There is no denying it…we are deep in bear market territory.
Most crypto’s have lost half of the value or even more in just a few months.
So the question is are we entering Max Payne territory?
Are we getting close to the bottom??
Well find out in about 10 minutes….because it’s time for Chico Crypto!!
Yes, the markets are getting hit and hit hard.
The total capitalization of crypto at its peak was over 3 trillion dollars.
As of yesterday that sunk to just above 1.6 trillion.
1.4 trillion dollars have been wiped clean of the crypto markets.
Now of course the leader of this downturn is the king asset Bitcoin.
Bitcoin has fallen by over 50 percent from it’s high set in early November of over
69k.
As of yesterday BTC dipped and fell to the 33k level before bouncing.
No one could have predicted BTC would be in the 30k range months ago…everyone thought
we would still be bullish, on our way to higher highs….not to these low…lows!
So the question is…how low, low will we go?
What price will be the Bitcoin bottom??
Well let’s begin with bottom case #1.
The 30k Bitcoin Bottom….of which many people believe will be the where bitcoin stops it’s
falling.
Now why is this such an important range to many people?
Well pulling out the price chart since January of 2021, we can see the last time Bitcoin
got above 60k and then subsequently crashed….that Bottom was at 30k and Bitcoin bounced hard
off of that level…which led us into our November peak of 69k.
Now, we can see in that last cycle, the daily close peak happened on the 13th of April…and
the bottom of which was just below 30k happened on July 20th.
This was a bear cycle of just over 3 months, 99 days to be exact.
Now the daily close peak for this most recent peak happened on November 8th…as of today,
we are 79 days since that peak.
Is it possible over the next 20 days we slowly bleed down to the 30k range??
Now back in July wasn’t the only time a 30k bounce happened…we can also see this
happened at the beginning of 2021 too.
January 8th BTC cracked 40k for the very 1st time, but a quick correction down to 30k by
the end of January with another big bounce.
Soo twice in a year, BTC had seen 30k, and each time that was hit it, it was followed
by a big relief bounce…
Is this going to happen once again?
Well many, many people think so.
I mean if you search by bitcoin 30k bottom on twitter, you can see the amount of technical
analyzers charting and predicting that this will be where the pain ends.
30k bottom analyzed with lines.
30k bottom analyzed with weekly RSI fractals.
Shoot even a 30k bottom scenario analyzed with a wyckoff distribution
Majority think 30k is where it ends….but what if it falls through and this historical
support is broken?
Well it’s most likely lights out…we are going into a longer than expected bear market.
Now I’m sure many of you don’t remember our last bull and bear cycle.
The end of 2017 Bitcoin peaked at about 20k, and over the next year deflated, and deflated
down.
It was a full year of pain, which was exacerbated by the series of relief rallies…4 of them
to be exact…until the market went sideways for 3 months…and finally the BIG DUMP at
the end of 2018.
Soooo is something similar going to happen this time around?
Are we going to deflate down until November of this year with relief rallies to keep us
all on the hook???
And will Bitcoin go down by a similar amount?
Well the peak was about 20k set in December.
From that high it went down to about $3200 a year later.
This was a loss of basically 84 percent.
For this cycle, BTC went to it’s high of 69 thousand.
If we apply a decrease of 84 percent that would basically give us a number of 11 thousands
dollars.
Woah!!!
Bitcoin crashing back down to 11 grand in a year??
Is that freaking possible??
Well this has happened before in Bitcoin’s history.
The cycle before 2017…
Bitcoin rallied in 2013 and hit it’s peak once again at the end of the year.
This was about 1200 dollars..
Over the next year, BTC deflated down, once again with some relief rallies sprinkled in.
By January 2015, just over a year later, Bitcoin hit its bottom of about 200 dollars
From 1200 down to 200 dollars was a loss of just over 83 percent.
History is telling us that it is possible to hit 11k, if 69k was the Bitcoin top for
this cycle.
Although…history tells us that also won’t happen.
Bitcoin has never gone below a cycle's peak, the cycle after.
Remember about 1200 was the peak in 2013…the next cycle's bottom wasn’t near 1200, but
was 3200 in 2018.
The cycle before this?
BTC hit a peak of nearly 30 dollars in June of 2011…the bottom from the next cycle?
About 200 dollars in January of 2015.
BTC never goes below a previous cycles peak….2017’s peak was 20k, history is telling us this cycle
we won’t go below…
Going below 20k not likely according to history….But is it possible we touch 20k?
Well if we do eventually break 30k…20k is definitely in play as that is the previous
cycle’s all time high, and throughout this cycle it provided a support area.
A Crash down to this level would be a drop of 70 percent from the all-time high…
Now the reason this level could be likely is regarding the Bitcoin miners.
Even at a 20k Bitcoin and with the current difficulty and hashrate, the miners would
still be profitable at 20k BTC..but if it falls below that.
They become unprofitable.
This fact, this reason will create big resistance at that level if it comes down to it…
But if this happens, 20k BTC and a 70 percent crash…
what would happen to some of the other assets?
Like Ethereum and Altcoins???
Well, the crash between these assets will be magnified…I would expect Ethereum to
crash by 80 to 85 percent…while Altcoins, a majority of them, would crash by 90 to 99
percent.
An 80 percent crash for Ethereum would put it at about 1000 dollars, 85 percent would
be about 750 dollars.
Altcoins down by 90 to 99 percent would mean things like Cardano at 20 cents, Polkadot
and Chainlink at 6 bucks, Solana below 20 dollars…and smaller caps getting rekt even
worse…
This could be the coming opportunity of a lifetime or that opportunity has already happened!
Because there is the last case….
33k was the bottom!!
Bitcoin yesterday, bounced off of 33k pretty significantly and pumped all the way back
up to 36k!!
So is this the bottom or is this just another PUMP fakeout??
A dead kitty bounce???
Well like I showed in yesterday’s video about the everything bubble, there is some
very very interesting things going on this week….
We have the FED’s FOMC meeting where they could surprise the markets with increased
tapering, which could speed up the timeline to interest rate hikes.
If the global markets are feeling that this is going to be the case, and it is the case…
we could definitely see another drop before this meeting, and if it’s announced…yeah
we will drop once again…
But it’s not only that…some of the BIG tech giants are set to announce and report
their earnings this week.
This includes Apple, Microsoft, Tesla, and Intel.
If they fall below expectations, like Netflix did last week…once again we could see another
drop…
And then finally in the global climate…there is a chance of rising global tensions.
Russia is threatening to invade Ukraine…and if they do…the global markets will SINK
as that could be the cause and ignition for the next world war….
So my friends…as much as we wish Bitcoin was uncorrelated from the traditional financial
world….it isn’t.
It has been ingrained with it, as wall st.
has sunk their teeth…if we are going into an everything bubble pop type situation…Bitcoin
and crypto assets won’t be immune…Bitcoin would sink, and sink even below 20k, possibly
even below 10k…but like a phoenix, it would rise from the ashes…finally fulfilling it’s
destiny as the global reserve currency…
Cheers viewers I’ll see you next time!