Look, a correction is going to come at some stage,
but at the moment,
you know, we joke about these big numbers, $200,000, $300,000, $400,000 Bitcoin,
but that's very much within reach
as a global asset class with everyone just putting, you know, 1%, 5% to 10% of their portfolio
into Bitcoin and into Ethereum now as well.
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Welcome to BitBoy Crypto! The largest crypto channel in all the Interwebs.
My name is Ben.
Everyday on this channel, I show you how to make money in cryptocurrency.
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You can also win a full Bitcoin. Details down below in the video description.
Today, I sat down with one of the smartest dudes in the entire space,
Alex from Nugget's News.
That's right, he's from Down Under,
but his portfolio is certainly going up, I'm sure.
He gives us his idea about what will be happening at the end of this year about Bitcoin.
And I can tell you you're definitely not going to want to miss it.
We are just getting started.
You've got to see the price points that he's predicting Bitcoin goes to in this bull run.
Pretty exciting stuff.
So here we go. Let's check it out.
Hey, everybody! I'm joined with Alex from Nugget's News, a friend of mine.
You guys don't forget to check out his channel. You guys can get that link down below in the description.
But Alex is coming to us from Down Under.
How are you doing, Alex?
I'm very good. Thanks, BitBoy. Thanks for having me on.
Yeah, absolutely.
So, if you could, just give us a little background on yourself
and then tell us a little bit about what you do in the crypto space.
Yeah, sure thing.
So I fell down the Bitcoin rabbit hole back in 2012.
Before that, I was a little bit of a gold and silver bug.
And I lost a lot of money in the GFC, in the financial crisis back in 2008.
And that's why I wanted to learn about shares and how come we've lost half our money in this crash
- that no one can see coming, apparently. - Yeah.
Yeah, so I read this article on Zero Hedge about Bitcoin.
And just digital money made sense.
You know, everything else was digital.
And I've traveled a lot, and I've seen how bad money was
and, you know, the spreads and all that sort of thing,
so this idea of digital instant money just-- I kind of knew it was going to take off.
It was just a matter of time.
And then I think, over the years, Bitcoin has become more important
in terms of the hard currency rather than--
- It started off as more of a payment system. - Right.
And so, yeah, I just think that it's evolved.
And then Ethereum came along in 2015.
And I kind of ignored it a fair bit at first.
- I missed out on the ICO because everyone-- - Bad mistake.
- Everyone was calling it a shitcoin. - Right.
- All the maximalists. - Those maxis.
And I finally took the time to do my own research and thought,
"Wow, this is so much bigger than just Bitcoin and money.
This is a whole new system for absolutely everything!"
So, yeah, I went down that rabbit hole.
And then I quit my job as a pharmacist in 2017 when that that run sort of took place
and started a business and followed my passion and, yeah,
grew the whole business around researching different coins
and having a community and, yeah, now, we've got, same as you, about 20 staff,
lots of free content and education
and premium research and education as well.
Yeah, that's really incredible.
And you said you were a pharmacist.
- Yes. - So,
so you are an extremely unique person.
You are into drugs and crypto.
Yeah, everyone says, "Oh, you're into drugs on the dark web with Bitcoin."
Yeah, right. Damn right.
So, yeah, so you've got a lot of research,
and, you know, your website and your channel is just full of great stuff.
You're partnered with a lot of the, you know, analytic firms that we work with and talk to
to get a lot of the research on our channel.
And this is what I want to ask you.
With all of your research that you've done,
with all of the collective analytics you have,
what are you seeing right now for crypto?
What are some of the big trends that people definitely need to be paying attention to?
Yeah, so I guess--
- our approach is combining fundamental analysis with technical analysis, - Love it.
as well as the sentiment and psychology.
And these days, you can get such good information, like you said, from Glassnode and Santiment,
The TIE, CryptoQuant.
It's just awesome what we have out there available to us.
So basically, what we're seeing is a very unique cycle compared to previous cycles.
Institutional money has just kept pushing us higher and buying every dip.
You know, you look at the chart,
and we tend to come back to the 21-week moving average, for example.
And we just haven't even touched that in this entire run.
And that just shows you that there's that I think repricing,
and this asset class has stamped itself as the real deal.
