SO IT’S A BALANCING ACT.
BUT I DON’T TWAG THINKACTUALLY T
A DEAL THAT’S THAT FAR AWAY.
>> SO PRESIDENT BIDEN IS USING
LAST WEEK’S LACKLUSTER JOBS
REPORT AS EVIDENCE TO HELP PASS
HIS $2.3 TRILLION INFRASTRUCTURE
PLAN.
THE U.S. ECONOMY GAINED 266,000
JOBS IN APRIL, FAR SHORT OF THE
MORE THAN 1 MILLION ECONOMIC
ANALYSTS PREDICTED.
HERE WAS THE PRESIDENT’S
RESPONSE.
>> TODAY’S REPORT IS REBUTTAL
FOR THE LOOSE TALK THAT
AMERICANS JUST DON’T WANT TO
WORK.
I KNOW SOME EMPLOYERS ARE HAVING
TROUBLE FILLING JOBS, BUT WHAT
THIS REPORT SHOWS IS THAT
THERE’S A MUCH BIGGER PROBLEM.
IT’S THAT OUR ECONOMY STILL HAS
8 MILLION FEWER IS JOBS THAN
WHEN THIS ECONOMY STARTED.
THE DATA SHOWS THAT MORE
WORKERS, MORE WORKERS ARE
LOOKING FOR JOBS AND MANY CAN’T
FIND THEM.
>> AFTER THE JOBS REPORT, THE
CHAMBER OF COMMERCE CALLED FOR
AN END TO THE EXTRA $300 IN
FEDERAL UNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS,
SAYING IT’S KEEPING PEOPLE FROM
RETURNING TO WORK.
TREASURY SECRETARY JANET YELLEN
REFUTED THAT IDEA.
IT’S INTERESTING, JOE, BECAUSE
THERE SEEMS TO BE A REAL
OPPORTUNITY FOR A LOT OF PEOPLE
TO WORK AND YET THEY’RE NOT
COMING OUT.
THOSE NUMBERS WERE STUNNING.
>> AND YOU AND I HAVE HEARD FROM
PEOPLE, STEVE RATTNER, I DON’T
KNOW ABOUT YOU, BUT WE’VE HEARD
FROM -- I MEAN, I’VE HEARD FROM
A COUPLE OF VERY, VERY LIBERAL
DEMOCRATS WHO OWN RESTAURANTS
WHO HAVE TOLD ME, I JUST CAN’T
GET WORKERS.
I VOTED FOR BIDEN, AND YES, I’M
GLAD THE RELIEF PACKAGE PASSED,
BUT, YOU KNOW, THE $1,400, THE
$300 SUPPLEMENTAL UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE, I CAN’T GET WORKERS
TO COME IN.
AND THIS IS SOMETHING WE EVEN
HEARD LAST SUMMER WITH A MORE
MODEST RELIEF PACKAGE FROM LAST SUMMER, WHERE WE HAD PEOPLE IN
SUMMER, WHERE WE HAD PEOPLE IN
THE TRAVEL AND LEISURE AND
HOSPITALITY AREAS OF THE ECONOMY
COULD NOT GET WORKERS IN,
BECAUSE THEY HAD RECEIVED
FEDERAL BENEFITS.
AND AGAIN, I KNOW THIS ISN’T THE
CASE WITH EVERYBODY THAT
RECEIVES THOSE BENEFITS.
AND I’M GLAD PEOPLE ARE
RECEIVING THOSE BENEFITS.
BUT STEVE, WE HAVEN’T TALKED
ABOUT THIS.
AND THIS IS IMPACTING DEMOCRATIC
EMPLOYERS AS MUCH AS IT’S
IMPACTING REPUBLICAN EMPLOYERS.
>> THAT’S RIGHT, JOE.
SO LET ME TAKE YOU THROUGH A FEW
CHARTS SO SORT OF LAY OUT WHAT
THE FRIDAY JOBS REPORT TELLS US
AND WHAT WE’VE LEARNED IN
GENERAL.
IT’S A COMPLICATED ISSUE, AND
THE PRESIDENT IS RIGHT, THERE
ARE ISSUES ON THE DEMAND SIDE
FOR LABOR, THERE ARE ISSUES
ABOUT SUPPLY CHAIN SHORTAGES,
BUT THERE ARE ALSO ISSUES ABOUT
THE SUPPLY OF LABOR.
WHAT THIS CHART SHOWS, COMPARES
IS EMPLOYERS LOOKING FOR PEOPLE
TO WORK VERSUS PEOPLE ACTUALLY
APPLYING TO WORK.
THE LIGHT BLUE LINE ARE JOB
OPENINGS, WHICH AS YOU CAN SEE,
HAVE RECOVERED NICELY FROM THE
DOWNTURN AND IN FACT HAVE SHOT
UP THERE.
