Speaker 1: Let's start today looking at some of the most important and key races coming
up now as we are just about eight weeks away from the 2022 midterm elections.
Now, we've looked at generally how things are shaping up, meaning in general, Democrats
have a likely shot at holding the Senate, and it is most likely that Republicans are
going to take the House of Representatives.
But to really understand kind of the texture of what's going on, we have to go beyond just
the top line numbers and really look at some specific races.
And unfortunately, while there is quite a bit of good news, if you look at the specific
races, some of the specific races that we've been covering there is I mean, I can't really
call it anything other than extraordinarily disturbing polling data showing that this
is a really messed up country.
I mean, there's sometimes, you know, we want to come up with the most sophisticated and
detailed and nuanced way of looking at a situation in the in the political world.
But it's just things are really screwed up because of some really messed up people.
And let's start with sort of like what's okay?
And then we'll get into what's not looking quite so good.
So all right.
In Pennsylvania, in the Senate, there's this very important race television, Dr. Mehmet
Oz versus the Democratic lieutenant governor, John Fetterman.
Fetterman is extraordinarily smart, extraordinarily qualified, has logical, consistent positions
on issues and is a great candidate.
On the other hand, you have television, Dr. Mehmet Oz, who has taken every side of all
issues masks, vaccines, quack cures, abortion, whatever, isn't even really from Pennsylvania,
although, you know, it's for Pennsylvania voters to decide whether that's something
that they care about.
If it.
I mean, listen, there would be candidates that are so good that if they moved to some
new state on day one and on day two said, I'm running, I would vote for them.
So it's up to Pennsylvanians to decide whether they care about that and is just completely
unqualified.
And the good news is that on average, Fetterman is leading polls by six and a half, as you
can see here.
The bad news is that Fetterman is only leading by six and a half.
So like when we look at this, is this good or is this bad?
Well, it would be worse if Ozz was leading, but this should be a 30 point blowout.
A 40 point blowout if the world made sense.
Another example also in Pennsylvania, this was a really important governor's race.
Doug Mastriano, a big lie proponent, an attendee of January 6th, a guy who we know if he is
governor in 2024 and a Democrat wins Pennsylvania, Mastriano will try to steal the Pennsylvania
electoral votes for the Republican disaster.
Absolute and total disaster.
Doug, I'm sorry.
Josh SHAPIRO is winning, but only by six.
By all reasonable standards, the world looks at this race and says, Wait a second, you've
got a completely uncontroversial, standard, reasonable law supporting due process, supporting
pro law and order Democrat.
And you've got Mastriano who just got caught wearing a Confederate uniform and Shapiro's
only up six.
What is wrong with Americans?
And that is the correct reaction.
Why is he only winning by six?
Look at Florida.
In Florida, we've got incumbent Republican Senator Marco Rubio being challenged by Democratic
Congresswoman Val Demings.
Rubio is just one of the he's one of the shakiest senators for sure.
And the one poll we have recently is from August.
If you go before that, you have to go all the way back to February.
So the one recent poll has Val Demings up four.
That's good.
But Rubio is a humiliation to the Senate.
He should be getting crushed and we have only an inkling that maybe Demings has a shot.
That's really disturbing.
And then we have the Arizona Senate, Blake Masters versus Mark Kelly.
Mark Kelly, the Democrat incumbent.
Smart guy, relatively progressive guy.
Not the most progressive former astronaut.
A thinker in in many ways.
And Blake Masters is just a cartoonish clown, and somehow Kelly is only up by six.
So it's good.
I mean, listen, it's good that Kelly is winning, but only by six.
That's really concerning now.
Then we get into the absolutely cuckoo for Cocoa Puffs stuff.
Take a look at some of these numbers.
In the Georgia Senate, you have the thoughtful, empathetic, intelligent incumbent Democratic
Senator Raphael Warnock being challenged by the Republican can.
That it former football player Herschel Walker, who cannot speak.
He cannot speak.
He cannot formulate a coherent opinion on any issue.
And in the average of recent polls, Warnock is leading by only one.
By only one.
Folks, Walker cannot speak and he cannot think.
And Raphael Warnock is winning by only one.
That is a Georgia dystopia.
Also in Georgia, you have this loony Republican Governor Brian Kemp, the incumbent, being
challenged by Stacey Abrams.
Abrams is brilliant.
Abrams has done more for voting expansion in Georgia over the last decade than anyone
I can think of.
And Kemp is winning by an average of five points there.
The world is backwards, truly backwards.
A couple others that are just really scary.
Or one more.
In Texas, you've got the incumbent governor, Greg Abbott, who has overseen a radical restriction
of access to abortion services, family planning.
He's involved in this absolutely loony isolation of the Texas power grid, and he supports it
and he defends it and he loves it.
And then he is being challenged by Beto O'Rourke, who I like quite a bit, not the most progressive,
but very strong on guns, very strong on women's rights.
And Abbott is leading by an average of about seven points.
Consider that Republicans are truly offering nothing right now.
Nothing.
Republicans offer obstructionism and we will own the libs and anger the libs.
They're not even offering bad policy.
They're offering no policy.
And yet in some of these places, the electorate, the constituents are so weaponized by disinformation,
they've fallen for whatever local version of MAGA that that is prevalent and many of
them are going to win.
So these numbers, these data, as some like to say, are as reflective of the sad state
of American politics as they are of the just sort of reality that usually when one party
takes the White House in the next midterm, that party doesn't do well.
That's a general structural thing.
Fine.
But some of these numbers, I mean, Warnock versus Walker, just the humiliation are reflective
of the weaponization of almost it's like a pride in not being about anything other than
just angering the left.
And that's actually sort of working for some of them.
So we'll continue looking at all these numbers later in the week.
I'll give you updated numbers on how is the house looking, how is the Senate looking,
and we will go from there.