My minimum price target for Bitcoin one to two years post halving is $150K.
- That is the worst case scenario minimum. - Worst case scenario?
Now, leading up to it might be a different story.
I want to share an article from Finbold.
So the Bitcoin rainbow chart,
have you seen this rainbow chart?
- It's going to pop up. Okay. - I have. Yeah, yeah.
- So-- - I haven't pulled it up lately.
the rainbow chart has set the Bitcoin price for the end of this year, okay? Now,
after breaking the psychological level at $30,000,
the price of Bitcoin has been moving in a sideways trend.
Well, not today. It's moving down.
But as things stand,
the rainbow chart suggests that Bitcoin is currently in the 'accumulate' phase,
which is indicated by the dark green color.
And I'll scroll down there in a second so you guys can take a look.
This phase presently stands in the Bitcoin price area
between around $27.9K and $36.7K.
In its most bullish scenario, which is highlighted in dark red,
for the end of this year, the rainbow chart identifies the area between $180,000
and almost a quarter million dollars
as the 'Maximum Bubble Territory' for Bitcoin,
as opposed to the most bearish scenario, which is in dark blue,
between $20K and $26.4K.
So you keep saying, you keep saying like blue, green, yellow,
I just look at it as the flavors of the Skittles.
So right now we are in lime.
- And, you know, the-- - That or you're color blind.
the yellow is--
so that yellow band there,
if we were to get into the yellow band at the halving, we're almost at $100K.
- You see that? - Yup.
- And-- - Okay. First of all, do you believe in this?
The rainbow chart,
- you have the stock-to-flow model, - Yeah.
- that kind of-- - I wouldn't--
I wouldn't take that as the gospel there like it's all or nothing.
But I do think it is something to keep a look at.
You know it. You know it's going to--
it's going to follow the rainbow chart to some degree, right?
- And-- - I mean, is it?
Yeah, I mean, the halving coming up, you're going to at least be in the yellow band, right?
And so the next halving,
$100K I think is a foregone conclusion,
- at least in our minds, right? - No, no.
So we actually did a halving video last week.
And my minimum price target for Bitcoin one to two years post halving is $150K.
- That is the worst case scenario minimum. - Worst case scenario?
Now, leading up to it might be a different story.
Look, you've got to understand, right?
Hedge funds, these money market funds, people that their sole goal is to make money,
and if the stock market is bleeding,
and you get 4%, 3%, 4%, 5% on US Treasuries,
and the dollar is being threatened right now, right?
De-dollarization is happening, right?
We can't just turn a blind eye to that.
That is happening, right?
Where else are you going to put your money?
You're going to put it in gold that goes up 2% a year?
You're going to put it in silver, other precious metals?
Or are you going to put it in something like Bitcoin?
Like Ethereum?
Who no matter what happens still has utility.
Still has utility on top of retail,
on top of halving, events like having,
on top of it being deflationary,
on top of it being on the blockchain.
And so that's what I think.
That narrative shift is going to come.
So while everyone thinks that a recession is bad for crypto and Bitcoin,
I personally think the opposite.
I think when your back is against the wall,
and you're looking for an outlet,
and you can't find an outlet,
you start looking at other ways that you haven't looked at before.
And one of those ways is going to be Bitcoin, I think.
You know what's funny?
Like, in all honesty,
when Bitcoin was at $70,000, all you hear are people,
- "Man, I wish I bough it at 20." - Did it? Was it $70,000?
- Six-- okay. - 69.
"I wish it was at $20K, man."
"If it was at $30,000, I'd buy it right now."
And Bitcoin got to $16.5K, and what did we hear from people?
"Bitcoin is going to zero."
"I knew. That's why I didn't invest."
- People always-- - BS.
people always talk about, "Hey, I'm going to pull the trigger at this price point."
- They just didn't ever do, right? - I know.
It's so common.
But now if you had the conviction,
and you see that everything's on sale,
while everyone else is panicking,
as people are puking and CNBC all of a sudden wants to cover crypto
and trash it or whatever it is,
when mainstream media is talking about it,
when you go to the barbecue and your friends are like,
"Heh! How about that FTX?"
well, if you got the conviction to buy then, you are the smart money.
- And we're not-- yeah. - Because nothing's changed.
- Nothing's changed. Bitcoin-- - Bitcoin has not changed.
