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>> Stephen: WELCOME BACK, EVERYBODY.
JOINING ME NOW IS THE CO-FOUNDER OF MICROSOFT AND COE CHAIR OF
THE BILL AND MELINDA GATES FOUNDATION.
PLEASE WELCOME BILL GATES.
HI, THANKS FOR JOINING US.
>> NICE TO SEE YOUR HOUSE.
>> Stephen: IT'S NICE TO SEE YOURS, TOO, UNLESS YOU'RE
BROADCASTING FROM THE BILLIONAIRE BUNKER ON THE MOON
YOU SHARE WITH JEFF BEZOS.
>> YEAH, AT THE CLUB.
>> Stephen: WHOSE NIGHT IS IT TO COOK, ELON MUSK'S?
>> ABSOLUTELY.
>> Stephen: WELL, SIR, EVERYBODY'S TALKING ABOUT THE
TED TALK YOU GAVE IN 2015 ABOUT THE CRISIS THAT A COMING
PANDEMIC WOULD MEAN.
WHY WAS THIS SO OBVIOUS TO YOU AND OTHERS THAT THIS WAS
SOMETHING THAT WE HAD TO PREPARE FOR?
>> WELL, ONCE A DISEASE IS HUMAN-TO-HUMAN TRANCE
ADMISSIBLE, THEN IT -- TRANSMISSIBLE, THENT IT CAN
SPREAD ACROSS THE GLOBE BECAUSE THERE'S SO MUCH MORE
INTERNATIONAL TRAVEL, WE'RE MORE AT RISK TODAY THAN ANY TIME IN
HISTORY.
A FLU OR A CORONAVIRUS LIKE THAT LITERALLY COULD KILL TENS OF
MILLIONS.
SO WE SHOULD HAVE PRACTICED.
WE SHOULD HAVE SAID WHO'S GOING CONTACT TRACING, AND GOTTEN THE
INTERVENTIONS -- DIAGNOSTICS, DRUGS, VACCINES -- SO THEY'RE
READY TO GO MUCH FASTER.
SADLY, VERY LITTLE OF THAT WAS DONE.
>> Stephen: IF I'M NOT MISTAKEN, THOSE ARE THINGS
YOU'RE SAYING NEEDED TO BE PREPARED IN 2015.
DID ANYBODY LISTEN?
>> YES, THERE WAS A LITTLE BIT OF WORK DONE, MAYBE ABOUT 5% OF
WHAT SHOULD HAVE BEEN DONE, A GROUP CALLED COALITION FOR
EPIDEMIC PREPAREDNESS INNOVATIONS CREATED, MADE A
PROGRESS ON A FEW OF THESE VACCINE PLATFORMS ACTUALLY THAT
ARE AMONGST THE FIRST NOW THAT ARE GOING INTO HUMAN TRIALS.
>> Stephen: YOU RELEASED A MEMO TODAY THAT SAYS GLOBAL
INNOVATION IS THE KEY TO LIMITING THE DAMAGE.
WHAT INNOVATION ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT?
WHAT'S THE NUMBER ONE PRIORITY?
T WHAT DO WE HAVE TO INNOVATE FIRST?
>> WELL, IN THE NEAR TERM, IT'S THE SCALING UP OF TESTING AND
PRIORITIZING WHO GETS TESTING AND GETTING THE QUICK RESULTS.
IN THE MIDTERM, IT'S THESE TREATMENTS THAT CAN CUT THE
DEATH RATE DOWN POTENTIALLY DRAMATICALLY, AND THEN THE FINAL
SOLUTION, WHICH IS A YEAR TO TWO YEARS OFF, IS THE VACCINE.
SO WE'VE GOT TO GO FULL-SPEED AHEAD ON ALL THREE FRONTS.
>> Stephen: JUST TO HEAD OFF THE CONSPIRACY THEORISTS, MAYBE
WE SHOULDN'T CALL THE VACCINE THE FINAL SOLUTION, MAYBE JUST
THE BEST SOLUTION, OKAY.
>> YEAH, THE RETURN TO NORMAL SOLUTION.
>> Stephen: EXACTLY.
ARE YOU AWARE THAT THERE ARE PEOPLE OUT THERE WHO HAVE THESE
CONSPIRACY THESE ARE THAT THIS WAS CREATED BY YOU TO INOCULATED
EVERYONE IN THE WORLD AND PUT A CHIP INTO THEIR BLOOD SO YOU CAN
TRACK THEM?
>> YEAH, THAT'S VERY STRANGE THAT THE ORGANIZATION THAT'S
ABOUT SAVING LIVES AND WARNING, YOU KNOW, GETS ATTACKED AS
THOUGH WE WERE SOMEHOW CONNECTED TO IT.
>> Stephen: WELL, YOU DON'T SAVE OUR LIVES, YOU CAN'T
CONTROL OUR BRAINS.
