THEY CAN DO AS THE MUDDY SEASON
HAS SET IN.
THERE'S A MOMENT THEY NEED TO
RESUPPLY THE UKRAINIANS BEFORE
RUSSIA BEGINS THEIR OFFENSIVE.
>> ACCORDING TO A "NEW YORK
TIMES" REPORT, RUSSIA'S PULL
BACK FROM KYIV APPEARS TO BE
REAL.
OFFICIALS AND ANALYSTS SAY THE
RETREAT MAY SHOW SIGNS THAT
RUSSIA'S INITIAL STRATEGY HAS
STALLED IN THE FACE OF GRAVE
PLANNING FAILURES, LOGISTICAL
PROBLEMS AND UKRAINIAN
RESISTANCE.
THE NEW ANALYSIS COMES AFTER
PENTAGON AND NATO OFFICIALS
INITIALLY RAISED DOUBTS ABOUT
THE RUSSIAN WITHDRAWAL, ARGUING
IT COULD BE A ROO POSITIONING OF
FORCES OR A CHANCE TO REFIT AND
RESUPPLY FORCES.
>> IT LOOKS LIKE A SLOPPY
POSITIONING OF FORCES TO ME.
>> GENERAL STAFF TWITTERY WHO
SERVED IN AFGHANISTAN.
AND PRIOR TO HIS RETIREMENT IN
2020 HE WAS DEPUTY COMMANDER OF
THE UNITED STATES EUROPEAN
COMMAND.
AND AT THE BIG BOARD NATIONAL
SECURITY ANALYST FOR NBC NEWS
AND MSNBC, CLINT WATTS.
CLINT, WE WILL START WITH YOU.
WHERE ARE THE RUSSIANS RIGHT
NOW?
>> MIKA, REMARKABLE, REMARKABLE
TURN AROUND IN THE LAST THREE
WEEKS.
WHEN WE LOOK HERE, IT WAS ALL
RED TWO WEEKS AGO.
WHAT DO WE SEE NOW?
WE SEE LOTS OF LIGHT BLUE WHERE
THE UKRAINIANS HAVE CONDUCTED
COUNTEROFFENSES AND TAKEN BACK
TERRITORY.
THIS IS WHAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT
THIS MORNING.
IN THE SUBURBS HERE WHEN YOU
LOOK TO THE NORTHWEST, THIS IS
WHERE WE'RE FINDING EVIDENCE OF
WAR CRIMES IN AND AROUND BUCHA,
SOME OF THESE TERRITORIES.
ESSENTIALLY WHAT THE UKRAINIANS
WERE ABLE TO DO, TEN DAYS AGO WE
WERE TALKING ABOUT THIS SUBURB
OUT IN THIS AREA.
THEY WERE ABLE TO LAUNCH
ESSENTIALLY A COUNTERATTACK
LEAVING THESE RUSSIAN TROOPS
HERE EXPOSED.
ESSENTIALLY THEY COULD HAVE BEEN
CUT OFF.
WHAT YOU ARE FINDING NOW, YOU
ARE HEARING THE STORY OF LOST
RUSSIAN UNITS OR INDIVIDUAL
SOLDIERS.
THEY'RE ESSENTIALLY LEFT IN THE
SUBURBS FIGHTING AGAINST THE
UKRAINIAN MILITARY.
SEPARATELY, WHAT I WANT TO SAY
IS WHEN YOU WATCH THE RUSSIAN
WITHDRAWAL, IMAGINE AN ORGANIZED
ONE WOULD BE THREE OR FOUR
UNITS, TWO WOULD CONTINUE TO
FIGHT FORWARD LIKE THIS AND ONE
WOULD RETREAT.
THEY'RE NOT EVEN SUCCESSFULLY
PULLING THIS OFF.
THIS ENTIRE UNIT HERE, REMEMBER
IT IS THE CONVOY STUCK IN WEEK
ONE AND TWO, THEY'VE BEEN A
DISASTER ON THE BATTLEFIELD.
THEY'RE BEING CHEWED UP BY THE
UKRAINIAN MILITARY.
WE'RE HAVING THE SAME THING
HAPPENING HERE TO THE EAST BY
BREVARIA WHERE UKRAINIAN
COUNTERATTACKS ARE PUSHING
THROUGH, RUSSIAN ARMOR ARE
TRYING TO SCREECH BACK TO THE
BORDER FOR SAFE HARBOR.
WHEN YOU PULL BACK TO THE BIGGER
PICTURE THIS IS WHAT WE'RE
TALKING ABOUT.
AROUND KYIV TROOPS MOVING BACK
TO BELARUS ESSENTIALLY TO BE
REPOSITIONED DOWN HERE IN
KHARKIV, THE EASTERN FRONT.
IN THE EASTERN FRONT HERE THERE
WAS A KEY BATTLE WE WERE
WATCHING OVER THE WEEKEND.
THE RUSSIANS CLAIM THEY'VE TAKEN
THIS AREA OF IZYUM.
THEIR GOAL ESSENTIALLY IS TO
LINK UP THE FORCES IN THE EAST.
ONCE THEY HAVE THE NORTHWESTERN
AXIS AND THIS ONE IN THE
SOUTHEAST LINKED UP THEY WILL BE
ABLE TO UNIFY FORCES AROUND THE
BROADER AREA KNOWN AS THE DONBAS
HERE.
REMEMBER, VLADIMIR PUTIN SAID IN
THE VERY BEGINNING HIS REASON
FOR GOING IN, WHICH WAS
ESSENTIALLY A LIE, IT WAS A
FOIL, WAS TO TAKE THIS AREA HERE
IN THE EAST.
WHAT WE ALSO SEE IS THE RUSSIANS
ESSENTIALLY DIGGING INTO THE
POSITIONS DOWN HERE IN THE
SOUTH.
RATHER THAN TRY TO TAKE PLACES
LIKE MYKOLAIV, THEY'RE AGAIN
MEETING RESISTANCE SO THEY'RE
SETTING UP DEFENSIVE POSITION
GOES.
MARIUPOL IS WHERE WE'RE WATCHING
THE HUMANITARIAN DISASTER AND
THE CORRIDOR THEY'RE TRYING TO
ESTABLISH.
MY BIG PICTURE I THINK TAKEAWAY
IS YOU WILL FIND THAT THE
UKRAINIANS WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE
PLACES IN THE NORTH.
I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED AT ALL,
WE WERE TALKING ABOUT BUCHA AND
WAR CRIMES TODAY.
THERE MIGHT BE HALF A DOZEN
BUCHAS WITHIN THE NEXT TWO WEEKS
WE DISCOVER.
SECONDLY BETWEEN KHARKIV AND
IZYUM IS WHERE THE BATTLE IS.
I THINK THE QUESTION IS CAN THEY
CONTINUE THE FIGHT, CONTINUE THE
COUNTEROFFENSIVE AND PUSH RUSSIA
BACK.
I WOULD ADD THERE'S LOTS OF
REPORTS OF RUSSIAN SOLDIERS
DESERTING, REFUSING TO FIGHT.
I WOULD BE SHOCKED IF THESE
UNITS HERE THAT FOUGHT IN AND
AROUND KYIV SO POORLY WHEN
REPOSITION, DISMANTLED AND PUT
IN OTHER UNITS WILL BE MOTIVATED
TO FIGHT AGAINST A UKRAINIAN
MILITARY ON THE UPSWING.
I'M NOT EVEN CONVINCED VLADIMIR
PUTIN, YOU KNOW, HIS STRATEGY
HAS GONE FROM DO I WANT TO LOSE
EVERYWHERE OR DO I WANT TO WIN