YOU
YOU ARE
YOU ARE GETTING A GRAY LOOK AT SEATTLE.
SEATTLE.
SEATTLE. >>> WE WANT TO TALK ABOUT
SOMETHING SERIOUS.
SOMETHING SERIOUS. HEALTH OFFICIALS SAY THAT
AMERICANS SHOULD PREPARE FOR THE
CORONAVIRUS TO SPREAD IN THE
UNITED STATES.
UNITED STATES. >> THE CDC SAYS IT IS NOT A
MATTER OF IF BUT WHEN.
WE HAVE A PROFESSOR FROM THE
BIOLOGY LAB OF UNIVERSITY OF
WASHINGTON.
WASHINGTON. I THINK THE THEME A FEW WEEKS
AGO WAS LET'S NOT SOUND THE
ALARM.
ALARM.
ALARM. THIS IS NOT AN OUTBREAK BUT WE
SHOULD NOT FREAK OUT.
IS IT TIME TO FREAK OUT?
>> I DON'T THINK IT IS EVER
CALLED TO FREAK OUT.
WHEN YOU ARE CALLED, THE FIRST
PULSE YOU TAKE IS YOUR OWN TO
MAKE SURE YOU CAN CONTRIBUTE AND
HELP.
HELP.
HELP. WHAT THE CDC IS SAYING IS REALLY
ACCURATE.
ACCURATE.
ACCURATE. WE DON'T KNOW WHO TO TEST IN THE
UNITED STATES RIGHT NOW.
WE HAVE A LOT OF TRAVEL THAT
OCCURS.
OCCURS.
OCCURS. WE SHOULD EXPECT TO SEE
COMMUNITY SPREAD OF THIS VIRUS.
>> SO WHAT CAN WE DO?
HOW CAN WE REALLY PREPARE FOR
SOMETHING LIKE THIS?
YOU HAD A GOOD IDEA.
I
I THINK
I THINK AT THE BASE LEVEL, YOU SHOULD BE PREPARED IN A
HOUSEHOLD RIGHT NOW FOR LIKE AN
EARTHQUAKE, THAT COULD HAPPEN
ANY TIME.
ANY TIME.
ANY TIME. HAVE SOME FOOD AND WATER IN YOUR
HOME.
HOME.
HOME. THAT'S A GOOD PREPAREDNESS THING
TO BE ABLE TO DO.
I THINK YOU HAVE TO STAY ABREAST
OF INFORMATION.
OF INFORMATION. THAT'S ANOTHER IMPORTANT PART OF
PREPAREDNESS.
PREPAREDNESS. I THINK LIKE THE CDC SAID
YESTERDAY, KNOW WHO TO TALK TO
AT WORK AND SCHOOL FOR WHAT
MIGHT HAPPEN.
MIGHT HAPPEN. WHAT WE DID IN 2009, NOT THE
BEST ANOLOGY, THE H1N1, BUT AT
THAT TIME WE HAD SCHOOL
CLOSURES.
CLOSURES.
CLOSURES. IN HONG KONG, THE SCHOOLS HAVE
BEEN CLOSED FOR THREE WEEKS AND
WILL BE CLOSED FOR ANOTHER MONTH
OR MORE.
OR MORE.
OR MORE. >> WHEN WE LOOK BACK AT THE
PAST, WHAT LEVEL OF IMPACT DO
YOU THINK IT WILL HAVE IN THE
UNITED STATES?
UNITED STATES? AT WHAT POINT IS THAT A POSITIVE
THING OR DOES IT CAUSE A
PANDEMIC OF FEAR?
>> I WANT TO CLARIFY THE
QUESTION.
QUESTION.
QUESTION. >> WHAT WOULD BE A REALISTIC
TAKE WE SHOULD HAVE HERE IN
WESTERN WASHINGTON?
WESTERN WASHINGTON? DO YOU THINK PEOPLE SHOULDN'T
TRAVEL NO MATTER WHERE THEY ARE
GOING?
GOING?
