Every time a geyser coughs in Yellowstone National Park, someone publishes a story with a dire headline about the end of the world.
And then the rest of the Internet freaks out in paroxysms of armageddon delight.
But what about the Long Valley Caldera, which is also considered a supervolcano by the volcanologists at the USGS?
Long Valley Caldera is a giant bowl-shaped depression in eastern California that is adjacent to Mammoth Mountain.
The valley is one of the Earth's largest calderas, measuring about 20 miles (or 32 kilometers) long, 11 miles (or 18 kilometers) wide, and up to 3,000 feet (or 910 meters) deep.
It was formed 760,000 years ago when a very large eruption released hot ash that later cooled to form the Bishop tuff that is common to the area.
The eruption emptied the magma chamber under the area to the point of collapse.
The second phase of the eruption released pyroclastic flows that burned and buried thousands of square miles.
Ash from this eruption blanketed much of the western part of what is now the United States.
Scientists began noting that the Long Valley caldera began growing around 1978 and has been doing so ever since.
This gradual growth likely represents the influx of magma into the magma chamber below the supervolcano, essentially filling the tank in preparation for the next eruption.
While the supervolcano has been studied for decades, it has been difficult to determine the amount of magma that lies beneath Long Valley.
By using a supercomputer at NASA's Ames Research Center, researchers were able to decode an image of the subsurface and map the reservoir of both solid and molten rock beneath the Long Valley supervolcano.
The team found 240 cubic miles of semi-molten magma, with 27 percent in the liquid state.
If it all blasted out of the ground, that would make Long Valley as cataclysmic as the Yellowstone supervolcano's last super-eruption 640,000 years ago that formed its current 35-by-50 mile caldera.
So, where's the screaming headlines and graphic-rich documentaries?
Yes, Yellowstone has all those famous steaming pots and geysers, but Long Valley has many hot springs, fumaroles, and even a geothermal system that fuels the Casa Diablo power plant.
And, both regions have plenty of much smaller volcanic activity, from earthquakes to minor eruptions of magma, gas, and rocks.
Perhaps Long Valley needs a better publicist.
Even Long Valley researchers estimate in their new paper that the reservoir currently contains enough melt to support another supereruption comparable in size to its last eruption.
The pattern of volcanic activity over the past 5,000 years suggests that the next eruption in the Long Valley area will most likely happen somewhere along the Mono-Inyo volcanic chain.
The Mono–Inyo Craters are a volcanic chain of craters, domes, and lava flow in Mono County, Eastern California.
However, the probability of such an eruption occurring in any given year is less than 1%.
This is comparable to the annual chance of a magnitude 8 earthquake (like the Great 1906 San Francisco Earthquake) along the San Andreas Fault in coastal California or of an eruption from one of the more active Cascade Range volcanoes in the Pacific Northwest, such as Mount Rainier.
Most likely, the next eruption will be small.
Such eruptions typically begin with a series of steam-blast explosions as a rising molten rock (magma) encounters and vaporizes underground water near the Earth's surface.
These blasts can throw large blocks of rock and smaller fragments hundreds of feet into the air, leaving deep, circular pits like the Inyo Craters.
If magma reaches the surface, gases trapped within it can escape explosively, hurling volcanic ash (tiny fragments of the solidifying magma) as high as 6 miles or more.
Airborne volcanic ash can be carried hundreds of miles downwind, and the amount and size of falling ash decreases with distance from the eruption site.
Thin accumulations of ash pose little threat to life or property, especially in areas where the roofs of most buildings are constructed to withstand heavy snow loads.
However, even a light dusting of fine volcanic ash can close roads and seriously disrupt communications and utilities for weeks or months after an eruption.
Also, do note that if a full-scale supervolcanic eruption happens, it will be life-threatening to all living organisms on earth.
But since a full-scale eruption is unlikely, you don’t have to worry about it.
Next up we will be discussing; “What Would Happen If Yellowstone Supervolcano Erupts?”
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