THE NUMBER OF JOB OPENINGS IN
THIS COUNTRY IS NOW HIGHER THAN
IT WAS BEFORE THE PANDEMIC
STRUCK.
IN OTHER WORDS, THE NUMBER OF
JOBS THAT ARE AVAILABLE IS
HIGHER THAN IT WAS BEFORE.
BUT THE NUMBER OF PEOPLE
APPLYING FOR JOBS HAS ACTUALLY
STAYED VERY DEPRESSED THROUGHOUT
THIS --
>> LET ME STOP YOU RIGHT THERE,
STEVE.
SO TELL ME, I MEAN, THAT IS A
MASSIVE GAP.
I DON’T KNOW THAT I’VE EVER SEEN
A GAP LIKE THAT, WHERE THE JOB
OPENINGS ARE THAT MUCH HIGHER
THAN THE APPLICATIONS FOR JOBS.
WHY -- FIRST OF ALL, HAVE YOU
EVER SEEN A MASSIVE GAP THAT
BIG?
AND WHY IS IT THAT BIG?
AND WHY DO WE HAVE MORE JOB
OPENINGS NOW THAN WE HAD EVEN
BEFORE THE OUTBREAK OF COVID?
>> WE HAVE MORE JOB OPENINGS NOW
THAN WE HAD BEFORE COVID BECAUSE
WE HAVE 8 MILLION FEWER JOBS AND
EMPLOYERS ARE TRYING TO FILL A
LOT OF THOSE JOBS, SO THERE ARE
A LOT OF OPENINGS AS THEY LOOK
FOR PEOPLE TO FILL THEM.
AND YOU’VE HAD COMPANIES LIKE
UBER AND DOMINO’S AND PILGRIM’S
POULTRY, A BIG CHICKEN PROCESSOR
ALL SAYING, WE CAN’T FIND ENOUGH
WORKERS, AS YOU JUST SAY IN YOUR
OPENING.
THE NATIONAL FEDERATION OF
INDEPENDENT BUSINESS SAID THAT
44% OF ITS MEMBERS IS HAVING
TROUBLE FILLING JOBS, WHICH IS
THE HIGHEST NUMBER THEY’VE EVER
SEEN.
BUT TO TALK ABOUT THE REASONS,
LET’S FIRST TALK ABOUT PEOPLE
DROPPING OUT OF THE LABOR FORCE.
SO WHAT’S HAPPENED, IF WE CAN GO
TO THE NEXT CHART, WHAT’S
HAPPENED DURING THE PANDEMIC,
WHICH IS NORMAL, IS THAT WHEN
JOBLESSNESS HITS, A LOT OF
PEOPLE DROP OUT OF THE LABOR
FORCE.
YOU CAN SEE THE DOTTED BLACK
LINE IS THE OVERALL LABOR FORCE.
AND YOU CAN ALSO SEE, IT WAS
ALSO WORSE AMONG BLACKS AND
HISPANICS AND ALSO WOMEN,
BECAUSE THEY OCCUPY MANY OF THE
JOBS THAT WERE ELIMINATED DURING
THE PANDEMIC, RESTAURANT
WORKERS, HOTEL WORKERS, AND
THINGS LIKE THAT.
AND YOU CAN SEE THAT THE LABOR
PARTICIPATION RATE HAS REALLY
NOT COME BACK VERY FAR, VERY
FAST.
THERE ARE NOW 2 MILLION MORE
WOMEN WHO HAVE DROPPED OUT OF
THE LABOR FORCE AND 1.5 MILLION
MEN WHO HAVE DROPPED OUT OF THE
LABOR FORCE.
THE LABOR FORCE AS A WHOLE IS
3.5 MILLION PEOPLE, SMALLER THAN
IT WAS BEFORE THE PANDEMIC.
THESE ARE NOT PEOPLE WHO DROPPED
OUT TO COLLECT UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE, THEY’RE NOT
COLLECTING UNEMPLOYMENT
INSURANCE.
WE’LL GET TO THAT IN ONE SECOND.
THESE ARE PEOPLE WHO DROPPED OUT
MAYBE BECAUSE THEY’RE BABY
BOOMERS LIKE ME AND THEY DECIDED
THEY’D WORK LONG ENOUGH, IT’S
TIME TO CALL IT A DAY.
THERE MAY BE PEOPLE WHO HAVE
KIDS AT HOME AND THEY HAVE CHILD
CARE PROBLEMS AND THEY CAN’T
WORK, SO THEY’RE NOT OUT THERE
LOOKING TO WORK.
AND THE CONSEQUENCES HAVE BEEN
VERY HIGH.
WE HAVE BLACK UNEMPLOYMENT UP TO
9.7%, COMPARED TO 3.6% BEFORE
THE PANDEMIC.