GOING? BRAZIL, ITALY?
BRAZIL, ITALY? >> IT IS HARD TO MAKE
RECOMMENDATIONS.
RECOMMENDATIONS. IT TAKES TIME TO DETERMINE WHERE
THE TRANSMISSION OCCURRED.
USUALLY WHEN WE DETECT IT, IT IS
FROM A WEEK AGO.
SO
SO THAT
SO THAT IS HARD BECAUSE YOU ARE LOOKING TO THE PAST TRYING TO
PREDICT THE FUTURE.
HOW DO YOU DO THAT?
>> YOU DO A LOT OF MATHEMATICAL
MODELING.
MODELING.
MODELING. WE HAVE A LOT OF CASES OUT OF
CHINA AND A LOT OF INFORMATION
ON THAT.
ON THAT.
ON THAT. EACH SOCIETY IS A LITTLE
DIFFERENT.
DIFFERENT. MEDICAL CARE IS DIFFERENT IN
DIFFERENT PLACES.
DIFFERENT PLACES. THE AMOUNT OF DIING A NOSTIC
TESTING, WE DON'T KNOW HOW MANY
PEOPLE OUT THERE WHO HAVE IT AND
DON'T SEEK TREATMENT.
WE ARE LOOKING AT THE MORTALITY
RATE OF 2% AND THAT'S FOR PEOPLE
WHO ARE ACCESSING THE MEDICAL
SYSTEM.
SYSTEM.
SYSTEM. THOSE ARE THINGS WE NEED TO
UNDERSTAND IN THE UNITED STATES.
THAT'S WHAT HAPPENED IN 2009.
WE HAD A VIRUS EMERGE, WE DID A
LOT OF TESTING.
WE REALIZED THAT THIS WOULD BE
HARD TO STOP.
THE MORTALITY RATE WAS LOWER
THAN HAT WE FEARED.
AND WE SORT OF RETURNED TO
NORMAL BUSINESS IN A CERTAIN
WAY.
WAY.
WAY. THE
WAY. THE OTHER THING YOU CAN DO WITH
RESATORY VIRUSES IS TRY TO GET
TO THE SUMMER WHERE THERE IS A
LITTLE LESS TRANSMISSION.
AND HOPEFULLY WE CAN GET MORE
PREVENTIONS OUT.
PREVENTIONS OUT. >> AND LIKE YOU SAID, IT'S NOT
APPLES TO APPLES, BUT IN
SUMMARY, HOW DID THE H1N1 WRAP
UP?
UP?
UP? >>
UP? >> IT
UP? >> IT HASN'T.
IT IS STILL HERE, 10 YEARS
LATER.
LATER.
LATER. IT
LATER. IT IS STILL WITH US AND IT IS
SPREADING RIGHT NOW WITH THE
SECOND FLU SEASON.
WE SORT OF DON'T TALK ABOUT
THESE THINGS.
THESE THINGS. WE DON'T TALK ABOUT THE OTHER
CORONAVIRUSES, THE FOUR OTHER
ONES THAT SPREAD TO HUMAN
POPULATIONS.
POPULATIONS. I THINK THIS IS -- HOPEFULLY, IF
THERE IS ANYTHING THAT IS GOOD,
WE WILL BE ABLE TO DO TRIALS ON
THIS VIRUS WHICH WILL HOPEFULLY
LEAD TO APPROACHES TO AFFECT THE
OTHER VIRUSES.
OTHER VIRUSES. >> YOU EXPECT IT TO GET WORSE
BEFORE IT GETS BETTER?
>> WE ARE STILL GETTING
INFORMATION RIGHT NOW.
I THINK IT WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD.
SPREAD.
SPREAD. THE CDC SAYS THAT.
IT IS HARD TO KNOW WHO TO TEST.
WE DON'T HAVE TO CRITERIA OF
RECENT TRAVEL TO CHINA THAT WE
DID A FEW WEEKS AGO.
MOST LIKELY, IT WILL SPREAD.
>> WE HAVE THE