Speaker 1: But you know who should be worried right now, the Democratic Party.
A recent report by NBC News says that by all indicators.
The Democrats are basically poised for a midterm shellacking in twenty twenty two.
Now, before we even get into any of these indicators, let's talk about history.
Right.
And this is something that I'm sure David talked about.
I know.
I've talked about it.
And, yes, typically the party that retakes the White House will end up losing the midterms
in the following election.
Happen to Obama, it happened to Trump, it happened to Clinton, it happened, you know,
it happens.
It happens, it happens.
Historically, you're more likely to lose that first midterm than you are to win it.
Obviously, there are a couple of exceptions out there.
But that's typically what happens.
So even just historically, Biden and the Democrats would be poised to lose, but this NBC News
report says, hold up now, folks, it's a little bit more involved than even just that.
First and foremost, redistricting is happening.
And because Republicans control more state legislatures than the Democrats do, they get
to redraw more districts than the Democrats.
In fact, the number here is astounding.
You see, it is Republicans get to redraw one hundred and eighty seven districts.
Democrats get to redraw 75.
Yeah, that's not good, that's not good, especially for the party that obviously has a very strong
history of gerrymandering.
I mean, if you want to look at what a gerrymandered district looks like, look no further further
than Dan Crenshaw's district.
You know, you got your little almost a square thing and then you got this big, long loop
that curves around in a sea scooping up all the little Republican areas.
It's a ridiculously gerrymandered district.
And of course, with Republicans getting to redraw more than twice as many as the Democrats,
we're going to see more districts that look like that.
And that is unfortunate.
And it's something that we can't do a whole heck of a lot about right now, which I guess
just got to sit and watch it happen.
And that's terrifying.
That's a horrible way to have to look at these things, but that's what it is.
Second big indicator that NBC News points out is the money, right?
Statistically, the candidate that raises the most money has the best chance of winning.
And right now, Republicans are definitely outraising Democrats.
They have more cash on hand than the Democratic Party.
So that's a big advantage for them.
Another one that's actually, I guess, happened after NBC News had written this article or
they just decided not to include it for some reason is Afghanistan.
Afghanistan is going to play a role in the twenty, twenty two midterms, and because Biden
was president when all this chaos happened, when the Taliban retook Afghanistan, it's
going to fall at his feet and Republicans are going to try to use that to their advantage.
So that is a big hurdle that the Democratic Party is going to have to overcome.
And I don't know how they do it.
Pulling the troops out was the right decision.
The power vacuum created because of that, yes, it's the failures of the United States,
but it's the failures of 20 years, not just the failures of six months of Joe Biden.
So.
Unfair to put it at his feet, absolutely.
But Republicans are going to try to do that anyway, then, of course, you have covered
coming back, which again is not Joe Biden's fault, but Republicans are going to try to
make it that way.
As as we've talked about, Donald Trump is already trying to say that Joe Biden surrendered
to covid and if covid is still around by the twenty, twenty two midterms.
That's going to hurt Democrats a lot.
It really, really is, especially, you know, what's the breakdown of the House now is what?
Two hundred and twenty Democrats to two hundred and twelve Republicans?
Another problem Democrats have is that they've got several Democrats in swing districts who
are incumbents who are not running for office or they're seeking a Senate seat instead.
So those districts now become toss ups instead of having a strong Democratic incumbent.
And what happens when you have districts like that where an incumbent does not run, whether
it's a Republican or Democrat, by the way, you have to spend more money on an unknown
than you would on an incumbent.
So that race, even if you win, it, is going to take more resources to be able to win it.
So that's a big drain on the Democrats.
So how do they fix this?
Obviously, the easy answer you deliver for the American public, they got the child tax
credit going out right now, that's great.
You're showing people, look, we are giving you money, we're giving you money to help
you through this pandemic.
So that's a positive, the reconciliation bill, three and a half trillion dollars, depending
on whether or not sentiment mansion shave off some of that, that includes real tangible
benefits for pretty much every single district here in the United States.
That is a must pass piece of legislation.
And honestly, I think the midterms are going to hinge on what happens with that reconciliation
bill.
If you make promises to the public, as Joe Biden did, a promise to get rid of some student
loan debt, they've done a little, but not in any kind of widespread way that affects
a lot of people.
And that's unfortunate.
That could come back to bite you.
So if you deliver big time with this reconciliation bill and you give people something tangible,
something they can either hold or see for themselves that you have done.
You just might stave off what could be a midterm bloodbath for the Democratic Party.
So that's where it is, you know what to do, so get busy on it.
I'm Ferren Cousins in for David Pakman.
We'll be right back