Well, let's get into the headlines, folks.
- That was off the rails, but in a good way. - Yeah.
But anytime I think of the back of someone's hand touching Nick, you know.
- Alright. Anyway, CME Group: - That's right, baby.
- Ethereum and Bitcoin-- - Eye contact.
Ethereum to outperform Bitcoin after halving?
Uh-oh. What's going on with this?
The CME Group, which operates a derivatives marketplace,
published a report discussing the dynamics between BTC and ETH
in the context of the upcoming halving event.
Scheduled around April '24, I think.
CME Group is analyzing the correlation between Bitcoin and ETH months before halving,
an event whose ripple effects would likely be felt across the market
considering Bitcoin's capitalization and status.
Historically, halving events have supported Bitcoin prices
while also lifting altcoins in the process.
I would say, yeah, Bitcoin's price appreciation lifts the altcoins in the process.
The report recognizes the correlation between ETH and Bitcoin
and how the ETH-Bitcoin pair has moved over the years.
However, they mentioned other possible triggers of a Bitcoin bull run
that could impact the pair and influence ETH's valuation,
possibly forcing ETH to outperform Bitcoin.
Top of the list, he says, are the effects of the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine
which could increase Bitcoin's demand.
I don't know if you saw.
It looks like a lot of mining equipment on the way to Russia right now.
- Their hash rates are on the way up. - Oh, yeah. For sure.
Besides, the report highlights the unexpected impact of events
like the collapse of regional banks,
and which temporarily boosted prices of Bitcoin and ETH,
as factors to watch out for.
So we got collapsing banks abroad.
We have, you know, nations starting to get really, really into Bitcoin.
And really, I would say the main story there, they're rejecting the dollar.
They're looking around.
Looking around. "I don't see anything."
"I see Chinese digital yuan."
"Uh, that's a little sketch."
"I see Venezuela's currency. Maybe I should use that."
"No, no, it probably needs to stick away."
Then I see the shining beacon.
- There it is. - Over the hill.
I see this. It's blinding me, okay?
I feel like I looked upon an angel.
- My skin had melted when I looked at it. - That's right.
That's what they see.
When they look at this.
Is that what you see?
You know what I see?
- Not enough likes. - Oh, yeah. Wait.
How many are we at?
- Not enough. - Okay.
I don't even know the number.
- I just know it's not enough. - 700
- We've got to pump them up. - Deezy,
- the CME is the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, right? - Yes. Yes.
They are the commodities--
- basically, the biggest commodities-- - Yes.
- so-- - You want to have a future on pork bellies?
- You go to Chicago, the CME. - Yeah.
Are you on the Robinhood app?
Have you bought half a ton of corn by accident?
- I have not bought 1,000 pounds of corn. - Well, you're about to get it--
Have you?
no.
But have you heard the stories of people buying commodities
and then not selling them and then they get delivery of corn to their house?
That sounds kind of cool.
Now, if I did that, I would want to make sure I have Monsanto corn
- because I want to be able to dunk-- - That's what you can get--
I want to clean my corn in buckets of Roundup.
So here's what I'm looking at through the tea leaves
is our--
have high-level operators at the CME already been given a tip-off
that Ethereum was going to be called a commodity?
- If they're studying it. - Hmmm. Okay, okay. Maybe.
Why would they spend the time to do this if it's not going to be a commodity?
Why would they look into Ethereum if it wasn't going to be a commodity?
That is a very good question.
I can't think of one.
I can't think of one because they're not a press company. Right?
- They're not a media company. - Yeah.
They're not trying to get attention.
If anything, they probably don't like that this study is being talked about
- between us right now. - No.
No, they don't like it.
This is the alpha you get on BitBoy Crypto channel.
- Alright. - If you want more alpha,
smash that like button.
I just now looked at your shirt.
Alright.
- Vibecession. - Hold up. One more.
- I'm not going to do the vibecession. - I brought my--
- you're not going to do vibecession? - Oh, wait. That's right. It's your thing. Alright.
"Is the vibecession over?"
This is--
I feel like this is-- they look at some random vlogger,
and they're like, "This is what Millennials think."
A lot of people have been asking "is the vibecession over?"
- over the past few weeks. - Hang on. Hang on.
This is Kyla Scanlon.
So she's like an influencer.
She's on TikTok.
She was just on Fast Company.
