B. MILLER, THANK YOU BOTH VERY
MUCH FOR BEING ON THE SHOW THIS
MORNING.
IT IS NOW JUST PAST THE TOP OF
THE HOUR ON THIS FRIDAY, APRIL
#th#
9th.
THE U.S. HAS NOW REACHED THE
GOAL OF FULLY VACCINATING NEARLY
20% OF ITS ENTIRE POPULATION.
THIS MEANS AROUND 66 MILLION
AMERICANS HAVE BEEN INOCULATED
WITH THE PFIZER, MODERNA OR
JOHNSON & JOHNSON VACCINE.
THESE FIGURES FROM THE CDC MAKES
THE U.S. THE FOURTH-MOST
VACCINATED COUNTRY BY POPULATION
BEHIND ISRAEL, CHILE, AND
BAHRAIN.
MANY COUNTRIES, HOWEVER DOB, DO
EVEN EXPECT TO REACH 20%
INOCULATION.
AND JOINING US NOW IS FORMER FDA
COMMISSIONER, DR. SCOTT
GOTTLIEB.
HES A MEMBER OF THE PFIZER
BOARD AND WHY DONT WE START
RIGHT THERE, DR. GOTTLIEB.
WHAT DO YOU MAKE OF THE WORLD
PROGRESS ON THE VACCINE AND HOW
MUCH DOES THAT PLAY INTO US
BEING ABLE TO PUT COVID BEHIND
US IN THE UNITED STATES OF
AMERICA?
>> THERES NO QUESTION THAT ITS
A CHALLENGE GETTING VACCINE INTO
LOW AND MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES,
IN PARTICULAR.
I THINK AS WE GET INTO THE LATER
HALF OF THIS YEAR, THERES GOING
TO BE MUCH MORE SUPPLY AVAILABLE
TO PUT INTO DIFFERENT MARKETS.
I THINK THE PROBLEM AND THE
CHALLENGES ARE STILL GOING TO BE
THE LOGISTICS.
SOME OF THESE VACCINES NEED VERY
COMPLEX CULTURING IN STORAGE AND
DELIVERING THEM, ESPECIALLY IN
LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES THAT DONT
HAVE THE HEALTH CARE
INFRASTRUCTURE CAN BE A
CHALLENGE.
COVAX IS WORKING ON THAT, THE
U.S. GOVERNMENT, THE BIDEN
ADMINISTRATION HAS GIVEN A LOT
OF MONEY TO SUPPORT THAT.
THE COMPANIES THAT DONATED A
VACCINE TO COVAX, INCLUDING A
COMPANY IM ON THE BOARD OF,
PFIZER.
SO SOME OF ITS BEING ADDRESSED.
SOMETHING ON THE ORDER OF WHAT
WE DID UNDER PEPFAR, MASSIVE
RESOURCE TO MAKING VACCINE IS
AVAILABLE.
IN TERMS OF WHAT IT MEANS FOR
US, I DONT THINK YOULL TRULY
SOLVE THE CHALLENGE OF COVID FOR
THE UNITED STATES UNTIL YOU
SOLVE THE CHALLENGE OF KOEFDCOVI
THE ENTIRE WORLD OR MOST OF THE
WORLD.
PARTICULARLY WHEN YOU TALK ABOUT
OUR NEIGHBORS LIKE MEXICO.
WE NEED TO BE DOING MUCH MORE
WITH RESPECT TO OUR CLOSE
NEIGHBORS AND NEIGHBORS LIKE
MEXICO.
AS LONG AS THEY HAVE OUTBREAKS,
WELL CONTINUE TO HAVE SPREAD
HERE IN THE UNITED STATES.
>> HEY, DOCTOR, SO WE ARE
BASEBALL FANS HERE AND I
COULDNT HELP LOOKING AT REPLAYS
LAST NIGHT FROM HOUSTON AND
SEEING PACKED CROWDS WEB.
THEN LOOKING A LOT OF OTHER
BALLPARKS AND SEEING, YOU KNOW,
MAYBE 2, 3, 4,000 PEOPLE THERE.
OBVIOUSLY, MEDICAL PROFESSIONALS
HAVE BEEN RECOMMENDING SOCIAL
DISTANCING STAY IN PLACE.
BUT THE NUMBERS ARENT MATCHING
UP NEATLY.
WERE NOT HAVING EXPLOSION OF
INFECTIONS IN COVID AND WERE
NOT SEEING FALLING NUMBERS IN
SOME OF THE NORTHEAST STATES.
