REALLY MOVING THAT MUCH,
20-POINT LOSS ON DOW FUTURES
RIGHT NOW, AGAIN, WHAT LET'S
BRING IN ANTHONY CHEN YOU ARE
WATCHING NUMBERS JUST YOUR
REACTION AT FIRST BLUSH.
>> FIRST BLUSH WE KNOW THAT
AFTER THE BENCHMARK REVISES
WERE CONDUCTED THE SECOND
QUARTER IS STRONGEST QUARTER
OF THE WHOLE YEAR NUMBERS ARE
QUARTER GOING TO HOLD UP
PRETTY STRONGLY A STRONG
POSITIVE CONTRIBUTION FROM
INVENTORIES, YES TRADE WILL
SUBTRACT A LITTLE BIT GAVE US
A LOT IN THE SECOND QUARTER A
GROWTH NUMBER THIS YEAR.
>> INTERESTING ASPECT OF
REPORT LOOKING AT IT CONSUMER
SPENDING WAS BELOW THE
ESTIMATES REVISED DOWN FROM 4%
TO 3.8% SO CONSUMER SPENDING
CAME DOWN THAT WAS DOWN
REVISIONS IN MOTOR VEHICLES
NONDURABLE GOODS HEALTH CARE
INTERESTING ASPECT BECAUSE
HEALTH CARE IS CONSISTENTLY
RAISING HIGHER THAN THE RATE
OF INFLATION, WE KNOW THAT IS
SOMETHING THIS GOVERNMENT
NEEDS TO ADDRESS.
DAGEN: AFTER TAX CORPORATE
PROFITS INVENTORY VALUATION
CAPITAL ASSUMPTION ADJUSTMENTS
JON HILSENRATH A MEASURE OF
PROFITS FROM PRODUCTION, THERE
WERE UP 2.4% SECOND QUARTER
BUT THE PRIOR QUARTER THEY
WERE UP IN 8.2%, UP -- FROM
THE FIRST QUARTER.
>> IF YOU LOOK AT THAT THE WAY
WALL STREET LOOKS AT PROFIT
NUMBERS IN QUARTER IS
YEAR-OVER-YEAR, IT IS 16% IT
IS 16% YEAR-ON-YEAR GROWTH, IS
A REALLY GOOD NUMBER.
>> IT IS -- IN FROM WHAT I CAN
SEE RIGHT HERE, IT IS THE BEST
NUMBER WE'VE HAD IN SIX YEARS,
DOUBLE-DIGIT PROFIT GROWTH
WALL STREET WANTS TO SEE.
READING SINCE THE FIRST
QUARTER OF 2012.
>> RIGHT SO THE QUESTION I'VE
GOT FOR YOU IS HOW IS THE
CONSUMER LOOKING, GOING INTO
THE SECOND HALF OF THE YEAR WE
GOT AUTO SALES NUMBERS OUTS
EARLIER THIS WEEK, THAT LOOKED
A LITTLE BIT ON THE SOFT SIDE,
ARE WE GOING TO SEE CONSUMER
CONTINUE TO DRIVE ECONOMY
SECOND HALF, BY THE WAY, THE
HOUSING SECTOR LOOKS SOFT OR
>> I ACTUALLY FEEL VERY GOOD G
HIGHER, CONSUMERS HAVE A LOT
OF FIREPOWER, HERE WE CAN
DEBATE SLIGHT DOWNWARD
REVISION CONSUMER SPENDING
WITH FIREPOWER OF SAVINGS
SPENDING, I WAS IMPRESSED YOU
GOT A NICE UPWARD REVISION IN
INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY
INVESTING, AND NOW, OF COURSE,
TELLS ME THAT PRODUCTIVITY
SOME POINT COULD START PICKING
UP.
>> THOSE ARE TWO REALLY BIG
ENGINES, FOR THE ECONOMY,
RIGHT NOWS CONSUMER SPENDING
WIS DRIVEN IN PART WE THINK,
SEE WHETHER THIS FOLLOWS THREW
HAS IMPACT ON TAX CUTS THERE
THE THIRD LEG OF THIS STOOL WE
ARE LOOKING AT THIS MORNING IS
CORPORATE PROFITS ARE REALLY
STRONG.
