After nearly two months of a stunningly successful counteroffensive, it's almost
unthinkable that Ukraine could lose the war. Not only are Ukrainian troops increasingly
better equipped than their Russian counterparts, but Russia has been forced
to send poorly or even untrained conscripts straight to the front lines, and we already
have confirmation of fresh conscripts from Putin's mobilization being killed in Ukraine.
But the war in Ukraine is proving to be a long one, with many experts warning that even with
increasing Western support, Ukraine could be in this for the long-haul, a multi-year affair that
will expend titanic amounts of blood and equipment on both sides. Victory is far from certain.
So what would happen if Ukraine loses the war,
to answer this we need to look at how Russia could actually win at this point.
Things are looking grim for Russia. Putin's refusal to treat his special military operation
like the war it really is, led to him putting off mobilization until his forces were facing
dire manpower issues. Now he is rushing to put 300,000 conscripts on the front line,
though some reports state that the real figure is a million. A million is definitely a more
realistic figure if Putin still wants to conquer all of Ukraine, but 300,000
is a solid start to replenishing the staggering casualties Russian forces have suffered.
The problem is that mobilization is coming a day late and a dollar short. Immediately after
the invasion by Russia, Ukraine kicked off its national mobilization effort leading to
tens of thousands of recruits and volunteers being recruited into the armed forces in the first week
alone. The surge of manpower was so huge that the military was forced to turn people away,
encouraging them to instead form territorial defense units until it could handle the
influx of volunteers and conscripts. NATO soon stepped up to the plate and started shipping
Ukrainian troops to its European bases for training by its own military professionals,
this relieved the incredible burden on Ukraine and allowed it to expand its mobilization effort.
Now Ukrainian conscripts are finally hitting the front after six months of NATO-standard training.
By comparison, Russian troops aren't just less well trained, but its own conscripts are facing
rapidly accelerated training or none at all. Some units report as little as two weeks of training,
with the government promising a “few weeks” of refresher training for conscripts who were all
supposed to be military veterans already. Other units however have been sent to the
front with only a day or two at most of training as Russia struggles to play
catchup with a surge in Ukrainian manpower that threatens to leave Russia outgunned and
outmanned in hostile territory. To no one’s surprise, many of these conscripts have zero
previous military experience, only adding to their ineffectiveness as a fighting asset.
Equipment is another serious problem for Russia, as its stockpiles of modern equipment are rapidly
either being destroyed, used up, or graciously donated to the Ukrainians by retreating Russians.
It's estimated that Russia might have lost as much as 50% of its active tank forces,
and there's serious weight to that suspicion as increasingly older and older tanks are being
brought out of deep storage for frontline duty. The arrival of T-62s in Ukraine was
followed by the promise from Russia that they would be used as stationary fortifications.
Like most things from the Russian government, this proved to be a lie and soon confirmed T-62
kills were being reported from the front. Its modern tanks haven’t been faring much
better though, and in one of the most stunning developments in the entire war,
it was discovered that Russia’s vaunted 1st Guards Tanks Army suffered an overwhelming defeat
in Lyman during the Ukrainian counteroffensive. Dozens of tanks were destroyed or simply abandoned
by Russian troops retreating in panic. This is significant because the 1st Guards was Russia’s
premiere fighting force, specifically equipped and designed to go up against
the very best that NATO has. Outmanuevered by Ukrainian forces, suffering from low morale,
and under threat of being encircled, Russia’s elite tank force was forced to abandon its
vehicles and run for its life. Now Russia’s second-best tank forces are having to take on
Russia’s best tanks being driven by Ukrainians. If Russia were to pull out of the war today,
it would take at least a decade for it to rebuild its armored forces- but that
was before calculating the costs of sanctions against the nation that it bears today and is
likely to for a very long time to come. Russia is experiencing a microchip and semiconductor crisis,
forced to recycle these components from consumer goods to alleviate the shortage. Banned from
buying these and other critical components of modern military tech, Russia will at best
produce a handful of tanks each year- or be forced to field a mid-20th century fighting
force. Either way, this spells disaster for the nation and strongly hints at defeat in Ukraine.
So how could Russia miraculously turn things around in Ukraine,
and what happens if Ukraine loses?
For weeks now Russia has been saber-rattling by threatening the use of nuclear weapons in Ukraine.
