AMNA NAWAZ: We now turn to the political analysis of Shields and Brooks. That's syndicated columnist
Mark Shields and New York Times columnist David Brooks.
Welcome back to you both.
And, Mark, a very special welcome back to you. We're glad to see you again.
I want to start with you.
We heard Dr. Anthony Fauci tell Judy just a little while ago he believes he has the
full backing of the White House, from the president on down.
When you look back at the week and the criticism some White House officials were lobbing at
Dr. Fauci, what were you thinking?
MARK SHIELDS: I was thinking, he's a remarkable -- he's a public treasure, somebody who is
so large, that he doesn't personalize criticism, sniping from the White House that, obviously,
is both jealous and upset with his candid assessment.
I mean, I -- he has an exceptional ability to explain the mysteries of disease and medicine
to Americans, ordinary Americans, including this one, and do so in an unvarnished and
just brave way.
AMNA NAWAZ: David, I got to ask you.
The president's criticism, and other White House officials' criticism of Dr. Fauci, the
lack of response to the pandemic that's led to some criticism of President Trump himself
from within his own party I wanted to ask you about.
We have now heard an outright defense of Fauci and criticism of the president from Senator
Mitt Romney, from Congresswoman Liz Cheney. There was that scathing op-ed from Maryland
Governor Larry Hogan.
What does all of that, open critique from senior Republican officials, say to you now?
DAVID BROOKS: Well, there are a couple of gigantic curves that explain what's going
on right now.
The one is the curve of the daily infection, and that's just like zoom. That's up to 77,000
new cases a day now.
The other curve is of Trump approval, and that's zoomed down. And then the third curve
is Republican Party I.D. If you look at the Gallup numbers, in January of this year, if
you asked people, what party do you sort of lean toward, it was 49 percent Republican
and 30 -- and 47 percent Democrat. So the Republicans had a 2 percentage point lead.
Now it's 50 point Democrat, 39 Republican. The Democrats have an about 11-point party
I.D. lead. That is just a monumental shift in six months. That doesn't happen very often.
And Republicans are seeing that, and they're rightly panicking. They are rationally panicking,
which is what they should be doing, and, therefore, the criticism.
AMNA NAWAZ: Mark, speaking of shifts over time, I want to point you to some recent poll
numbers we saw from The Washington Post and ABC News, showing that, regardless of what's
happening in the party, President Trump is losing some support among core parts of his
coalition from back in 2016.
Among white evangelicals, support has dropped 16 points, now at 68 percent. Among white
men without college degrees, it's dropped 15 points down to 56 percent. Among rural
residents, it's down to 48 percent. That's an 11-point drop.
Do you look at those numbers and see those as signs of trouble for the president?
MARK SHIELDS: Oh, sure. They are signs of trouble, Amna, make no mistake about it.
And the reality is this, that Donald Trump has had a very loyal, very consistent cadre
of support, rather remarkable.
As one of the most prominent and respected Republicans in the country said to me today,
voters are just -- and a Trump supporter -- he said, voters are just tired. They're exhausted.
They are tired of the chaos. They're tired of the melodrama. They are looking for calm,
and they're looking for emotional maturity.
And, as of today, Joe Biden is the one of the two who fills that bill.
AMNA NAWAZ: David, what do you make of that? Speaking of Biden, what does all this mean
for him? It seems the campaign is very much steady as she goes, even as we have seen chaos
in the Trump campaign, including a campaign shakeup, right, at the very top.
There was the ousting of the campaign manager, Brad Parscale, for the elevation of Bill Stepien,
who is now running that campaign. What does this mean for Biden?
DAVID BROOKS: Well, Biden is running an underappreciated campaign, I think a very good campaign.
They are keeping him somewhat under wraps, but he's making enough statements to be in
the news. And then he's focused his campaign and -- at least a part of his campaign on
the white working class. This is a class he emerges from. It's 44 percent of the electorate.
It's whites without a college degree.
And this is a very important part of the Republican base. This is the Republican base. Trump beat
Clinton among this group by 28 percent. But Biden is able to speak to this group. He doesn't,
frankly, offend this group by being, frankly, a coastal elitist.
And in the two financial packages he announced this week, he sends money directly at the
white working class.
I had a chance, with a few other columnists, interview him this week, and he talked about
manufacturing over and over and again, getting another -- our industrial economy going and
going again. And the people who would be hired would be African-Americans and members of
this group.
And so he's directly talking straight at them. And if he can take the white working class
away from the Republicans, then he's recreated the New Deal coalition, and realigned our
politics.
AMNA NAWAZ: Mark, what do you make of the way that Biden's been messaging and laying
out these new policy proposals? We know that there persists that enthusiasm gap, when you
look at the numbers, right? More people are saying that they're enthusiastic about supporting
Mr. Trump than say they're enthusiastic about supporting Biden.
Is what he's doing enough and sustainable through November?
MARK SHIELDS: Well, I think -- first of all, I stand corrected on Joe Biden.
He finished a weak fifth in Iowa -- a fourth in Iowa, a weak fifth in New Hampshire. He
was given up for dead by many of us, and I think probably yours truly included, and went
on to win in South Carolina and sweep to the nomination, without ever compromising and
capitulating on the shiny objects of Medicare for all or whatever else. He had the resistance
of standing against that.
I think, as we look at it right now, that Donald Trump, voters have really made up their
mind about him. The five polls, national polls this month, Donald Trump is 37, 39, 40, 41,
and 40. They have made up their mind they don't want Donald Trump for another -- another
term.