>> CONSUMER SENTIMENT
EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH SO IF WE
OF THE YEAR, BECAUSE IT, IT IF
ANTHONY ALLUDED TO
INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY
INVESTMENT ROSE 11% PACE FROM
8.2% COMPANIES ARE REINVESTING
IN BUSINESSES GOES BACK TO NEW
EXPANSIONARY COMPANIES
REVESTING IN PROPERTY PLANT
EQUIPMENT PEOPLE YOU NAME IT
DEPLOYING GALLON NO MATTER
WHAT ANYBODY SAYS THIS
BUSINESS CLIMATE AND
ENVIRONMENT IS VERY CONDUCIVE.
>> WE FOUND OUT, THIS GOES TO
THE ISSUE OF TRADE, THAT NET
EXPORTS THAT WILL ACTUALLY
WEIGH ON THE CURRENT QUARTER.
>> WE THINK WHAT HAPPENED WAS
THAT A LOT OF COMPANIES
EXPORTING SOYBEANS AHEAD OF
TARIFFS PARTICULARLY TO CHINA
WE ARE GOING TO LOSE A LITTLE
BIT IN THIRD AND FOURTH
QUARTER A BIG CONTRIBUTION.
>> YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY RIGHT
THAT IS A WASH IN THIRD
QUARTER VERSUS SECOND QUARTER
BUT THE REAL QUESTION IS WHAT
WILL TRADE DO TO OVERALL
REALLY GDP NEXT 12 MONTHS.
DAGEN: ANSWER THAT QUESTION.
>> THE ANSWER IS
STRAIGHTFORWARD IF WE HAVE A
STRAYED WAR OBVIOUSLY GOING TO
SUGGEST WE ARE MOVING IN THE
OTHER DIRECTION WE ARE MOVING
IN THE DIRECTION OF MAKING
DEAL WE SAW U.S. AND MEXICO
AT SOME POINT PERHAPS AFTER
THE MIDTERM ELECTIONS WE ARE
IN SHORT IF MEMORANDUM IS G
IN SHORT IF MOMORANDUM IS G
IN SHORT IF MOMENANDUM IS G
IN SHORT IF MOMENTUDUM IS G
IN SHORT IF MOMENTUMUM IS G
IN SHORT IF MOMENTUM I IS G
IN SHORT IF MOMENTUM INIS G
IN SHORT IF MOMENTUM IN R G
IN SHORT IF MOMENTUM IN RIG
IN SHORT IF MOMENTUM IN RIGHT
DIRECTION.
>> HOW CLOSE TO GETTING
SOMETHING DONE WITH CHINA?
>> NOT CLOSE.
>> WE HAD NEGOTIATIONS A WEEK
>> I PUSH BACK I WILL PUSH
BACK.
>> I CAN TELL YOU HOW I
MEASURE ALL OF A SUDDEN YOU
SEE THAT OTHER KINDS ARE
MAKING DEALS, YOU DON'T WANT
TO BE LEFT BEHIND, AND CANADA
CERTAINLY IN THAT BOAT SOME
POINT CHINA WILL BE IN THAT
SAME BOAT SO COMPARED TO TWO
OR THREE WEEKS AGO THE
MOMENTUM IS GOING THE RIGHT
DIRECTION.
>> O TO THAT WOINT
>> O TO THAT WOIN
>> O TO THAT POIN
>> O TO THAT POINT
>> O TO THAT POINT T
>> O TO THAT POINT THE
>> O TO THAT POINT THE W
>> O TO THAT POINT THE WOR
>> O TO THAT POINT THE WORRY
IS THE FACT THAT BUSINESSES
ARE WORRIED ABOUT THE NEXT 200
BILLION DOLLARS.
>> RIGHT.
>> AND AUTO TARIFFS SO IF YOU
--
>> RED TAPE WITH IT.
DAGEN: IF YOU DO SOMETHING
BUSINESSES REACT AND CUT JOBS,
CUT INVESTMENT PLANS,
PROACTIVELY AHEAD OF ANYTHING
HAPPENING IF YOU SOOTHE
CONCERNS GET THEM TO HOLD OFF
ON ANY ACTION THAT DOES HELP.
>> I AGREE WE ASK YOU A STOCK
MARKET BEHAVES THAT WAY THIS