And that's very, very different to, you know, a run and a pop that has been retail-driven in the past,
that smart money was early,
and when they take a position, they're not really scrambling into buy,
paying too much,
and then it pops like we saw with all these previous cycles.
This is smart money taking a position for the super long term.
And so, even though we've had this big run-up,
we're just not seeing on-chain a lot of coins being sent to exchanges to be sold.
Right.
Miners took a lot of profits to pay for their hardware
and get ready for the next cycle.
And that's fine. That's all healthy.
We're seeing a little bit of profit taking, but we're not seeing a lot of selling.
A lot of those altcoins just haven't moved and even with Ethereum as well.
A lot of the coins have either been staked or they're in DeFi.
It's just coins on exchanges are at record low.
So it's all really healthy.
I think we're probably heading somewhere towards like $70,000, $100,000,
and maybe then we have a bit of a pullback
because there's always going to be people that take profits.
Yeah, of course.
And in the macro backdrop, if things get a bit messy with interest rates in the stock market,
that smart money will also have to take profits.
They have to reposition and reallocate their funds and their balances.
So, look, a correction is going to come at some stage,
but at the moment,
you know, we joke about these big numbers, $200,000, $300,000, $400,000 Bitcoin,
but that's very much within reach
as a global asset class with everyone just putting, you know, 1%, 5% to 10% of their portfolio
into Bitcoin and into Ethereum now as well.
Yeah, I think that that's definitely something that we're seeing.
We're seeing profit-taking.
We've definitely seen, you know, we've talked a lot on my channel about the miners taking profits.
We've been a little hard on the miners
because it's a very irregular pattern from some of the mining pools taking that profit.
What are your thoughts on that?
Like, when you look at the F2Pool for instance that we've been very hard on?
You know, when you see a lot of those peaks?
They've sold massive amounts,
very inconsistent with what they've done, you know, throughout the previous months,
and then we see gigantic corrections based solely upon their selling.
What are your thoughts on F2Pool and the mining outflows?
Yeah, so, for a very long time, miners were below their production costs,
so they were losing money,
and that's why they were very reluctant to sell.
And then they sort of hopped from being losing money to being profitable
to extremely profitable when we were up at, you know, $40,000, $50,000
- where we saw a lot of that selling. - Right.
So I guess if you looked over time,
it would probably be them just getting back to their average
- or getting back to what they needed - Yeah.
to pay off all their bills.
And what they want to do is pay off all the hardware they have
and get ready for the next lot of hardware for the next market cycle.
And once they kind of have everything squared off,
then they'll stop that selling.
- And we've already seen it slowed down a little bit. - Yeah, we have.
So, yeah, I definitely think it's all just part of the normal cycle.
And once you have that behind us,
then you know that there's just less selling that's coming in the future.
So it's kind of a necessary part of the cycle,
but, yeah, they were losing money for a long time, and then all of a sudden, they've got a heap of profit,
so you can't really blame them for paying their bills.
Yeah, definitely I can.
It's when you've got one mining pool that's doing it,
and the rest of them aren't.
And then when you actually sit--
my big problem with it is
if you actually sit there and you think if they were just as to sell a consistent amount over time,
they would actually make more profit because they would prevent the price from dumping
because we've had several major gigantic corrections that pretty much solely you can track to their selling.
So in my opinion, like it only makes sense that they're leveraging it on the way down
and trying to kind of make profits back instead of just selling
because it would make more sense from a business perspective
to do it consistent to keep the market from tanking.
The other thing I think about though is,
is when we look at a lot of the top indicators,
like when we look at the NUPL or the Stock-to-Flow Deflection,
or the Puell Multiple,
when you look at a lot of these top indicators,
you know, it seems like every time we start getting to a danger zone,
we have these massive dumps,
and that's what kind of keeps the market healthy,
so, you know, from an analytic standpoint, what are you seeing in terms of market tops
compared to, you know--
Every other day, you know, people are saying, "No, the bull market's over."
I don't think any of us actually in the space think that,
but what are you seeing in terms of some of those top indicators?
Yeah, I definitely feel like the whales and the miners like to push the market in the right direction
to keep things healthy.
