STEPH. >> ALL RIGHT.
JEFF BENNETT, THANK YOU SO MUCH.
LET’S BE CLEAR ABOUT ONE POINT.
THERE ARE REAL REASONS TO BE
CONCERNED ABOUT A POSSIBLE
RECESSION.
RECESSION. REMEMBER, A RECESSION IS NOT A
CRISIS.
CRISIS. A RECESSION IS NORMAL.
BUT A SITTING PRESIDENT DOESN’T
NECESSARILY WANT TO BE RUNNING
FOR RE-ELECTION DURING A
RECESSION.
RECESSION. SO LET’S LOOK AT ONE OF THOSE
REASONS.
REASONS. MORE THAN 30 CENTRAL BANKS
AROUND THE WORLD HAVE CUT
INTEREST RATES THIS YEAR.
WHY DOES THAT MATTER?
THE LAST TIME WE SAW THAT MANY
RATE CUTS WORLDWIDE, WAS DURING
THE FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 2008.
WE CURRENTLY HAVE NINE COUNTRIES
POTENTIALLY FACING RECESSION
RIGHT NOW.
RIGHT NOW. IN A GLOBAL ECONOMY THAT’S AN
ISSUE.
ISSUE. OUR OWN FEDERAL RESERVE LOWERED
ITS RATE BY .25% LAST MONTH TO
TRY AND EXTEND ECONOMIC GROWTH
HERE AT HOME DESPITE THE SLOW
GROWTH WORLDWIDE AND THE HARM
DONE BY THE PRESIDENT’S TRADE
WAR.
WAR. BUT TYPICALLY THE FED CUTS RATES
AS A LAST RESORT WHEN THE
ECONOMY IS IN MUCH WORSE SHAPE
THAN IT APPEARS TO BE RIGHT NOW.
AND USING RATE CUTS NOW COULD
MEAN THAT THEY’RE NOT AVAILABLE
WHEN WE REALLY NEED THEM.
IT COULD ALSO MEAN THAT THE
ECONOMY WILL BE SIMPLY IMMUNE TO
THEIR IMPACT.
THEIR IMPACT. AND, YET, THE WHITE HOUSE
CONTINUES TO CALL FOR THE FED TO
LOWER RATES EVEN FURTHER.
BUT THAT MESSAGE COULD BE DOING
MORE HARM THAN GOOD.
U.S. CONSUMER SENTIMENT ACTUALLY
FELL IN AUGUST AND ACCORDING TO
THE DIRECTOR OF THE SURVEY THE
CUT ACTUALLY MADE PEOPLE MORE
WORRIED ABOUT A POSSIBLE
RECESSION.
RECESSION. PEOPLE ARE CONFUSED.
I HAVE A GREAT GROUP HERE WITH
ME TO HELP CLEAR SOME OF THE
CONFUSION UP.
CONFUSION UP. PHIL RUCKER WHITE HOUSE BUREAU
CHIEF FOR "THE WASHINGTON POST,"
NEIL IRWIN SENIOR ECONOMICS
CORRESPONDENT FOR THE "NEW YORK
TIMES" AND DEMOCRATIC
CONGRESSWOMAN FROM MY HOME STATE
OF NEW JERSEY.
CONGRESSWOMAN, I TURN TO YOU
FIRST.
FIRST. THE PRESIDENT KNOWS THE ECONOMY
IS HIS TICKET TO RE-ELECTION.
IS THERE ANY REASON TO BELIEVE
HE IS GOING TO GIVE AMERICANS A
MORE ACCURATE PICTURE OF THE
ECONOMY AND DO SOMETHING ABOUT
IT?
IT? IF YOU ARE RUNNING FOR OFFICE,
IF YOU ARE A PRIVATE CITIZEN
WHICH HE WAS LAST TIME AROUND,
YOU CAN PAINT WHATEVER PICTURE
YOU WANT TO HELP YOURSELF GET
RE-ELECTED BUT HE IS CURRENTLY
GOVERNING OUR NATION INTERFACING
WITH WORLD LEADERS EVERY DAY.
IF HE’S NOT BEING HONEST ABOUT
THE STATE THAT WE’RE IN WHAT
DOES THAT DO TO US?
>> I THINK MANY AMERICANS KNOW
WHAT STATE WE’RE IN.