Like, she is--
this isn't some, you know, Gen X, you know, boomer.
This is--
- she's younger than us by a long stretch, so. - Okay. Okay.
That's why I figured you'd like this article because it's not written by a boomer.
It's--
- she's like 27. She's a teacher. - When I hear people talking about vibes,
I think they're a crystal person.
- I know. This is all tongue in cheek. - Nothing against crystal people. Okay?
- We like our crystal holders. - Everything against crystal people.
Everything?
- You worship the devil. - Oh.
Okay. Alright.
Well, back to the story here.
The staff now has a noticeable slowdown in growth starting later this year in the forecast,
but given the resilience of the economy recently, they are no longer forecasting a recession.
It certainly seems that both the vibecession and the fear of a recession are somewhat gone?
Vibes are clear in both consumer sentiment and real wages with
consumer sentiment is at all-time highs, as gas prices tick down.
Here, we're looking--
okay. So US consumer index or consumer sentiment is the purple line.
Okay. We're all-time high for the year.
So we're all-time high for the year.
It looks like we were last at these levels in--
oh, okay.
Bullish area of '21.
So, I would say that's actually pretty good comparing it to the second half of '21.
We seemingly avoided a big downturn due to combination of mostly big fiscal,
aka, you know, hey, it looks like government is spending money.
I guess we've got to print some.
$700 billion in subsidies here.
And also companies issuing debt at low rates.
Okay. And just as a flag on doomerism,
"One of my favorite charts of all-time:
the lost returns from listening to esteemed, perennial doomsayers"
Is Kiyosaki on here somewhere?
Shockingly, no, but Paul Krugman is.
Okay, okay. Yeah, okay.
Alright. So, here, we got the names on the right there.
So COVID did not rescue the Armageddonists from underperformance purgatory.
Performance impact of shifting $1 from the S&P,
measured from the week of the Armageddonist comment
to November 13, 2020.
Yet, the vibes are not perfect.
We still have student loan payments starting to back up.
It's bifurcated here.
We got drops in drops in Medicaid enrollment, rising hunger, maybe rising homelessness as well.
Housing is still a nightmare.
People do not want to sell their home.
And workers are going on strike which is important!
So, yeah, there's going to be increased wages.
I don't know.
Teamsters--
Amazon has some stuff that is in the UPS ecosystem, correct?
- They don't do everything. - You can ship UPS. Yeah.
And it will-- what they call last mile, they'll do it through Amazon.
But UPS will be--
if it's coming from California to Georgia, it will be UPS.
Did you see the recent strike details?
It looks like maybe the average wage is going to be $49.
- An hour, yeah. The UPS. - I think. $49 an hour.
And then new part-time employee starting salary,
- $26, $27 an hour? - Yeah.
Is this is going to impact our Amazon items cost?
No. Amazon is not going to jack up prices.
They will keep it low because they are trying to stay ahead of Walmart.
Thank you Walmart for keeping the retail game competitive
because that is what Amazon is most afraid of right now.
- Okay. Alright. Alright. - So.
I might say they could go up a little.
They could go up a little.
- Not in any serious way. - Yeah.
But we'll see.
- It's probably going to be the bigger items. - Food--
The things that weigh 50 pounds,
- that probably has a high percentage of its shipping cost as due to UPS. - Yes. Yes.
But small things where it's coming from the warehouse,
- put on the van, - Yeah.
- and then they drive and drop, - Batteries--
- that will have zero impact with the UPS. - Yeah.
- Batteries, iPads, you know. - Yeah.
So I guess it will be item dependent,
- but I could see if you order a lawn mower, - Yeah.
- or something like that-- - And food.
- food. - Food will also--
by the way,
news update,
- your food is going to go up in price. - Yeah. Yeah.
- Your food will go up in price. - Yeah.
Alright. I think we have one last thing here.
I guess on a human note, I've been struggling with describing the economy recently.
I've written on doomers and the cult of nostalgia
and how we seem to get caught in these infinite repeating loops
of thingbadthingbadthingbad.
Okay.
Basically saying we fetishize doomsaying here.
- Would you say that's a rough assessment? - Yeah, doomscrolling.
And, like, what does this mean for crypto people?
Well, it means that if the vibes are mid, then the market is going to be mid for a while.
Yeah, the vibes are sus for real.
If the vibes are sus,
that means you get to accumulate more.
Congratulations.