And if we hadn't have had this pause that we're currently in,
and we had gone straight to $70K, $80K, $100K,
then that is like a super parabolic chart.
And that's not healthy because everyone wants to make money,
but people forget the higher it goes up, the higher it's going to fall as well,
- so we need stair steps. - Yeah.
Yeah, we're getting towards the danger zone or overextended on a lot of these metrics.
Maybe it's slightly different this time just because of the maturing of the asset class.
But, again, I think whales would take profits.
And a lot of people have made 10X, 20X in a year or so,
so we're going to see profit-taking.
And once the market turns and people become fearful that everybody's selling becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy
- because-- / - Right.
- We saw the other day, there was that mislabeled transaction, - Yup.
and the alert went out, and everyone started to sell.
- That's probably a--- - Was it on accident, you think?
I know the guys at CryptoQuant,
- and I think they definitely mean well. - Yeah.
I don't think they want to cause a market panic,
but I worry about how thin markets are and order books are sometimes
because we literally know that there's not many coins on exchanges,
and not many people are sending them there.
And so everyone subscribes to these channels or these services and we're looking at this data.
So what happens the day when there is a big spike,
and all the YouTubers tell everyone that there's coins going in,
and people see that and they get the alerts?
And everyone-- it's like musical chairs.
And I think at the moment, some people or everyone is just kind of thinking that,
"Oh, I'm going to sell the top when I get that alert on my phone."
But if everyone tries to do that at once,
and when we're at $100K, we could be at $50K within a day.
- Do you know what I mean? - Yeah.
And that's I guess what worries me a little bit
that these markets are still very thin and controlled by 100X leverage.
Yeah, it is.
It is very interesting when you think about the market caps and how--
That's probably one of the biggest misnomers about cryptocurrency and these market caps
is there's not a one-to-one value of actual dollars and the Bitcoin market cap.
Like there's not literally, you know, a trillion dollars in there.
A lot of it's on leverage.
And that's why it only takes, like Bank of America said, $93 million
to move the price of Bitcoin 1%.
So--
- But, yeah-- - That's such an important point.
Like, you're talking about realized market cap and even more of altcoins as you're saying.
Yeah, absolutely.
Well, what are your thoughts in terms of a bear market?
Do you believe we're going to see a standard bear market?
Where Bitcoin goes down 85%?
Do you think that we're going to see kind of a more dialed back bear market?
Like, that's kind of what I think is going to happen, maybe 65% due to a lot of the institutional money.
Or do you believe in a Bitcoin supercycle
where the price is going to go up for the rest of our lives
and there will never be another red candle?
It depends where we go.
So let's-- if we went to $400,000 and got a big wick,
and then we pulled back to $100K,
- you know, that's a 75% correction back to $100K. - Yeah.
So, look, maybe,
but I definitely think and I've always said that we are growing to a multi-trillion dollar market cap
to compete with gold and forex blah blah blah, like we all hope.
And as we grow, the volatility is going to get less and less,
and we're going to turn into a currency just like the euro or the US dollar, the Aussie dollar.
You know, we might have 10% or 20% volatility year to year.
And so I think this cycle will not be 85%.
- It might be 70%, 60%, 50%, maybe. - Yeah.
Because as long as we're getting global adoption and penetration,
there's always buyers and more and more fiat currencies always being printed.
And as long as more and more of that is always entering Bitcoin,
then that's all going to slow the growth and stem the bleeding.
And you've got to remember that this is the first time that Bitcoin has bounced back
- after the public boom and bust. - Yeah.
- So this is the cycle where people realize it's here to stay. - Yeah.
So when it busts again, everyone is going to be saying,
"Hey, we buy that dip and then we get rich."
And so everyone's going to be thinking that rather than, "Oh, is Bitcoin dead?"
So I don't think we get a deep, nasty correction this time.
I don't know if I believe that.
I don't know if I believe that this one will be different, where people say, "Oh no, we'll buy the dip now."
Like I think the smart money will do that, obviously,
but I'm just thinking about the mainstream retail mania that's coming
because we haven't even seen that yet.
- You know, once we see that-- - Oh, yeah.
They won't. They won't be.
- They'll be the same as always. - Yeah.
