>>> WE’RE ABOUT A YEAR OUT FORRO THE 2020 ELECTION.
TRYING TO FIGURE OUT WHAT
EXACTLY DOES A WHITE WORKING
CLASS VOTER IN MICHIGAN WANT?
WHAT DO THEY WANT FROM A
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE?
PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE? BUT THIS WEEK THOSE PEOPLE DID
NOT NEED TO RELY ON POLLS.
IT WASN’T CALLING PEOPLE UP AND
ASKING WHO THEY’RE GOING TO VOTE
FOR.
FOR. IT HAPPENED ON GROUND AND IT’S
MUCH BETTER DATA TO ANALYZE THAN
POLLS, I THINK.
THE TOP LINE IS THERE WAS A LOT
OF GOOD NEWS FOR DEMOCRATS.
THEY TOOK UNIFIED CONTROL IN
VIRGINIA, AND DEMOCRATS DID
EXTREMELY WELL IN THE SUBURBAN
DISTRICTS THAT ARE SEEN AS
CRUCIAL TO WINNING ELECTIONS IN
2020.
2020. AND THERE WERE ALSO DATA TO GIVE
PEOPLE OPPOSED TO THE REPUBLICAN
PARTY CONCERN.
PARTY CONCERN. HERE ONE OF THE BEST ANALYSTS
OUT THERE MSNBC NATIONAL
CORRESPONDENT STEVE KORNACKI.
HOW ARE YOU, BUDDY?
SO, YOU KNOW, ONE OF THE BIGGEST
TRENDS I THINK IT’S FAIR TO SAY
IN THE TRUMP ERA SINCE THAT 2016
ELECTION, SPECIAL ELECTIONS, IN
THE MID-TERMS IS THE SUBURBS,
RIGHT?
RIGHT? WHAT IS GOING ON IN AMERICA’S
SUBURBS IN THE TRUMP ERA?
>> I THINK A COUPLE OF THINGS.
NUMBER ONE, JUST IN TERM OF
OPPOSITION FOR TRUMP, THE
ENERGY, THE MOTIVATION TO GET
OUT AND VOTE IT’S VERY CLEARLY
THERE, IT’S A STORY IN
PENNSYLVANIA.
PENNSYLVANIA. THIS WEEK LOCAL ELECTIONS,
COUNTY ELECTIONS IN
PENNSYLVANIA, SUBURBS OF
PHILADELPHIA, DEMOCRATS WERE
TAKING OVER GOVERNMENTS THERE IN
SOME PLACES THEY HADN’T LED
AND --
AND -- >> THOSE RACES, THOSE
PENNSYLVANIA RACE, VIRGINIA IS
ON THIS WEIRD SCHEDULE SO
THERE’S A BUNCH OF PEOPLE ON THE
BALLOT.
BALLOT. THOSE ARE REAL JUST LOCAL COUNTY
RACES HAPPENING IN PENNSYLVANIA,
PEOPLE STILL COMING OUT.
>> AND I THINK WHAT IT REFLECTED
THERE WHAT’S THE DIFFERENCE.
I THINK WHAT YOU’RE SEEING THERE
IS THE SINKING UP OF NATIONAL
POLITICS WITH EVERYTHING DOWN
BALLOT FROM THERE.
BECAUSE YOU HAVE COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA THAT HAVE
BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS THE
DEMOCRATS.
DEMOCRATS. HILLARY CLINTON HAD WON BY 9
POINTS IN ONE COUNTY, BY 22
POINTS IN THE OTHER COUNTY.
STILL THERE WAS RESIDUAL
REPUBLICAN STRENGTH AT THE LOCAL
COUNTY LEVEL, AND I THINK THIS
IS ONE OF THE STORIES OF THE
TRUMP ERA IS EVERYTHING BELOW
PRESENT ON THE BALLOT IS KIND OF
COLORING ITSELF IN.
SO I THINK THAT’S ONE OF THE
THINGS YOU’RE SEEING THERE IN
PENNSYLVANIA AND OTHER PLACES.
>> THERE WAS ALSO SOME
INTERESTING RESULTS IN THE
CINCINNATI SUBURB, A FEW
COUNTIES UP THERE IN THE
NORTHERN COUNTY OF THE STATE
THAT REALLY HELPED THAT DEMOCRAT
PULL OFF THAT UPSET VICTORY.
>> THIS IS REALLY INTERESTING
STORY BECAUSE MATT BEVIN LOST
FOR A NUMBER OF REASONS.
THEY ACCOUNT FOR 10% OF THE VOTE
STATEWIDE, IF HE’D DONE WHAT A
REPUBLICAN NORMALLY DOES, HE IS
STILL THE GOVERNOR.
INSTEAD THE DEMOCRAT ACTUALLY
WON TWO OF THE THREE COUNTIES.