BUT PART OF IT IS, AS I SAID,
THERE’S A SUPPLY OF LABOR
PROBLEM IN TERMS OF PEOPLE OUT
OF THE LABOR FORCE, NOT BECAUSE
OF UNEMPLOYMENT, BUT SIMPLY
BECAUSE FOR ONE REASON OR
ANOTHER, THEY DON’T WANT TO
WORK.
WE CAN TURN NOW TO THE NEXT
CHART AND GET RIGHT TO YOUR
POINT, JOE, ABOUT THE EFFECTS OF
UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE ON WORK.
NOW, WE DON’T KNOW.
THERE’S NO WAY TO STUDY WHO’S
ACTUALLY NOT WORKING BECAUSE OF
THE UNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE AND
SO FORTH, BUT WHAT WE CAN LOOK
AT IS THE COMPARISON BETWEEN
WHAT A WORKER GETS ON
UNEMPLOYMENT VERSUS WHAT A
WORKER GETS BY WORKING.
THIS HAPPENS TO BE FOR THE STATE
OF PENNSYLVANIA, BECAUSE THESE
BENEFITS ARE ALL CALCULATED
STATE BY STATE.
AND SO WHAT YOU CAN SEE ON THE
LEFT IS FOR A MINIMUM WAGE
WORKER AND PENNSYLVANIA DOESN’T
HAVE A SPECIAL -- ITS OWN
MINIMUM WAGE, SO IT USES THE
$7.25 FEDERAL, A WORKER WHO WAS
EARNING THE MINIMUM WAGE WOULD
COLLECT $11.23 PER HOUR ON
UNEMPLOYMENT.
AND THEN YOU CAN SEE A NUMBER OF
PROFESSIONS ACROSS HERE, WHERE
THE AMOUNT OF UNEMPLOYMENT IS
EITHER LARGER THAN THE MEDIAN
WAGE OR VERY CLOSE TO IT.
EVERYTHING FROM DISH WASHERS,
HOTEL CLERKS, PRESCHOOL TEACHES,
AND SO FORTH.
AND ON THE RIGHT, YOU CAN SEE
THE MEDIAN WAGE IN PENNSYLVANIA
OF $20.08 AN HOUR IS NOT THAT
FAR ABOVE THE $17.78 AN HOUR
THAT YOU GET ON UNEMPLOYMENT.
I WOULD ALSO MENTION IN THIS
CONTEXT THAT WE HAVE SENT OUT A
LOT OF STIMULUS CHECKS, AND THAT
HAS ALSO PUT MONEY IN PEOPLE’S
POKTS
POCKETS AND MAY LEAD THEM TO
FEEL, I DON’T REALLY NEED TO GO
BACK TO WORK RIGHT AT THIS
MOMENT.
I DON’T WANT TO OVERSTATE THIS
OR CLAIM THIS IS THE ENTIRE
ANSWER TO THE ISSUE OF HOW MANY
JOBS ARE OUT THERE, BUT IT IS A
MUCH-DEBATED SUBJECT AMONG
ECONOMISTS AND IT’S VERY HARD TO
SEE HOW IT DOESN’T PLAY SOME
ROLE IN THE OVERALL PICTURE THAT
WE’RE LOOKING AT.
>> RIGHT.
IT CERTAINLY PLAYS SOME ROLE.
YOU DON’T KNOW -- WE WON’T KNOW
PROBABLY FOR ANOTHER YEAR OR SO
WHEN WE GET ALL THE RESEARCH IN.
CERTAINLY, THERE ARE SEVERAL
PEOPLE IN THE WORKFORCE, A LOT
OF PEOPLE IN THE WORKFORCE WHO
PROBABLY DON’T WANT TO GO BACK
UNTIL EITHER THEY’RE VACCINATED
OR THEIR CHILDREN ARE VACCINATED
OR THEY FEEL SAFER GOING BACK
INTO THE WORKFORCE. BUT ALL OF THAT BEING SAID,
BUT ALL OF THAT BEING SAID,
JONATHAN LEMIRE, THIS IS AN
ISSUE THAT’S BEEN TALKED ABOUT
AMONG NOT JUST REPUBLICANS BUT
DEMOCRATS AND DEMOCRATIC
ECONOMISTS.
I WANT TO PUT THIS CHART BACK
UP.
AND WHILE PEOPLE IN THE MEDIA
MAY NOT BE TALKING ABOUT THIS
MUCH, BECAUSE IT’S VERY EASY TO
DRAW THE WRONG CONCLUSIONS OUT
OF HAVING A TRUTHFUL
CONVERSATION ABOUT THIS, LIKE
PEOPLE ARE TOO, YOU KNOW, PEOPLE
MIGHT LISTEN TO AN ARGUMENT
ABOUT THIS AND THINK, OH, YOU
THINK PEOPLE ARE TOO LAZY TO
STAY AT HOME.