They'll buy the top and then they'll sell when there's blood in the streets.
You're just selling it to Tesla and SpaceX.
Yes. Or Chinese companies.
- It's a global phenomenon. - Yeah. The Meitu, right?
- That's the name of the company? - Yeah.
Meitu. That's little on closer to your side of the world.
So, yeah, so, okay.
So what are your thoughts, let me-- last question here.
Let's talk about Bitcoin.
You know, you've thrown out some, you know, kind of crazy numbers where it could go.
What do you-- like from your perspective and everything you're seeing,
kind of map out the rest of this bull market in just some brief phases like
where do you think we're going to go before we get a giant correction?
Like what kind of percentage correction?
And then ultimately, what price point do you see Bitcoin at by the end of this bull market?
Yeah, I think, like I said, throw that figure about $70,000 or $100,000
and then, you know, a sideways chop for months on end would be really healthy
to allow alts, you know, gaming, NFTs, DeFi, all that sort of sector to blossom,
and then Bitcoin has another run into the end of the cycle.
We get up to these very large numbers.
And then we have that correction into the next halving.
So that would be the ideal, I guess, roadmap.
Yeah. So what do you think?
What is the absolute top you can see Bitcoin go into in this market?
In this cycle, yeah, I do believe that $200K, $300K, $400,000 is possible
in the next sort of-- that'd be about two years away,
maybe three years away.
In the next 10 years, I can see Bitcoin going to a million dollars a coin,
but that won't be an easy ride.
That would be very volatile.
And you will get shaken off.
- So don't think it's going to be easy. - Yeah.
Well, when you say you will get shaken off, you're not talking about me.
I will not be shooketh.
- No, definitely. Just in general. - I'm gonna hold on!
No matter what. No matter what.
People say, "Oh, you know, you've had Bitcoin since 2012, '13.
You know, you watched that go down 85% three or four times, little cycles within that,
the FUD, the hard forks," like people go,
"You're lucky you got in early," - It's all they're saying.
- but no, it was super hard every time that went down. - Yeah.
Well, it's all the same. So every time-- like I've also been in the market since 2012.
I sold very early, so really kind of like 2014, 2015, I wasn't like really in the market.
I owned a little bit here and there.
Basically, after Mt. Gox crashed, I thought crypto was over.
So like I really took my eyes off and, you know, things like that,
but what I'll say is by the time you've been in this this long and you've seen this many market cycles,
and you've seen the FUD-- and really the thing that really brings it all around for me is when
it's always the same story around the same events.
It's always like right before the halving is the stories that are,
"Well, this halving is different because everybody knows."
They're saying the same stuff in 2015,
- you know, that they were saying in 2019. - Yeah.
- And we saw what happened-- - There's a--
- There's China bans crypto. - Yeah.
There's mining death spiral.
There's Tether.
Then there's, you know, regulation and they're going to outlaw it.
Then, you know, the privacy, criminal stuff.
- It's the same every time. - It's always the same.
And so when you've heard it once, you've heard it a million times,
and the more you hear it and the more you really start to see what's going on,
you understand, you know, you just hold.
You know, you got your trading crypto, you got your profit taken,
but in general, you just don't worry about it.
We all know where this is going.
So, multi-trillion dollar market cap, I love it.
Well, Alex, thank you so much for joining the show today.
Everybody, make sure to go check out his channel down below in the description.
Also, check out his website collectiveshift.com, is that correct?
- Yeah, collectiveshift.com.au in Australia. - "dot au". That's right. "dot au".
That's got all the free stuff.
And then there's the premium stuff as well if everyone's interested.
Awesome, so it's good research.
He's partnered with a lot of good firms out there, so you guys make sure to subscribe to his channel.
Alex, anything you want to leave us with today?
No, I guess we didn't really get to touch on--
We might get into that next on my channel,
where we're going to finish off the second half of this interview, actually.
So, we'll get into some more juicy stuff over on my channel.
Yeah, absolutely. So make sure to subscribe so you can watch our video together there.
Well, guys, make sure to drop your comments down below.
Let me know who else in the crypto space you want to see us collaborate with.
We'd love to get some comments and some ideas and suggestions on that.
For now, that's all I got.
Be blessed.
BitBoy out.