( LAUGHTER ) NOW, YOU SAY THAT THE MEDICINES
OR THE TREATMENTS THAT ARE OUT THERE RIGHT NOW, WHAT ARE THE
THINGS THAT YOU -- DO YOU HAVE -- DO YOU HAVE ANY
KNOWLEDGE OF SOMETHING THAT IS SORT OF A LEADING CANDIDATE TO
TREAT THE CORONAVIRUS RIGHT NOW?
>> THERE'S MANY THAT I'M VERY HOPEFUL ABOUT.
THE ONE THAT IS MAYBE THE MOST PROMISING IS TAKING THE BLOOD OF
RECOVERED PATIENTS, THE PLASMA, AND THEN BEING ABLE TO PUT THAT
BACK INTO PEOPLE WHO HAVE THE DISEASE.
THAT HAS A REASONABLE CHANCE OF WORKING AND IN THE NEXT FEW
MONTHS WILL GET DATA ABOUT THAT.
YOU CAN CONCENTRATE THE PLASMA DOWN, SO THE AMOUNT YOU NEED TO
GIVE TO HELP SOMEBODY IS ACTUALLY PRETTY SMALL.
SO EVEN IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, THIS IS INTERVENTION THAT COULD
BE SCALED UP AND COULD WORK IN A POWERFUL WAY.
>> Stephen: DO YOU HAVE ANY SENSE OF WHERE THE WORLD IS ON
TESTING RIGHT NOW?
IS THERE A CHEAP AND EASY TEST COMING DOWN THE PIPE THAT WE
HAVEN'T HEARD ABOUT?
>> WELL, THE TESTING CAPACITY IF YOU'RE ORGANIZED PROPERLY IS
HIGH.
THE P.C.R. MACHINES, THERE'S A LOT OF THEM OUT THERE, BUT THE
GOVERNMENT HAS TO FIND THEM AND TELL PEOPLE WHO SHOULD BE
PRIORITIZED TO HAVE ACCESS TO THOSE MACHINES.
IN THE MEANTIME, THERE ARE INNOVATIONS LIKE A TEST -- AN
AT-HOME TEST THAT WE COULD HAVE AS SOON AS A FEW MONTHS FROM NOW
THAT WOULD ADD TO AT THE OVERALL CAPACITY, AND THAT'S REALLY
IMPORTANT BECAUSE YOU'RE BLIND.
WITHOUT QUICK RESULTS, PRIORITIZED TESTING, YOU'RE
BLIND WHETHER YOUR POLICIES ARE GOING TO CAUSE A SURGE THAT
WOULD PUT US BACK INTO THE BAD SITUATION WE HAVE RIGHT NOW.
>> Stephen: SO IF THERE IS NOT WIDE TESTING, IS THERE ANY WAY
TO KNOW WHAT THE NEXT PROPER STEP WOULD BE?
>> WELL, YOU WILL ALWAYS EVENTUALLY SEE IF YOU'VE MADE A
MISTAKE AND YOU OPEN UP TOO MUCH BECAUSE YOUR I.C.U.s WILL FILL
UP AND YOUR DEATHS WILL GO BACK.
WHAT YOU WOULD LIKE IS TO CATCH IT LITERALLY THREE WEEKS BEFORE
THAT BY SEEING THE POSITIVE TESTS GO UP, AND THEN YOU WILL
GO TOO FAR AND CERTAIN ACTIVITIES NEED TO BE RESTRICTED
EVEN MORE THAN YOU HAVE BEEN DOING.
CLEARLY, RIGHT NOW, IN MOST PARTS TO HAVE THE U.S., YOU
KNOW, THE INFECTION RATE IS STARTING TO GO DOWN.
WELL, THAT'S GOOD NEWS, BUT, OF COURSE, NO ONE WANTS TO STAY IN
THIS LOCKDOWN.
SO UNDERSTANDING WHICH THINGS CREATE LOW RISK AND HIGH
BENEFIT, THAT'S THE CHALLENGE IN POLICY WE HAVE TODAY.
>> Stephen: NOW, IT'S EASY FOR US TO SAY THAT THE LOCKDOWN
SHOULD CONTINUE BECAUSE YOU'RE DOING FINE FINANCIALLY, AND I'M
STILL WORKING MY JOB BECAUSE OF THE TECHNOLOGY THAT WE HAVE, BUT
THERE ARE 26 MILLION PEOPLE, PERHAPS MORE, OUT THERE WHO ARE
OUT OF A JOB RIGHT NOW, AND IT IS PERFECTLY REASONABLE TO WANT
THINGS TO OPEN UP AS QUICKLY AS WE CAN.
DO YOU HAVE ANY ADVICE TO THESE PEOPLE, ANY WORDS OF PATIENCE OR
HOPE FOR THEM AS TO HOW WE CAN TO IT BEST?
>> WELL, WE WILL GET BACK TO NORMAL, BUT WE'RE GOING TO HAVE
A PRETTY LONG PERIOD OF SEMI-NORMAL, AND --
>> Stephen: WHAT DOES SEMI-NORMAL MEAN?
