the market, that vehicle supposedly still makes
a loss today.
Of course the BMW i8 did look cool, but that was a plug in hybrid.
Oh and the price was far too high for any mass market.
I did admittedly actually really want one when it first came out, being an ex-BMW enthusiast
myself.
TESLA And then there was Tesla, and as the infamous
Tesla shorter Jim Chanos said back in the day, "Tesla made EVs Sexy", a very apt sentence
considering they did end up literally making them SEXY with their model line up line up.
The inference was that now Tesla have done that, and shown that EVs aren't just for environmentalists,
now the big boys, as he put it, will come out with vastly superior EVs to Tesla, as
they are actually experienced in making millions of cars, withe decades and decade of experience,
unlike some start up like Tesla, at the time.
So legacy went to work and came up with their versions of electric.
As a Tesla shareholder I was somewhat concerned, but I figured at least Tesla was early enough
to the market they should at least secure some decent market share, and perhaps be one
of the major auto players.
But often in new industries like this, it isn't always the first player that wins.
COMPETITION Then as time went on, they slowly started
releasing models.
The Porsche Mission E was creating a lot of excitement, as it debuted in 2015, and we
somewhat expected it in production soon enough after that.
A vehicle to go head to head with the Model S, I actually saw one of the prototypes in
the Porsche factory, I really did research this industry and company as best I could
even back then.
And hey, I can admit it, it was a nice looking car, it was really cool, but it wasn't released
until the end of 2019 as the Porsche Taycan.
I even have a friend who bought one, and another friend who's dad bought the turbo S version,
for lack of better word.
Porsche worked really hard and managed to get the acceleration to compete with the Model
S Ludicrous.
Of course they did this by sacrificing range by making the car that much more powerful.
With a 0 to 60 time of 2.4 seconds.
The range was about 225 miles, compared to the Tesla Ludicrous at 380, not too far off
double the range.
And if you thought that was bad, the price was just as bad at around $185,000, or probably
well over $200,000 when you include many of the standard options that come with a Tesla,
of course no Autopilot or FSD.
Oh and there's probably a strong chance that Porsche even lose money on those cars.
The most highly anticipated EV to compete with Tesla, and it managed to get the same
acceleration, yet with about half the range, and at twice the price.
Sure all the Tesla haters, and Porsche lovers didn't care, and they said how much better
it looked than a Tesla that was now 7 years old.
But that was all moot, it's the specs that matter.
It was an eye opener, if one of the biggest auto manufacturers in the world can only come
up with this, over many years of refining it,
[Rimac sports car video or image] oh and having to buy out a massive stake in
the electric sports car company Rimac, for their power train technology.
Well I couldn't believe it.
It wasn't necessarily that Porsche or VW were that bad, it just showed a clear indication
of just how amazing Tesla were.
UTILITY And Porsche had a small niche market for people
with too much money who still want to be seen in a Porsche, but now wanted an electric car.
And as they are so niche, there is perhaps enough of a market for them.
Just like Tesla also started in an exclusive niche with their roadster.
But as for the rest, simply making cars electric is not really enough.
Teslas were popular, because of all the insane technology you get.
It really is the difference between a smartphone and a flip phone.
Who wants to go back?
Oh and Teslas also drive that much better, even the standard ranges too.
My wife has a standard Model 3, and I was amazed how well it drove even compared to
my performance, with LFP cells too.
Tesla wasn't offering just a cool fast electric car that drives better, they offered a digital
smart, robot car, that keeps improving with every latest update.
The redesigned the car from electric up, utilizing all the best ways of improving handling, safety
and the overall driving experience.
And now all the other legacy autos are trying to offer EVs, they are working very hard to
show them off, and create the effect of how electric they are.
But rather than creating a smart car of their own, they are instead showing off with other
features, light lots of lights, people condition lighting with electricity, so lets make lots
of lights, oh and lots of screens.
But these vehicles come at a massive cost, both to manufacturer, and to the consumer,
and they still lose money, and their specs don't come close to Tesla's.
Legacy autos have still not understood the electric market or how to tackle it.
I am not even sure they are trying to make smart cars or anything like that.
I think they are just doing what they can, and hoping for the best.