Many rightfully feared that the annexation of four eastern Ukrainian provinces would lead to
the use of tactical nuclear weapons, as Russian doctrine states that nuclear weapons will be used
to defend Russian territory. To be more specific though, Russian nuclear doctrine states that
nuclear weapons are to be used when a conflict threatens the integrity of the Russian nation,
something that Ukraine's refusal to cede these annexed territories does not accomplish.
Putin however cares little for Russian law and doctrine,
and the threat of nuclear weapons remain. These could be used to secure victory,
but only if Russia is willing to use a lot of them and only if the rest of the world does nothing.
Tactical nuclear weapons are typically under the 100 kiloton range, though there is no
set limit on their yield. These weapons are meant to defeat formations of enemy troops,
not level cities and military bases. This makes them inherently limited in their use
during the present conflict, because Ukraine has learned to widely disperse their forces
only to bring them together rapidly for a sudden counter-attack or offensive. This means that
targets where a tactical nuclear weapon would be effective only exist for short periods of time,
the rest of the time enemy troops are simply too dispersed to be worth using them.
So Russia could opt instead to simply use many of them. Even a dozen tactical nuclear weapons
wouldn't do much to change the course of this war, Russia would need to commit to using several dozen
or even as many as a hundred just to hit enough targets of high enough military value to impact
Ukraine's ability to fight. But doing so comes with the immediate consequence of crossing a
red line that NATO has repeatedly warned Russia against, and while NATO has not made it clear
what the consequences would be, it's believed that the US and certain NATO allies are ready
to retaliate with conventional power against Russian forces in the Black Sea and Ukraine.
If however NATO does nothing, Russia could potentially use nuclear weapons to bring
Ukraine to heel. However it threatens irradiating much of the territory,
and even itself due to fallout carried on easterly winds.
Another way Russia could win this war would be through a decapitation strike against Ukraine's
government. President Zelensky has cemented his place in Ukrainian and European history
for his wartime leadership of his nation. However, eliminating him could cause support for continued
resistance to rapidly collapse- not for a lack of fighting spirit amongst Ukrainian troops and the
people, but because the Ukrainian government is still full of Russian sympathizers. The nation has
struggled for years against corruption fueled by Russian intelligence operatives and money;
famously the approaches to Kherson had been mined and the bridges prepared for demolition
as Russian troops advanced. However, someone ordered the mines cleared and
explosive charges removed, clearing the way for Russian troops to take the city.
Russia could used its large array of special forces to undertake an
assassination of President Zelensky, and hope to manipulate the surviving government into
putting a pro-Kremlin figure in place. All that figure would have to do is call for a
cease fire and the momentum of the war would shift away from Ukraine- perhaps permanently.
This was exactly what Russia had in mind at the start of the war,
and even after its attempt to take Kyiv failed,
it made several attempts on President Zelensky's life using intelligence operatives and special
forces- all of which were foiled by Ukrainian special forces and his entourage of guards. All
it would take however is one sniper's bullet to potentially change the course of the war.
The only other realistic way Russia could win this war is by exhausting the West's
support for Ukraine. Already there is fears of 'Ukraine-fatigue' amongst westerners,
after seven months of military and financial aid, some westerners might see that there
is no clear end to the war and pull their support. But Ukraine is winning this war,
and cutting support off now would be a disaster not just for Ukraine, but for Europe itself,
because Putin's ambitions do not end at NATO's easternmost borders.
For two decades Russian intelligence has worked to penetrate western governments
and societies. They have funneled large sums of money to far-right movements,
breeding xenophobic and nationalist political movements even inside of America- all with
the goal of splintering the NATO alliance. These operations have been quite successful,
Hungary today is more pro-Russia than pro-NATO, despite being a member of the alliance,
and the UK's Brexit movement was fueled in large part by Russian disinformation and propaganda.
Democracies can be mercurial in nature, and while they have many strengths over
a dictatorship like Russia's, this is also their greatest weakness. With
elections rapidly approaching for many Western nations, a swing in government could lead to a
catastrophic reduction or even outright stop on support for Ukraine just when it needs it most.
