A CIA director says the U.S.
is confident
China is considering
providing lethal aid to Russia in its war
in Ukraine.
William
Burns said
his agency
doesn't think a final decision
has been made yet.
But China aid could include
providing Russia
with drones and ammunition.
And as the war grinds
into its second year,
now there's no
letting up in the fighting.
Ukrainian officials
say there was extensive Russian
shelling along the front lines
in the last 24 hours,
including the area around back
more in the east.
CNN's Alex Marquardt is in the Dnipro,
Ukraine.
Alex, what can you tell us about
what's happening this weekend?
There Hi there, Fredricka.
Well, some of the fiercest
fighting with
some of the heaviest
casualties on both sides
is taking place around the city of Balkh.
Moved
our Russian forces
primarily from the Volga
mercenary group
to appear to be making gains.
They claim that they have
taken several villages
north of the city of mud in an attempt
to encircle it.
Ukrainian forces
say that they are standing their ground
in the face of intense Russian assaults.
Now, Fred,
over the course of the past few months,
this fight has evolved
from a longer range battle
with artillery, tanks
and mortars to a much closer fight.
Urban warfare in the city
with fighting street
to street, building to building.
Now, there is no talk yet of surrendering
the city
on the Ukrainian side,
but President Lewinski
has softened his
his stance on that, saying
that he will not
fight to keep it at any cost
if it means everybody is going to die.
Meanwhile, Fred,
as the second year of the war starts,
there is no indication
that President Putin
is softening his stance
that he plans on changing course
or that he plans to pull back or sit down
for any kinds of negotiations.
The CIA director, Bill Burns, talked
about President Putin's mindset
earlier today on CBS News. Take a listen.
I think Putin is
right now entirely
too confident of his ability to wear down
Ukraine to grind away.
And that's
what he's giving every evidence
that he's determined to do right now.
At some point,
he's going to have to face up
to increasing costs
as well
in coffins coming home to
some of the poorest parts of Russia.
The cumulative economic damage to Russia
as well.
Huge reputational damage.
That's not exactly been
a great advertisement.
For Russian arms sales.
So this is going to build over time.
But right now,
the honest answer,
I think Putin is quite determined
And in terms of the economic cost
on Russia,
the European Union has just announced
its 10th round of sanctions
against Russia,
which President Zelenskiy has called
very powerful. Fredricka.
Alex, the CIA director, also talked
about China and mentioned that Russia
and China
appear to be
working closer
together, as well as now Iran
being part of the picture.
What more can you report
on from your vantage point?
Both China and Iran
potentially deepening their ties
with Russia
when it comes to this fight in Ukraine.
The U.S.
now warning publicly
that China is actively considering
sending lethal aid
so weapons
to Russia in order to be used in Ukraine.
The CIA director says that no decision
has been made yet
by Chinese leadership,
that they have not seen
any shipments yet.
But the Biden administration openly
warning China
that there would be consequences
if they decide to go down that road.
The US ambassador to the United Nations
I think that that would be a red line
because it would be a significant boost
for Russia in this fight.
Meanwhile, Iran appears to be poised
to be getting
help with their missile program
from Russia, according to Bill Burns.
That is something that they have long
sought and Russia
is also apparently
considering sending fighter jets to Iran.
So that relationship
between Iran and Russia and Iran
has been sending
kamikaze drones and ammunition here
to the Russians in Ukraine.
That relationship
deepening in a fast and disturbing way.
Director Burns said.
So let's discuss
all of this with retired
Lieutenant Colonel
Alexander Vindman, a former
director of European affairs
at the White House
National Security Council.
Colonel Vindman,
great to have you back on the program.
We appreciate it.
Well, let's begin with U.S.
intelligence believing
China may provide
lethal support to Russian
troops in Ukraine.
What are your thoughts on that?
That sounds like that could lead
to a serious escalation
and some big problems for the Ukrainians.
Thanks, Jim, for having me on again.
It is a serious problem.
There's very few game changers
in this war at this point.
Russia is not going to be able
to pull a rabbit out of a hat
domestically or even with kind of second
string partnerships
with regards to Iran or North Korea.
China, on the other hand,
with its massive
industrial base is a game changer.
If the Ukrainians lose, if Russia
somehow managed, manages to snatch
the victory out of the jaws of defeat,
it's going to be on the air
at the aid of the Chinese.
And this is the danger of a long war,
a war
that's entering its second year,
a war that's started to spill over.
First,
we heard of
Iranian support,
then the North Koreans
providing ammunition.
Now, the Chinese,
the reason that these countries
are doing that
so is because they smell opportunity
and vulnerability.
They smell opportunity in that
Russia can still potentially pull
some success out of this.