>> THAT PEOPLE WILL STILL BE AFRAID.
YOU'RE NOT LIKELY TO FILL A STADIUM OR A THEME PARK, EVEN IF
THE GOVERNMENT SAID PLEASE, PLEASE DO, YOU KNOW, PEOPLE WANT
TO PROTECT THEIR HEALTH, THEY DON'T WANT TO INFECT THEIR
PARENTS.
SO A LOT OF BUSINESS MODELS WHERE YOU HAVE TO FILL UP PLANES
OR RESTAURANTS, THEY JUST AREN'T GOING TO WORK UNTIL WE CAN
APPROPRIATELY GET THE RISK OF INFECTION DOWN VERY
DRAMATICALLY.
SO I'M VERY HOPEFUL THAT THINGS LIKE MANUFACTURING AND
CONSTRUCTION WITH THE RIGHT PROTOCOLS OR EVEN SCHOOL WITH
THE RIGHT PROTOCOLS, WE CAN GELT THOSE GOING, BUT WE WON'T BE
ABLE TO DO EVERYTHING, BECAUSE WE SAW THAT CAUSE THAT
EXPONENTIAL INCREASE THAT, UNFORTUNATELY, WE CAUGHT IT IN
TIME BEFORE IT GOT TO THE WHOLE POPULATION, BUT NOT BEFORE
SUBSTANTIAL DEATHS.
>> Stephen: NOW, I'VE HEARD A LOT ABOUT CONTACT TRACING.
YOU SAID THAT'S VERY IMPORTANT.
HOW DO YOU DO THAT?
WHAT IS CONTACT TRACING?
>> WELL, THE IDEA IS THAT IF I TEST POSITIVE, WE WANT TO MAKE
SURE THAT ANYBODY WHO I MIGHT HAVE INFECTED FINDS OUT VERY
QUICKLY BEFORE THEY INFECT SOMEONE ELSE, AND THIS PCR TEST
IS ACTUALLY QUITE SENSITIVE, SO WE NEED TO FIND OUT WHO THOSE
PEOPLE ARE THAT YOU CAN NAME AND THE LOCATIONS YOU HAVE BEEN TO,
AND NOT ONLY DOES THAT HELP US FOR THAT INDIVIDUAL CASE, IT
GIVES US A PATTERN OF WHAT'S GOING ON, YOU KNOW, WHY IS MEAT
PACKING, YOU KNOW, ASSOCIATED WIDESPREAD, COULD YOU CHANGE
THAT.
CRUISE SHIPS FIRST SHOWED US HOW TOUGH CLOSE QUARTERS ARE FOR IT.
SO CONTACT TRACING, WE NEED TO STEP UP FOR THAT.
WE NEED TO GET THAT DATA.
THE COUNTRIES LIKE SOUTH KOREA AND GERMANY, WHO HAVE DONE THIS
WELL, THEY HAVE BEEN ABLE TO AVOID THE LOCKDOWN, AND THIS IS
WHAT WILL HELP US AVOID THE REBOUND.
>> Stephen: THE U.S. HAS CUT FUNDING TO THE W.H.O., AND, NOW,
YOU SAID, IN A TWEET LAST WEEK, THAT THIS IS JUST AS DANGEROUS
AS IT SOUNDS.
HOW DANGEROUS DOES IT SOUND TO YOU?
>> WELL, THE W.H.O., IS YOU KNOW, A SMALL ORGANIZATION --
SMALLER ORGANIZATION THAN PEOPLE THINK.
IT'S ABOUT A THOUSAND THE BUDGET OF THE U.S. HEALTHCARE SYSTEM,
BUT IT IS WHERE PEOPLE COME TOGETHER TO TALK ABOUT THE DRUGS
AND THE TESTING AND THE STATISTICS.
SO I THINK, ONCE THE U.S. STEPS BACK AND LOOKS AT THIS, THEY
WON'T CUT THE FUNDING.
THEY'LL ACTUALLY INCREASE THE FUNDING BECAUSE W.H.O.'S PLAYING
THAT CENTRAL ROLE.
IT'S FINE TO SAY, LIKE EVERYONE, THEY COULD HAVE REACTED IN
DIFFERENT WAYS, BUT WE NEED THEM.
WE NEED THEM TO PULL TOGETHER ALL THE SCIENTIFIC KNOWLEDGE AND
GET GUIDELINES OUT TO THE COUNTRIES OF THE WORLD.
SO I'M PRETTY SURE THAT WE WON'T ACTUALLY DEFUND THEM BECAUSE
TELLING THEM TO FIRE THEIR PEOPLE, YOU KNOW, RIGHT NOW WHEN
WE MOST NEED THEM WOULD BE A MISTAKE.
>> Stephen: BILL, IF YOU CAN JUST HUNKER DOWN IN THE BUNKER,
WE'LL BE RIGHT BACK WITH MORE BILL GATES.
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