However, there is one nation where such a shift would spell immediate doom for Ukraine, and that
nation is more vulnerable to Russian propaganda than it has ever been. The United States has had
a storied ten years. During the Obama, Trump, and Biden presidencies the US has gone from a strong
NATO ally, to uncertain partner in the alliance leading to serious questions on European security,
and now back once more to strong ally and leader of the alliance. These whiplash-inducing shifts
in national policy have severely shaken global confidence in US leadership and reliability,
and in two years the United States will face another presidential election. A massive shift
away from current policy could lead to an end in support for both Ukraine and NATO,
and as the US has been responsible for the overwhelming bulk of financial, humanitarian,
and military support to Ukraine, this would immediately doom the nation to defeat.
But we may not have to wait two more years,
because US midterm elections are rapidly approaching and a massive shift in the
legislative branch could also lead to an end of support for Ukraine.
So what if Russia wins in Ukraine,
why does it matter to the rest of the world and what would Russia do next?
First, a Russian win would cement Putin's increasingly shaky hold on leadership.
While he would not be the heroic historical figure he dreams of being- Russia's price in
blood and equipment has simply been too great for that to happen anymore- it would at least
ensure that he remains in power for the long run. Relations between NATO and Russia would
continue to deteriorate even further, with the threat of armed conflict escalating.
The most immediate benefit to Russia would be control over the Black Sea,
a strategically important body of water that also happens to be full of natural
resources to exploit including gas and oil. From Russian bases in Ukraine,
the country could project much of its Cold War power in the region. The annexation of
Ukraine- a foregone conclusion at this point should Russia win- would also mean
that it has once more restablished the buffer between itself and the bulk of NATO's forces,
reversing one of the greatest catastrophes for Russia after the collapse of the Soviet Union.
But Ukraine is even more valuable for its resources. With Ukraine under its thumb,
Russia would once more have control over a significant amount of world food staples such
as wheat. As we have already seen in this war, Russia is not afraid of weaponizing
food exports in order to drive public opinion against its enemies. In Africa,
which is most affected by the blockade of Ukrainian wheat, Russian disinformation
has not had to work very hard to turn public opinion against the West and its sanctions of
Russia. By blaming the lack of food imports on western sanctions, instead of its own blockades,
much of the developing world has called for an end to sanctions on Russia. Ukraine doesn't just
export food to the developing world though, much of the rest of the world is also highly
reliant on it not just for wheat but things like sunflower oil. These commodities would now become
weapons in the hands of Russia, who could threaten embargos on nations not towing the Kremlin line.
Ukraine's energy resources are also significant, especially in the east and the Black Sea. It's
little surprise that Russia has worked hard to 'liberate' the Ukrainian east, as this
is where a high concentration of energy resources exist. Allowing Russia to have control over these
resources means further consolidating its position as a global energy superpower, and we've already
seen how Russia wields energy as a political tool to attempt to sway the west. The Nordstream
pipeline explosions have crippled energy imports into Europe, and analysis of the destroyed pipes
shows clearly that they were destroyed by line charges used in underwater demolition.
Even before the pipelines were destroyed though, Russia was already either threatening to or
actively cutting off gas export to Europe. Now nations like Germany, whom had a deep dependency
on Russia for energy, are facing an extremely cold winter. With Ukraine under its thumb, Russia's
influence would grow massively as it brings even more energy resources under its control.
Moldova however has serious problems if Russia wins in Ukraine. Its breakaway
region of Transnistria already hosts several hundred Russian troops who are
there allegedly as 'peacekeepers'. The area is very pro-Russian,
and would make for an easy excuse for Russian forces to next invade Moldova in its entirety,
restoring it into the old Soviet fold. Unlike Ukraine, Moldova simply doesn't
have the military infrastructure or even size for NATO to supply it in case of war, and even with
Russia's extraordinarily poorly performing military, the nation would quickly fall.
Emboldened by success in Ukraine and Moldova, it's very possible that Putin would next turn
his attention to the Baltic states, territory that he has long wanted to return back into the Soviet
fold. Estonia, Lithuania, and Latvia all border Russia and are very difficult for NATO to defend
from a Russian invasion. By driving his forces deep into the Baltic in a fait accompli attack,
Putin could splinter NATO as he's always dreamed of doing. The alliance would be
forced to decide if it's worth risking a third world war just to defend its most minor
members. With confidence in NATO's Article 5 shaken, members geographically closer to
Russia may see it's in their best interest to align itself with a resurgent Moscow,
rather than threaten angering it further. With no real legitimacy left, the binding
power of Article 5 would disintegrate, and with it possibly the alliance.
Now go check out US World War III Plan, or click this other video instead!