Speaker 1: Could the coming 2022 midterm election be the worst midterm ever for Republicans?
In this particular situation, the situation being one that should be very good for the Republican
Party if you look historically. I know many of you are sick of hearing this from me, but I want to
remind everybody. Normally, when one party takes the White House from the other party in the first
midterm election, after that, that very party then loses a bunch of seats or potentially control of
the House or Senate. Meaning because Democrats took the White House from Republicans in 2020,
2022 should be very, very good for Republicans. And it was looking that way for a very long
time. And all of a sudden in the last month and in particular in the last two weeks,
things are looking dramatically different. We mentioned yesterday the Senate has approved this
Inflation Reduction Act bill to fight climate change and cut drug costs. This is a major
accomplishment. Assuming that the House passes it on Friday and then it is signed by Joe Biden,
both of which are expected to happen. This is a massive Biden accomplishment.
And then when you look bigger picture at the Biden accomplishments, you see that he did the
COVID stimulus, he did the Infrastructure and Jobs Act. He confirmed the first black female
Supreme Court justice. He did some gun safety legislation, although I think it's pretty weak
sauce. But at least it was something he did. The Chips Act for semiconductor manufacturing,
the NAITO expansion to include Finland and Sweden is in process. He expanded veterans health care.
He authorized the strike that killed terrorist Ayman al-Zawahiri, which, believe me, I understand
there are legal questions about whether the United States can or should be doing that,
but it is an accomplishment that Biden can claim. Fantastic jobs report last week,
3.5% unemployment, 55 straight days of gas price reduction, which again, remember, I don't even
think it has anything to do with Biden. I don't think the upswing had anything to do with Biden.
I don't think the downswing has anything to do with Joe Biden either. But the point is what is
reported and what can you take credit for? And tomorrow we have an inflation number coming out,
which I expect to be significantly lower than the peak numbers we saw over the last few months.
I may be wrong, but that's what I expect. And if that's the case, it will be another indicator
that the economy is looking better and better overall. Could this be a disastrous
midterm for Republicans? Well, the polling data is increasingly pointing that way. After
looking for months and months like Republicans were going to take the Senate definitively
from Democrats in the fall. The FiveThirtyEight forecast for the Senate now has Democrats at 59%,
likely to retain control of the Senate. Now, that's not overwhelming, but it is looking
increasingly good for Democrats in terms of the Senate. Now, in the House, it's not looking very
good. It still looks like about an 80% chance that Republicans win. Remember, 80% is not 100%. But
that's the way that it is looking right now. This is a massive, massive reversal from the way things
looked and quite frankly, the way things should look, speaking historically for Republicans.
What do you think we're going to see in November? And then the last piece of this, as
we spoke about this a little bit with political scientist Rachel Bitter Copper last week. She has
a slightly different view on it than I do. And I know many of you have different views about this
because of the overturning of Roe v Wade. This actually does seem like it is a midterm election
where running on abortion rights, on women having autonomy over their medical decisions
could be very good for Democrats. Typically, it is not an issue that is so good for Democrats.
Extraordinary circumstances. And as I've said before, there are some elections which just don't
feel like they're that important. The 2022 midterm and the 2024 presidential election, which are
honestly one in the same. I mean, the 24 election is almost getting going right now. And we're going
to look at some of those numbers later as well, because what is happening with Trump and de Santos
is extraordinary. Could this be a disaster for Republicans? Let me know what you think