This will aid the authoritarian world
and these countries
own aspirations to establish their
their own kind of imperial projects,
secure territory on their boundaries.
And it's actually a vulnerability because
erosion is deterring,
deterrence is eroding.
And the
these powers start to think that, well,
you know, what are the real costs here?
Some minor sanctions.
In exchange,
we could really undermine
the strength of the Euro
Atlantic Alliance, the United States.
So this is the danger of a long war
scenario.
And frankly, in part,
this is the result of
insufficient support from the West
to help compel
a short war and force Putin, who is yet
still determined to win in Ukraine,
but wouldn't be able to be so,
let's say,
optimistic
if his forces were consistently
being defeated on the battlefield.
Obama is an example.
And again, so far.
Yeah.
And I want to ask you a little bit
more about what Putin is up to in
just a moment.
But let me ask you this,
because on China,
the South China Sea is one of the most
contested regions in the world.
As you know, Chinese fighter jets
will sometimes confront U.S.
military aircraft.
And I think this gets to the point
you were just making a few moments ago
about spheres of influence.
I just have to ask you about this.
A CNN crew
was on board
a Navy plane
just recently
as one of these encounters unfolded
China is building up
its military presence there.
Tensions are simmering.
I mean, I remember
covering this
when I covered
the Obama and Trump administrations.
Do you think
do you see this as potentially erupting
into a military confrontation,
an actual military confrontation?
I think these
bumps in the South China Sea
are unlikely to result in broader
confrontations.
I think there's a chance
of accident, miscalculation.
The interests on both the Chinese
and the U.S.
part would be to avoid
a broader spillover.
But the relationship is overall
getting much, much sharper. The U.S.
destroying Russia's corruption, China's
surveillance balloons.
That's a signal
that we are now
moving into a kind of a more acute
phase of the war.
The Chinese, you know, really kind of
the timing is telling
that they're now considering providing
Russia aid
is in part
probably a response
to this worsening relationship.
So we're not really in danger
of a confrontation immediately.
But if this relationship
keeps spiraling for another six months
or couple of years,
we could start to
to really kind of shape
an environment
for a broader confrontation.
Instead, what we should be doing is
we should make sure that Russia
loses in Ukraine,
and that depresses the ideas of China
or any other country
pursuing a military means
to achieve their aims.
That is the biggest deterrence we have.
It's just that
this is war too long so far.
Yeah.
And that's why the Ukraine question
is so important.
And getting back to that, Putin says,
you know,
Russia can't ignore the nuclear
capabilities of the U.S.
and other NATO countries.
You know, he's
obviously engaging in more of this
nuclear bluster.
This is a question
that comes up from time to time.
Colonel Vindman,
what is your latest sense of this?
Do we need to take this
as any more than bluster?
Is there a darker message
in portraying Russia
as facing this existential threat?
It obviously uses that for domestic
political purposes.
But should it be a concern for everybody?
No.
I think there will be a time where
where this question
of nuclear saber-rattling or nuclear
consideration of a nuclear option
might become life.
It might become live,
you know, a
year down the road
when after a series of failures
on the part of the Russian ground forces
and Ukraine
liberating additional territory.
Crimea comes under a real threat.
And at that point in time,
Putin is going to have to
really start to think about what he does.
Does he withdraw or does he take the loss
or does he escalate?
Ultimately, he's
not going to risk his regime
by employing nuclear weapons
and being ostracized
by the remaining allies he has.
Really that's China.
That's the kind of the nefarious actors.
But also India
that would have to
then break contact with Russia.
But that's when it gets dangerous
way down the line.
What we should be doing,
and I wrote about this recently, is
we should be giving Ukraine
all the means they need to succeed
to liberate territory
until he's
threatened the liberation of Crimea
that forces Putin negotiate.
That's when the that is
do you think that
not to cut you off there,
but does that include the F-16s?
Absolutely.
F-16s should be part of the mix.
So should
the advanced
drones are reapers and Predator drones
that have much, much greater legs
than anything that the Ukrainians
have in their inventory,
including firepower.
Those should be going in.
We should be not talking about
30 Abrams tanks, but 300 Abrams tanks.
The metering of equipment
is playing out right now
on the geopolitical stage because, again,
the Chinese perceive vulnerabilities.
They perceive that they might be able
to provide Ukraine,
provide Russia with enough aid where
Russia is successful in Ukraine.
This is an erosion of deterrence.
What we should be doing
is providing Ukraine
all the resources they need.
So like this, deterrence becomes
remains ironclad.
And China
doesn't consider some sort of adventures.
Doesn't provoke the West.
That's going to respond
not with just with sanctions,
but frankly with other ways to
to contain Russian and Chinese advances.