More than two weeks have passed since the 7 October Hamas attack on Israel, but there
is no indication of an impending resolution of this conflict.
Israel has just launched its ground invasion.
Previously, the news related to the war was mostly dominated by news of Israel's deadly
campaign of airstrikes on the Gaza Strip and the humanitarian disaster unfolding in this
blockaded region.
In this video, we will talk about the events that led by to the Israeli ground assault
into Gaza.
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ISRAEL'S AIRSTRIKES Let's first look at what has been happening
on the ground in the past few days before we try to analyze what may happen next.
Ever since Hamas perpetrated a massacre in Israel on 7 October, the IDF has been relentlessly
bombing Gaza, killing more than 5,000 Palestinians, according to the Hamas-led Ministry of Healthcare
of Gaza.
There are horrific scenes of widespread death and destruction in Gaza.
On 13 October, the Israeli military called Gazans north of the Wadi Gaza to evacuate
south within 24 hours, which was heavily criticized by international human rights and humanitarian
organizations calling Israel to retract.
Associated Press reported that Hamas told people in Gaza to ignore the evacuation order,
arguing that nowhere in Gaza was safe from Israeli airstrikes.
Later that day, an explosion was reported on one of the supposed safe routes to the
south, which local sources claimed to kill 70 Palestinians fleeing.
Both sides blamed each other for this deadly war crime, which has become common in this
war.
Arguably, the most consequential event of the past ten days of the war between Israel
and Hamas was the rocket attack or the explosion in the parking lot of Al Ahli Arabi Baptist
Hospital in Gaza City on 17 October.
Hamas immediately blamed Israel for an airstrike, claiming it killed at least 500 civilians
sheltering in the hospital area.
The IDF stated that it would investigate the incident and later claimed that the explosion
was caused by a faulty rocket launched by the Islamic Jihad organization stationed in
Gaza.
Images from the scene of the incident showed a relatively small crater, several burned
cars and minor damage to the hospital.
Much has been said about this incident, as the sides continue blaming each other while
the open-source analysts reach different conclusions.
Most media immediately blamed Israel for the airstrike and reiterated the information about
the hundreds killed.
We do not have definitive data on this, but before this incident, many posts on social
media and statements of governments from all around the globe seemed to indicate a great
deal of sympathy with Israel due to the massacre of 7 October.
This was already changing when the IDF launched its campaign of airstrikes on Gaza, but the
rocket explosion in the hospital was by far the most significant blow to Israel's international
support since the start of the war.
In response to this incident, Arab leaders cancelled their summit with Biden to be held
in Jordan.
An airstrike on a UNWRA school on 17 October and on one of the buildings of the Greek Orthodox
Church of Saint Porphyrius on 19 October, killing at least 14 people in total, are among
other cases of destruction of civilian infrastructure in Gaza in recent days.
PROBLEMS OF THE GROUND ASSAULT ON GAZA Israel's defense minister, Gallant, told the
Knesset Committee on Foreign Affairs and Defense on 20 October that the war against Hamas will
be conducted in three phases.
The first phase is currently ongoing in the form of airstrikes "with the purpose of destroying
operatives and damaging infrastructure in order to defeat and destroy Hamas".
The second phase will consist of lower-intensity ground assaults to "eliminate pockets of resistance",
while the third will aim to create "a new security reality" in the Gaza strip, which
most probably means a ground assault and occupation.
Gallant admitted that the ground assault may take two or three months, but some military
commentators argue that it may actually take years to occupy Gaza and eradicate Hamas completely.
If the Israeli army conducts a ground assault, it would have to carry out most of the fighting
in the underground tunnel system of Hamas, the exact location and extent of which is
known only to the Hamas leadership and militants.
It is reported that some of the tunnels extend to Egypt.
In previous confrontations between Israel and Hamas, it was revealed that tunnels were
dug into Israel at one point.
Evidence from previously revealed tunnels demonstrates that their entrance points are
often found in civilian objects like houses and mosques in order to avoid the detection
of Israeli drones, which is one of the explanations behind the IDF use of bunker-buster munition
in civilian areas.
The Israeli Army has been training a special unit called Weasel since 2003 to fight in
underground tunnels, but the size of this unit is unknown, and it is unlikely that it
will be sufficient to take control of this underground city created by Hamas.
The IDF would probably have to deploy its regular units to the tunnels as well, which
are narrow and claustrophobic spaces full of treacherous surprises like booby traps.
Hamas militants know their tunnels better and will use them to their advantage against
Israeli soldiers, most of whom would probably be untrained to fight in such environments.
Underground tunnels negate the technological advantage of the Israeli soldiers over Hamas.
Israelis would need special equipment like oxygen tanks and extreme caution to proceed
in the tunnels.
An attempt to eliminate Hamas in its tunnels will by no means be a walk in the park.
It will likely cause heavy casualties for the IDF.
ISRAEL'S ENDGAME IN GAZA One of the common questions regarding the
Israeli ground assault on Gaza is the endgame.