Of course even if their best was actually something consumers wanted, and actually made
a profit, well they are still left with that old issue of the fact they can't make them
fast enough, as they can't achieve volume production.
Oh and then if they did ever manage that, then they are left with another issue, which
is lack of batteries.
Hence all their massive 100s of billions of dollars being invested into cell and battery
factories that will be enough cells to make a few million EVs a year.
Yes, just a few million.
Tesla alone will hit that run rate sometime next year.
FORD They are all lost in this industry.
However, I think Ford have actually been trying.
First they attempted the mach e.
Going for the cross over market, a very popular market, and they even used their best brand,
the Mustang, because they were so desperate, not that this has anything to do with any
Mustang in the past, but they had to give it everything they got.
And they even managed to offer a 300 mile range, which is not an easy task.
They even tried to cut costs by producing it in Mexico.
But these efforts were not enough.
So their next plan was to make an electric version of their best selling model.
The F-150.
Although it does risk some serious cannibalization of what is pretty much the only profitable
model Ford still make.
And they really did everything they could think of to try and get this right, so it
may have a chance against the Cybertruck.
Like Porsche, they niched.
They went for the workman's truck.
And rather than just placing more lights and screens everywhere, they thought massively
about utility.
They know their market, and end user very well.
So they designed an EV around utility for the likes of people like builders.
One major feature was their massive frunk, a lockable storage unit on a pick up truck,
a very useful feature, that other trucks cannot offer so easily, and they made it the biggest
frunk in the world.
And you have probably seen there are a plethora of other really neat features that actually
offer genuine value to a lot of people.
These features were not able to be offered on a traditional ICE truck, but electric made
these possible.
And next they will likely think of similar utility for an electric van.
But after thinking of several work type vehicles, useful to a select target market, where do
they go next?
Do they offer some sort of SUV for soccer moms?
What sort of unique useful features can they add there now it's electric?
I'm not sure.
NICHES So I think if these other EVs want to have
some demand, over a Tesla, they need to find these niches.
There are lots of advantages now we can get from electric, like amazing acceleration and
performance, a high energy capacity that could be used for alternative utility.
Tesla are going to make all the mainstream EVs.
The rest of them will have to just make some sort of lifestyle or work related niche vehicles.
Rivian and Lucid have niched.
Rivian is a lifestyle vehilce, and Lucid is oppulent.
However, they are not likely to be profitable before they run out of capital.
But they didn't make the mistake of going head to head with Tesla, and simply offering
a higher priced, lower spec'd vehicle, that makes less profit.
NOT TESLA Oh and there is the reluctant consumer who
doesn't want a Tesla because they don't like the brand or CEO, so they bought a Hyundai
instead.
Well that's kind of like cutting off your nose to spite your face.
You are paying a lot more, for a lot less, and literally have more chance of a serious
accident.
PROBLEMS Of course this runs into other issues.
If they are just catering to small markets, that have low demand, then the prices will
end up having to be high for these vehicles, as they won't hit economies of scale.
Also just as they are getting started into the EV industry, it will be over pretty quick.
Consumers will move on fast to the next industry, the autonomous vehicles industry.
And if legacy thought building an EV was difficult, well they haven't seen anything yet.
FSD is the hardest thing ever created, and will offer the biggest improvement in standard
of living that we have seen for sometime.
But these companies are never going to achieve it, not at least without $100k of equipment
per vehicle and a entire city mapped out.
Oh and they will drive slowly and be more dangerous and get lots of driving wrong.
It is immoral that these companies are even trying, BMW just had a fatality with their
FSD attempt.
Tesla has just about cracked it, and even to this date has the most superior version
of FSD by orders of magnitude.
Telsa are offering legacy and everyone else a lifeline to take them up on their FSD.
And like I said, it is totally unethical that these other companies don't take Tesla up
on that, as it will literally save lives.
SUMMARY Yes, some people do buy things like the Hyundai
Ioniq 5, I had a friend who bought the performance version of those recently, I think he was
shocked just how much faster my Tesla was than his.
Some consumers simply think they know better, but I am sure in the long run they will all
end up with buyers remorse.
Therefore there really isn't that much demand for electric.
It's Teslas that the market want.