>> WHICH IS JUST NOT REALLY
HEARD OF IN SORT OF BIG RACES
LIKE THIS.
LIKE THIS. >> YOU’RE TALKING TRUMP GETTING
IN THE HIGH 50s TO HIGH 60s.
AND BEVIN WAS GETTING INTO THE
40s AND LOW TO MID-50s.
DID THAT REFLECT THE SAME THING
WE’RE TALKING ABOUT IN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NATIONALLY, OR
DID THAT REFLECT SOMETHING THAT
WAS MORE BEVIN SPECIFIC?
AND THE REASON I THINK THAT’S A
QUESTION THERE WERE FIVE OTHER
STATEWIDE ELECTIONS IN KENTUCKY.
THE OTHER FIVE REPUBLICAN
CANDIDATES GOT THE NUMBER
REPUBLICAN NUMBER IN THOSE THREE
COUNTIES.
COUNTIES. >> THAT LEADS TO ME I THINK THE
BIG QUESTION ABOUT THE SUBURBS.
WHICH IS ARE WE SEEING SOME KIND
OF PENDULUM OR A REALIGNMENT.
IF YOU GO BACK TO 2010 AND LOOK
AT A LOT OF THESE SUBURBAN
AREAS, THEY MOVED A LOT TO THE
RIGHT.
RIGHT. THEY SAID A LOT OF REPUBLICANS,
A LOT OF REPUBLICANS TAKE OVER
THE STATEHOUSES, AND THAT’S A
KIND OF MOTIVATIONAL QUESTION
WHO’S COMING UP TO VOTE LARGELY
IN THOSE MID-TERMS, BUT THEN THE
OTHER COMPARISON IS HOW THE
SOLID SOUTH USED TO BE
DEMOCRATIC AND THEY STARTED
VOTING AND MOVED DOWN THE BALLOT
UNTIL EVERY LAST COUNTY
COMMISSIONER IS NOW A REPUBLICAN
AS WELL.
AS WELL. WHAT DO YOU THINK THE EVIDENCE
SAYS ABOUT WHAT WE’RE SEEING IN
THE SUBURBS BEING SOMETHING
PERMANENT OR SOMETHING CYCLICAL.
>> NOTHING IS PERMANENT.
I THINK IT’S LONGER TERM BECAUSE
WE ALREADY KNOW IT’S LONGER
TERM.
TERM. WE HAVE A LONGER TERM TREND IN
AMERICAN POLITICS, GOING BACK
DECADES NOW WHERE WE TALK ABOUT
WHITE COLLEGE EDUCATED VERSUS
NON-COLLEGE.
NON-COLLEGE. WHAT WE’VE SEEN FOR DECADES NOW
IS A TREND IN DEMOCRATS FAVOR
AND A TREND DECIDEDLY AWAY FROM
DEMOCRATS AND TOWARDS THE
REPUBLICANS AMONG NON-COLLEGE
WHITES.
WHITES. IF YOU TAKE THAT AND ADD IN THE
FACT THAT SUBURBS GENERALLY IN A
LOT OF PLACES ARE GETTING MORE
RACIALLY AND ETHNICALLY DIVERSE,
DEMOCRATIC CONSTITUENCIES FOR A
LONG TIME NOW, THOSE TWO
FACTORS, I THINK IT’S A
LONG-TERM TREND THAT DOESN’T
SHOW ANY SIGN OF EBBING.
>> THE COMPOSITION OF THE
SUBURBS IS CHANGING IS A BIG
PART OF THE STORY.
THE OTHER PART OF THE STORY TO
ME IS TURN OUT.
SO THE GOOD NEWS FOR REPUBLICANS
IN THE TRUMP ERA IS THEY REALLY
ARE JUICING TURN OUT IN THESE
RURAL RED DISTRICTS AND GOOSING
ENORMOUS MARGINS, RIGHT?
WE DID SEE THAT IN KENTUCKY.
>> AND WE SAW THAT IN
PENNSYLVANIA.
PENNSYLVANIA. WE HAD THE STORY OF PHILADELPHIA
SUBURBS.
SUBURBS. GO TO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA.
THERE ARE COUNTIES IN WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA MIRROR IMAGE,
LONG-TERM DEMOCRATIC COUNTIES
THAT FLIPPED TO REPUBLICAN ON
TUESDAY.
TUESDAY. I THINK THERE ARE CAUTIONARY
NOTES HERE FOR DEMOCRATS WHO
LOOK AT THE NOTES AND
EXTRAPOLATE THAT AND SAY THERE
IS WHAT’S GOING TO HAPPEN IN
2020.
2020. CHUCK SCHUMER HE WAS ASKED ABOUT
PENNSYLVANIA -- KEY SENATE RACE
IN PENNSYLVANIA.