The Netanyahu-led coalition government has not clearly indicated their vision of Gaza
after the ground assault.
Does Israel intend to administer Gaza for a while after occupying it?
Is Israel going to pass on the administration of Gaza to the Palestinian Authority?
Does it intend to annex Gaza?
Is the expulsion of the Palestinian population in the books?
None of it is entirely clear.
The 19 October Reuters article argues that "Israeli officials have said that they don't
have a clear idea for what a post-war future might look like."
The article notes that US State Secretary Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin
have urged Israel to determine its post-war strategy.
Reuters also quoted an unnamed regional security source, who said that, "Israel doesn't have
an endgame for Gaza.
Their strategy is to drop thousands of bombs, destroy everything and go in, but then what?
They have no exit strategy for the day after".
The Israeli minister Gideon Saar has told the local media that Gaza's territory must
shrink at the end of the war, as "whoever starts a war against Israel must lose territory."
The foreign minister Eli Cohen also implied that parts of Gaza would be annexed by Israel.
But even these statements do not really indicate anything about the future administration of
Gaza.
So far, the Israeli government has not articulated its post-war plan, and it opens the issue
up to all sorts of speculations.
INTERNATIONAL REACTION The US government continues expressing unequivocal
support for Israel's right to defend itself but has also started to urge restraint.
On the one hand, the US has deployed the USS Dwight Eisenhower Carrier Strike Group in
the Eastern Mediterranean to deter any third party from joining the conflict.
On the other hand, Americans have been advising Israel to wait for the release of all hostages
before launching a ground assault.
In his visit to Israel, Biden has called on the Israeli government not to be consumed
by rage and avoid the post-9/11 mistakes of America.
He also pledged 100 million dollars of humanitarian aid to Palestinians of Gaza and the West Bank
and called for the two-state resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The US has also struck an agreement with Israel on the passage of humanitarian aid to Gaza
from the Rafah checkpoint, along with securing the release of two Israeli-American hostages.
The American policy on this matter continues to focus on support to Israel and deterrence
of third parties from entering the war, but in recent days, the US government has also
been trying not to alienate the Arab and Muslim world too much.
Not the least due to the increasing public support for Palestine against the background
of Israeli airstrikes on Gaza.
The American deterrence policy primarily focuses on the threat coming from Iran and its proxies
in the Middle East.
In our previous video, we talked about the risk of the second front for Israel from Hezbollah
in the North.
Iran may also join the conflict in some form, particularly if the Israeli gets bogged down
in a protracted conflict in Gaza.
While Iranian boots on the ground are extremely unlikely, since Iran would most probably use
its Hezbollah proxies for that purpose, Iran could potentially launch missiles and drones
on Israel.
The IDF has been targeting the Aleppo and Damascus airports to address these threats.
The Assad regime heavily depends on Iran, which can use Syrian territory to launch strikes
on Israel.
Iran also uses Syrian territory to transfer weapons and equipment to Hezbollah in Lebanon.
So far, Iran's involvement has mostly consisted of public statements threatening Israel and
talking about its inevitable demise.
Like others, Tehran is closely following the situation in Gaza and will undoubtedly get
more active if a meaningful opportunity to get involved and influence the situation arises.
Iran wants to position itself as the champion of the Palestinian cause in the Muslim world
in order to boost its reputation in the Islamic world.
At this point, their biggest card in this game is Hezbollah.
On 16 October, Israel ordered the evacuation of its citizens on the border with Lebanon,
as the low-intensity conflict with Hezbollah was already going on.
Sides are regularly exchanging fire, which has already led to deaths on both sides.
The situation is relatively stable for now, but it may escalate if Hezbollah sees a chance
to do damage.
CONCLUSION A lot at this point depends on whether Israel
launches a ground assault on Gaza.
The Economist rightly noted that Israel's window of legitimacy in Gaza is shrinking.
Even the staunchest ally of Israel - the United States, has called for restraint and delay
of the invasion in the face of increasing global outcry against the Israeli airstrike
campaign in Gaza.
Furthermore, most of the mobilized soldiers in Israel are young people who are part of
the workforce.
The longer they are mobilized, the more the Israeli economy will feel the detrimental
effects of it.
The ground assault looked inevitable a couple of weeks ago, but the international reaction
may influence Israel to reconsider.
On 23 October, the IDF spokesperson stated that if Hamas releases all hostages and surrenders,
Israel won't launch a ground assault, but obviously, Hamas will not accept this ultimatum.
Indeed, while we were animating this episode, Israel started its ground invasion of the
northern portion of Gaza.
To the surprise of many pundits, on 27 October, the IDF launched its large-scale ground assault
on the towns of Beit Hanoun and Bureij.
On the same day, United Nations General Assembly overwhelmingly voted for de-escalation and
an immediate humanitarian ceasefire, it is hard to discern what is going on the ground,
as we have almost no information out of Gaza, but it is clear that Israel started the second
phase of its operation and we will talk about it more in the coming days.
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