NO, WHAT A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE
TALKING ABOUT AND ECONOMISTS ARE
TALKING ABOUT ARE ECONOMIC
INCENTIVES.
WHILE PEOPLE IN THE MEDIA DON’T
WANT TO TALK ABOUT THIS.
LOOK AT THE FIRST ONE, TWO,
THREE, FOUR CATEGORIES THERE.
AND I GUARANTEE YOU REPUBLICANS
WILL HAVE CHART LIKE THIS,
THEY’LL CIRCLE IT AND THEY’LL
SAY JOE BIDEN MADE IT EASIER TO
STAY HOME AND COLLECT
UNEMPLOYMENT THAN TO GO OUT AND
WORK.
AND THAT’S WHAT DEMOCRATS NEED
TO PREPARE THEMSELVES FOR IN
2022.
SO WHAT IS THE WHITE HOUSE SPOPS
RESPONSE TO THAT?
I KNOW THEY’RE ON TOP OF THIS.
I’VE TALKED TO YOU AND I KNOW
THEY’RE CONCERNED ABOUT IT.
WHAT ARE THEY SAYING?
>> WELL, CERTAINLY FRIDAY WHEN
THE JOBS REPORT CAME OUT, THE
WHITE HOUSE AND MOST ECONOMIC
ANALYSTS WERE BLINDSIDED BY IT.
THERE WAS A EXPECTATION OF
ADDING LIKE A MILLION JOBS.
AND OF COURSE, GOT NOWHERE NEAR
THAT.
AND WE HEARD FROM THE PRESIDENT
ON FRIDAY.
HE WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE THE
CASE THAT THIS SHOWS THE NEED
MORE MORE FEDERAL INTERVENTION.
THAT PEOPLE AREN’T SAFE.
AND THEY’RE TAKING -- PEOPLE
AREN’T FEELING COMFORTABLE TO GO
BACK TO WORK.
AND THEY NEED SOME HELP.
AN EXAMPLE, THEY POINT TO
SOMETHING LIKE CHILD CARE, WHERE
FOR SO MANY AMERICANS, WORKING
PARENTS, PARTICULARLY MOTHERS,
UNABLE TO JOIN THE LABOR FORCE
FOR THE LAST YEAR OR SO, BECAUSE
THEY COULDN’T SEND THEIR CHILD
TO CHILD CARE, BECAUSE THEY WERE
FEARFUL OF THE VIRUS, OR IT WAS
CLOSED, OR THEY COULDN’T AFFORD.
IT NOW THEY’RE SAYING WITH THE
JOBS INFRASTRUCTURE, THAT
THERE’LL BE MONEY FOR THAT.
THAT THERE’LL BE CHILD CARE
FUNDING THAT WILL ALLOW
AMERICANS TO SEND THEIR CHILDREN
TO A FACILITY THAT WILL THEN
ALLOW THEM TO GO BACK TO WORK.
THIS IS SOMETHING THEY RECOGNIZE
MAKES THEIR SELL A LITTLE BIT
HARDER.
REPUBLICANS SPENT THE WEEKEND
SHARPENING THEIR WEEKEND ABOUT
THIS, SAYING THAT THE AID IS TOO
GREAT.
THERE’S NO NEED FOR ANOTHER BIG
PACKAGE LIKE THIS.
IT’S TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SPENDING.
THIS WILL BE A VITAL WEEK.
AND IT’S ALL CONNECTED.
WE’VE TALKED ABOUT, WE
SHORTHANDED THE INFRASTRUCTURE
PLAN FROM THE PRESIDENT, BUT
IT’S MUCH, MUCH BIGGER THAN
THAT.
A RESHAPING OF HOW THE
GOVERNMENT INTERACTS WITH THE
CITIZENS.
IT’S INFRASTRUCTURE, IT’S JOBS,
IT IS THAT HUMAN CHILD AND
FAMILY CARE.
AND THIS IS THE WEEK WHERE THE
WHITE HOUSE WILL HAVE A COUPLE
OF VERY KEY MEETINGS ON IT.
BIDEN’S FIRST MEETING WITH THE
BIG FOUR, WHICH INCLUDES THE
REPUBLICAN LEADERSHIP.
HIS FIRST FACE-TO-FACE WITH
MITCH McCONNELL AND KEVIN
McCARTHY SINCE TAKING OFFICE,
THAT’S WEDNESDAY.
AND ON THURSDAY WITH THAT GROUP
OF REPUBLICAN SENATORS, BUT THEY
FEEL LIKE IF THERE IS ANY HOPE
FOR A COMPROMISE TO GET AT LEAST
PART OF THIS DONE, THE HARD
ANGLE, ASPECT OF THE DEAL,
BRIDGES, ROAD, HIGHWAYS, FWLD