IN PENNSYLVANIA. AND HE SAID DON’T WORRY, WE’RE
FINE.
FINE. FOR ONE EVERY DEMOCRAT WE LOSE
IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA, WE GAIN
TWO SUBURBAN REPUBLICANS.
MATH DIDN’T WORK OUT THAT WAY.
>> IT’S GENERALLY BEEN WORKING
IN THE SUBURBS IN 2018 IN
SPECIAL ELECTIONS.
SPECIAL ELECTIONS. MATT BEVIN IF I’M NOT MISTAKEN
HE GETS 200,000 MORE VOTES THAN
2015, AND HE STILL LOSES BECAUSE
BOTH SIDES ARE SO ACTIVATED.
>> MASSIVE TURN OUT.
1.4 MILLION PEOPLE TURNED OUT IN
THAT NATIONAL GUBERNATORIAL
ELECTION.
ELECTION. 2015, 973,000.
2015, 973,000. MID-TERM TURN OUT LAST YEAR
YOU’RE TALKING OVER 115 MILLION
PEOPLE.
PEOPLE. NORMALLY YOU’RE GETTING ABOUT 85
MILLION.
MILLION. IN A PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION YOU
GET 130.
GET 130. I THINK THERE’S TALK NEXT YEAR
JUST GIVEN THESE TURN OUT TRENDS
WE’RE SEEING, 145, 150 MILLION,
EASILY GOING TO BE THE HIGHEST
TURN OUT IN OUR PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTION HISTORY.
ELECTION HISTORY. >> AND THE BEGINNINGS OF
CAMPAIGN ARE WELL RUN, ONE WILL
THINK OF -- AND THEY’LL DO THE
MATH AND THAT’LL DETERMINE THE
FIELD PLAN, THEIR ADVERTISING
BUYS.
BUYS. THEY’RE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW
DO WE ADD UP ENOUGH VOTES TO HIT
THE NUMBER WE NEED?
AND ONE OF THE THINGS THAT LEADS
TO UPSETS IS YOU JUST GET THE
VOTE NUMBER WRONG.
YOU SAY WE NEED NICE MANY VOTES.
MATT BEVIN SAID IF I GOT 700,000
VOTES I’M GOOD TO GO, AND HE GOT
700,000 VOTES.
700,000 VOTES. >> WE TALK ABOUT RURAL AREAS,
YOU TALK ABOUT EX-URBAN AREAS
WHERE REPUBLICANS ARE STILL
SHOWING STRENGTHS.
SHOWING STRENGTHS. THE BIG EXFACTOR IN ALL OF THIS
IS YOU KNOW THE SUBURBS,
ANTI-TRUMP FOLKS IN THE SUBURBS
ARE DETERMINED TO GET OUT THERE
IN EVERY SINGLE ELECTION RIGHT
NOW AND VOTE AGAINST TRUMP.
BUT THERE’S STILL A LOT OF
GROUND REPUBLICANS COULD GAIN
YET IN THOSE AREAS.
>> AND SOMEONE SAID I THINK
THERE’S ABOUT 45 MILLION
NON-WHITE COLLEGE VOTERS NOT
VOTING.
VOTING. THERE’S A BIG POOL.
IT IS NOT THE CASE THE TRUMP
BASE AS A SORT OF ELECTORAL
FORCE IS MAXED OUT.
>> RIGHT, AND I THINK THE
DYNAMIC HERE YOU’RE REALLY
SEEING, EACH SIDE IS JUST
REACTING TO THE OTHER, AND THE
BEST SOURCE OF TURN OUT FOR ONE
SIDE IS THE OTHER.
>> STEVE KORNACKI, THAT WAS
GREAT.
GREAT. THANK YOU FOR BEING WITH US.
>>> COMING UP, SO WHAT HAPPENS
WHEN A PRESIDENT AND CONGRESS
ESSENTIALLY GO TO WAR?
EMILY OF "THE NEW YORK TIMES"
HAS A GREAT NEW PIECE ON JUST
THAT AND SHE WILL TELL US.
DON’T GO AWAY.
anything.
The problem is corporations
and the people who run and own them
have purchased our democracy.
Here’s the difference between
me and the other candidates.
I don’t think we can fix our democracy
from the inside.
I don’t believe Washington politicians
and big corporations will let that happen.
The only way we can make change happen
is from the outside.
For me,
this comes down to whether you trust the politicians
or the people.
And if you say you trust the people,
are you willing to stand up to the insiders
and the big corporations,
and give the people the tools they need
to fix our democracy.
A national referendum.
Term limits.
Eliminating corporate money in politics.
Making it easy to vote.
I trust the people.
And as President, I will give you tools
we need to fix our democracy.
I’m Tom Steyer, and I approve this message.
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