The Bitcoin blocks are still getting validated every minute.
And Ethereum is still chugging along.
- Finally got its upgrade. - There you go.
They said that Bitcoin is a very, very poor alternative to gold.
I like to think the roles are actually reversed.
- I think that gold is a very, very poor-- - Well, okay.
- a very, very poor version of Bitcoin. - Bitcoin.
Because it is not--
it lacks utility.
The benefit of Bitcoin versus gold is that Bitcoin is digital.
You just pick it up anywhere as long as you got an internet connection.
Here in the States,
hey, if I want to buy gold,
I can go get an ETF of gold.
- I can go to a pawnshop and buy gold. - That's not real gold.
- ETF is not real gold. - But here's the thing.
- It is a digital representation of gold. - That's manipulated highly.
But it doesn't--
either way, you're still getting exposure to gold.
- You're still-- - You're going to--
okay, you're going to go take your ETF and go buy something?
You can still get an ETF.
They do buy and sell gold in relation to how many people are buying and selling gold.
Now, you can trade those digitally,
but that is only services that are allotted to US residents or to privileged traders abroad
that can trade in the stock exchange.
So if you don't have access to those services,
you can't get a digital representation of gold.
So outside of the EU, handful of other countries, the States,
there's a small percentage of people that can get digital gold.
Outside of that, if you want exposure to gold,
you have to go out and physically buy it.
- And then if you-- - And then hope that gold is real.
- Yeah. - And hope it's pure.
- And hope it's like, you know. - Yeah.
You can get counterfeit gold, fake gold.
I think you made an interesting statement.
You said Bitcoin is not a poor version of gold, gold is a poor version of Bitcoin.
It is. And it doesn't lose its value by any means.
Gold will always be gold.
It'll always, you know, have its value.
And as fiat currencies inflate and lose its value,
gold will increase in value.
It's just it's a scarce commodity.
Yeah, but here's the thing.
Like, that-- okay, if you're going to insure my money up to a quarter million dollars,
and you want to take it and you want to re-hypothecate and invest,
sure, okay.
That's how the economy keeps going, right? Without printing money.
- That's all a scam. But-- - But at least let me get a bigger piece of the pie, man!
Don't give-- don't take $10K from me, lend that $10K out to Robin via credit card,
charge him 20% interest and give me less than a quarter of a percent.
- Like, that's complete BS. - Well, I think times are changing.
- Right now, times are changing - And your money is debatably covered.
I've talked about this on the basement several times
whenever people will talk about FDIC.
Some other people know this. But the question for you,
how much do you think is in the FDIC reserves?
Not enough.
But what do you think it is?
I think the number was about $30 billion.
It's $128 billion.
- So, what? Half of-- - After the whole bailout with Silicon
- and-- - no, no, that's how much was there.
So they didn't even have enough to bail out Silicon alone.
- Silicon had 170 million-- - So plus-- - Well, but not-- they--
well, they didn't have enough money if they went over their $250K.
They did have enough money if they stuck to their limits, but they didn't.
They guaranteed every depositor their money back.
So they guaranteed to make everyone whole to indemnify them.
But the problem is that that bank, like, 7--
I believe it was either 78% or 90% of the deposits was over that $250,000 threshold.
And now they're talking about an unlimited FDIC?
Like, how much are these banks going to have to pay into the insurance program?
- Because that's what they do. - It comes off--
it comes off the bank.
It comes off the backs of people like me and you, right?
And we know they're not taking that out of their bottom line.
- It's going to come from ours via FIs. - They basically print-- they print it.
They print it and they debase our currency.
And then we feel it through inflation.
And the thing is, is we don't see it immediately
and then next thing you know,
two years down the road, you look at the price of gas,
it's doubled and you're like--
and it is because of actions like that.
Coinbase, for example, isn't listing XRP.
It doesn't have the order books for it.
You've got to imagine that they're not going to keep a massive amount of XRP as liquidity.
They're just going to offload that.
And so for that reason, I think when it does relist,
eventually there's going to be so much supply shock
- because you're going to have the likes of Binance.US and Coinbase and-- - Give us a price target.
XRP wins court case, starts getting relisted, what price?
- I think if you get some candles up, $2 to $3. - Last all-time high?
- $2 to $3 at most? - And then I think it probably settles in at $1.50.