And I think Joe Biden is very much in the position that Ronald Reagan was in 1980. The
voters had decided -- it was a very close race between Jimmy Carter and Ronald Reagan.
Voters had really decided they didn't want Carter to come back for a second term, but
they had doubts and reservations.
In that one debate, Ronald Reagan put those doubts to rest by showing that he was nonthreatening,
didn't want to start World War III, and was a reasonable person.
And, quite bluntly, that's what Joe Biden has to do. He can win by not being Donald
Trump. But he could win a real victory by being decisive and effective in the debate.
And those debates are going to be the only time that there's going to be really a major
event involving the two candidates all year.
We're not going to have the rallies and the bandwagons and the bands and the balloons.
This is going to be it.
And I would -- Peter Hart said, Joe Biden ought to just spent three hours every day
just preparing and repairing and comparing and getting his story down, because that will
be the test.
AMNA NAWAZ: David, do you agree with that? I mean, the next few months are not going
to look like any other last few months leading up to a general election.
Do you think those numbers for President Trump will hold, given that we have no idea what
will happen with the pandemic next?
DAVID BROOKS: I don't see how they turn around.
There must be a way. They may tighten. I don't know the future. But I just don't see an occasion
-- I agree with Mark. I think the American public has made up their mind. But who knows?
You would not want to bet much money on a Trump reelection right now.
And, as for Biden, like, even in our conversation this week -- I have interviewed Biden many,
many times over the last 20 years. And the Biden I heard talk this week was the same
guy that I have been interviewing this whole time. The idea that he's lost a step, if so,
it was not evident in our conversation.
I do think -- I'm admiring of the way he's running the campaign. I think that economic
populism message, left-wing version of it, is the right way to go.
And, as Mark says, he has not done the things that would offend the middle of the electorate.
Even this week, he said: I'm not for defunding the police. I'm for increasing funding for
the police.
And that is by far a majority position in this country. It's by far a majority position
in the Democratic Party.
And so they're running a canny campaign. I would prepare for the debates, as Mark says,
because I hadn't thought about it until this moment, that that is really the only possible
turning point that we're going to probably see.
AMNA NAWAZ: So, before we know what happens in November -- it feels like a long time away
-- Mark, I have to ask you about some election results we do already have and can talk about.
We saw Jeff Sessions lose in Alabama this week. In Maine, Sara Gideon is now going to
be the candidate running against Republican Susan Collins. That is a race that you have
been following. What do you think will happen there? And what do you think that means?
MARK SHIELDS: Well, I mean, Susan Collins is not to be written off.
I mean, she's 24 years in the United States Senate. She survived, wins in all sorts of
problems in that state. But I think, this year, she's in trouble. And she's tied with
Donald Trump, even though she has established her independent record over the years. She's
very much tied, I think, in voters' minds.
And she will run better than Donald Trump in Maine. I think, if Donald Trump loses Maine
decisively, Susan Collins is in trouble.
As far as Jeff Sessions is concerned, he was Donald Trump, really, without the meanness
before Trump on immigration, on trade. And because he took that one stand on recusing
himself, he became Donald Trump's lifelong enemy, even though he had been the first senator
to endorse him.
And Trump exacted his pound of flesh. He ended his career in Alabama. And it shows Trump's
clout with Republican primary voters in Alabama, make no mistake about it.
AMNA NAWAZ: David, what about you? When you look at the results we have this week, what
messages do they hold for what we could see down the line?
DAVID BROOKS: Well, the Sessions race proves why Democrats -- why Republicans are walking
into their doom and they're not defecting from Trump. They have no good options. If
they defect from Trump, they lose their people. If they don't, they lose the rest of the country.
In Susan Collins' case, I think she would like 69 percent of the vote six years ago.
But the times have changed. And her approvals are way down in the upper 30s in one poll
I saw.
People want to take -- they want change. And we saw that in the Engel race. We see it.
People are disgusted with the way the country is being run right now. And if you're a moderate
Republican, like a moderate Democrat, it's just not a great place to be right now.
I say that with some evident sadness.
AMNA NAWAZ: Mark, before we go, I have to ask you about another story we have been tracking
about absentee ballots.
We have obviously seen them play a much bigger role in the primary elections this year and
mid-pandemic, and will probably continue to be through the general election.
Reports about tens of thousands of absentee ballots or mail ballots being rejected so
far. How big an issue do you think this is going to be? And what kind of impact do you
think it could have moving forward?
MARK SHIELDS: Well, it's a major issue.
I mean, just think about New York, the Empire State. They voted on June 23. We just got
the results today. And you're right. There is -- people are unfamiliar with voting by
mail.
We have a national pandemic. We have to have -- we have an obligation, as a nation, to
make it possible and easy for people to vote, and that their vote is counted.
And I really think every state, every officeholder has that responsibility, certainly every governor.
And I think it's obvious that the Trump campaign is not interested in a huge turnout. But I
really don't think they will be able to stop it this year.
The enthusiasm is higher right now than it has been in October of past presidential years,
in the interest. And I think we're going to have an enormous turnout.
AMNA NAWAZ: A lot we do not yet know, and a lot of questions, especially amid this pandemic.
David Brooks and Mark Shields, always good to talk to you, especially at the end of this
particular week. Thanks so much to both of you. Please stay safe.
MARK SHIELDS: Thanks, Amna.