HOW SHOULD AMERICANS LOOK AT
THIS?
HOW SHOULD THEY LOOK AT THE
DIFFERENT REGIONS OF THE
COUNTRIES ADDRESSING COVID
DIFFERENTLY AND WHATS THE BEST
PATH FORWARD?
>> LOOK, I THINK THERES AN
IMPROVING PICTURE OVERALL
NATIONALLY, WITH NOW 112 MILLION
PEOPLE WITH AT LEAST ONE DOSE OF
THE VACCINE, PROBABLY ABOUT 130
MILLION AMERICANS WHO HAVE HAD
THE INFECTION.
WE HAVE A LOT OF IMMUNITY IN THE
POPULATION AND THATS GOING TO
BE A PRETTY EFFECTIVE BACKSTOP
AGAINST RENEWED EPIDEMIC SPREAD.
THAT SAID, THERE ARE PARTS OF
THE COUNTRY THAT ARE VERY HOT
RIGHT NOW, PARTICULARLY WHEN YOU
LOOK AROUND THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, NEW YORK, NEW JERSEY,
WHERE THEY ARE SEEING LOCALIZED
OUTBREAKS.
A LOT OF THAT SPREAD RIGHT NOW
IS IN CHILDREN.
I THINK ITS PARTLY A AS A
RESULT OF THE FACT THAT WE HAVE
REOPENED SCHOOLS.
IM NOT SAYING THATS THE WRONG
DECISION, BUT WE NEED TO
RECOGNIZE AS WE REOPEN SCHOOLS
AND REEXPOSE SOCIAL NETWORKS
THAT HAVE BEEN LARGELY SHELTERED
FROM THE VIRUS TO THE RISK OF
SPREAD, WERE SEEING SPREAD IN
THOSE GROUPS.
THE BIGGEST TERMS OF NEW GROWTH
IN MICHIGAN IS IN CHILDREN UNDER
THE AGE OF 19, THE SAME THING IN
MASSACHUSETTS.
WE NEED TO RECOGNIZE THERE ARE
PARTS OF THE COUNTRY RIGHT NOW
THAT ARE VERY HOT AND ARE HAVING
OUTBREAKS AND ARE NOT GOING TO
BE EASILY QUELLED.
I THINK WE NEED TO TRY TO GET
VACCINE INTO THOSE MARKETS.
WE SHOULD BE DOING MORE IN
MICHIGAN TO GET MORE VACCINE
INTO METRO DETROIT, WHICH IS THE
EPICENTER OF THEIR EPIDEMIC
RIGHT NOW.
BUT AS THE SITUATION IMPROVES
OVERALL AROUND THE COUNTRY,
THERES STILL PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY THAT ARE LAGGING.
PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH AND
THE NORTHEAST.
I THINK AT LEAST PARTLY, WHATS
PROBABLY CONTRIBUTING TO THAT IS
THAT THEYRE NOT BENEFITING FROM
THE SEASONAL EFFECT.
IF YOU LOOK AT WHATS HAPPENING
IN THE SOUTH RIGHT NOW, TO YOUR
POINT ABOUT TEXAS AND EVEN IN
FLORIDA, FOR THAT MATTER, WHERE
THERES A LOT OF THE ACTIVITY
AND MOBILITY IS WAY UP, YOURE
NOT SEEING BIG OUTBREAKS.
THATS PROBABLY BECAUSE THEYVE
BEEN ABLE TO MOVE A LOT OF
ACTIVITY OUTDOORS, WHEREAS IN
THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST, THEYRE
NOT SEEING THE BENEFIT OF THAT
SEASONAL EFFECT.
BUT THERE WILL BE SOME PARTS OF
THE COUNTRY THAT ARE GOING TO
LAG AND SOME PARTS OF THE
COUNTRY THAT MIGHT NEED TO TAP
THE BRAKES A LITTLE BIT.
>> DR. GOTTLIEB, ITS WILLIE
GEIST.
ITS GOOD STOWTO SEE YOU THIS
MORNING.
WEVE HEARD FROM DR. WALENSKY
AND DR. FAUCI, THIS BALANCING
ACT.
WEVE MADE INCREDIBLE STRIDES IN
GETTING THE VACCINE DISTRIBUTED
AND GETTING IT OUT TO THE PEOPLE
WHO NEED IT, FASTER THAN HAD
BEEN SCHEDULED.
BUT ALSO, LETS NOT JUMP AHEAD.
WERE NOT OUT OF THE WOODS JUST
YET.
YOU SAID THE OTHER DAY THAT A
FOURTH WAVE IS NOT LIKELY.
SO WHAT GIVES YOU THAT
CONFIDENCE WHEN WERE HEARING A
LITTLE BIT MORE RESERVATION, A
LITTLE BIT MORE HESITATION FROM
THE PEOPLE AT THE TOP OF THOSE
ORGANIZATIONS?
>> LOOK, WHAT GIVES ME THAT
CONFIDENCE IS THAT WERE NOT
SEEING EVIDENCE THAT THERES
REINFECTIONS TAKING PLACE ON ANY
WIDESPREAD BASIS.
PEOPLE WHO ARE EITHER VACCINATED
OR WHO HAVE HAD THE INFECTION DO
APPEAR TO HAVE IMMUNITY THATS
DURABLE AND THEYRE NOT GETTING
REINFECTED, AT LEAST NOT
BECOMING SYMPTOMATIC.
AT THIS POINT, WE PROBABLY WOULD
BE DETECTING IT IF IT WAS
HAPPENING ON A WIDESPREAD BASIS.
WITH 110 MILLION PEOPLE
PARTIALLY VACCINATED, 130
MILLION PEOPLE WHO HAVE BEEN
INFECTED, AT LEAST, WHEN YOU
START TO ADD THE NUMBERS, YOU
HAVE A PERCENTAGE OF THE
POPULATION WHERE AT LEAST 60%
HAS SOME FORM OF PROTECTED
IMMUNITY.
MAYBE MORE THAN THAT.
YOURE NOT QUITE AT HERD
IMMUNITY, BUT AT LEVELS WHERE
THIS ISNT GOING TO TRANSFER AS
READILY.
I THINK THE NEXT TWO TO THREE
WEEKS WILL BE CHALLENGING AND
THAT WERE PROBABLY LIKELY TO
SEE A PLATEAUING IN CASES.
WE MIGHT SEE A CONTINUED UPTICK
IN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY THAT ARE
STILL EXPERIENCING EPIDEMICS
LIKE MICHIGAN, LIKE
MASSACHUSETTS, LIKE NEW YORK.
BUT FOR THE REST OF THE COUNTRY,
I THINK ITS GOING TO BE A
CONTINUED OVERALL IMPROVING
PICTURES AND HARD TO REIMPOSE
RESTRICTIONS ON THE POPULATION.
RIGHT NOW, PEOPLE WHO ARE
WORRIED ABOUT COVID WANT TO GO
OUT, BECAUSE THEYVE BEEN
VACCINATED.
AND PEOPLE WHO ARENT VACCINATED
WANT TO GO OUT BECAUSE THEY WERE
NEVER WORRIED ABOUT COVID.
AS YOU GET INTO THE END OF
APRIL, MAY, WHEN THE VACCINE IS
WIDELY AVAILABLE, EVERYONE WHO
WANTS TO BE VACCINATED AND WHO
WANTS TO PROTECT THEMSELVES WILL
HAVE THAT OPPORTUNITY.
YOULL HAVE A LOT OF PEOPLE WHO
FEEL THAT THEY ARE AT LOWER RISK
AND THEY ARE AT LOWER RISK.
RIGHT NOW, IF YOU LOOK AT THE
CASE FATALITY RATE AROUND THE
COUNTRY AND ITS HARD TO
MEASURE, BECAUSE DEATHS ARE
ALWAYS A LAGGING INDICATOR.
THE DEATHS YOURE SEEING TODAY
WERE THE RESULT OF INFECTIONS
THAT HAPPENED MORE THAN A MONTH
AGO.
EVEN IF YOU LOOK AT THE CRUDE
CASE FATALITY RATE, ABOUT 0.4%,
IF YOU ASSUME THAT WERE
DIAGNOSING ONE IN THREE
INFECTIONS.
IF YOU ASSUME WERE DIAGNOSES
ONE IN FOUR INFECTIONS, WHICH
MAY BE THE CASE, THE INFECTION
MORTALITY RATE IS PROBABLY
AROUND 0.#2%.
THAT MEANS THE OVERALL
VULNERABILITY OF THE POPULATION
HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY REDUCED
BY A FACT THAT MEDICAL CARE HAS