IN MY HOME STATE NEW JERSEY AS
YOU WELL KNOW MANY OF THE
ECONOMIC MOVES BY THIS
ADMINISTRATION HAVE BEEN
INCREDIBLY HARMFUL TO US.
NEW JERSEY WAS WORST HIT BY THE
TAX REFORM THAN ANY OTHER STATE
IN THE NATION.
THE STATE AND LOCAL TAX
DEDUCTION CAP HAS BEEN HURTING
TEACHERS AND COPS THROUGHOUT MY
DISTRICT.
DISTRICT. WE SEE THE FAILURE TO INVEST IN
OUR INFRASTRUCTURE FURTHER
HARMING OUR DISTRICT AND OUR
STATE, A STATE THAT BY THE WAY
IS PART OF THE 20% OF THE
AMERICAN ECONOMY.
AMERICAN ECONOMY. SO, YOU KNOW, THESE HITS, THESE
WERE SELF-INFLICTED WOUNDS.
AND THE PRESIDENT FURTHERMORE
CONTINUES TO DO THAT IN THE
GLOBAL ECONOMY.
GLOBAL ECONOMY. I DON’T THINK PEOPLE QUITE
UNDERSTAND WHAT THE PLAN IS FOR
THESE CHINESE TARIFFS.
THIS TARIFF WAR HAS BEEN REALLY
HARD FOR CORPORATIONS IN MY
DISTRICT WHO ARE TRYING HARD TO
PLAN FOR THE NEXT FIVE YEARS,
THE NEXT TEN YEARS, THE NEXT 15
YEARS, AND ARE FINDING
THEMSELVES UNABLE TO DO SO AND
THE PRESIDENT SAYS, WELL, HE’S
NOT GOING TO DO THE TARIFF WAR
UNTIL AFTER CHRISTMAS BECAUSE HE
KNOWS IT’S ANOTHER TAX ON
CONSUMERS.
CONSUMERS. AND SO WE SEE HIM HOLDING OFF
UNTIL AFTER CHRISTMAS FOR SOME
OF THIS TRADE WAR WHICH MAKES IT
SEEM LIKE IT’S JUST SOME
PARTISAN MANEUVERING AND NOT
REALLY HELPFUL TO OUR ECONOMY.
>> PHIL, I WANT TO PLAY PART OF
YOUR EXCHANGE WITH THE PRESIDENT
YESTERDAY WHILE HE WAS IN NEW
JERSEY TALKING ABOUT HOW THE
AMERICAN PEOPLE ARE SO HAPPY AND
SPENDING WHEN WE KNOW FROM THE
CONGRESSWOMAN PEOPLE IN NEW
JERSEY DID NOT BENEFIT.
TAKE A LOOK.
>> A LOT OF ECONOMISTS SAY YOU
SHOULD BE PREPARING FOR A
RECESSION, THAT NO PRESIDENT IS
IMMUNE TO RECESSION AND IT IS
NOW --
NOW -- >> PHIL, HONESTLY I’M PREPARED
FOR EVERYTHING.
FOR EVERYTHING. I DON’T THINK WE’RE HAVING A
RECESSION.
RECESSION. WE ARE DOING TREMENDOUSLY WELL.
OUR CONSUMERS ARE RICH.
I GAVE A TREMENDOUS TAX CUT AND
THEY’RE LOADED UP WITH MONEY.
THEY’RE BUYING.
THEY’RE BUYING. I SAW THE WALMART NUMBERS.
THEY WERE THROUGH THE ROOF JUST
TWO DAYS AGO.
THAT’S BETTER THAN ANY POLL,
BETTER THAN ANY ECONOMIST.
AND MOST ECONOMISTS ACTUALLY
SAY, PHIL, THAT WE’RE NOT GOING
TO HAVE A RECESSION.
MOST OF THEM ARE SAYING WE’RE
NOT GOING TO HAVE A RECESSION.
>> SO THE PRESIDENT SAID WALMART
NUMBERS WERE THROUGH THE ROOF.
HE DIDN’T SAY THE DAY BEFORE
THAT MACY’S NUMBERS WERE IN THE
TOILET.
TOILET. WHEN HE SAYS CONSUMERS ARE FLUSH
WITH CASH AND SPENDING, IT
WASN’T A TAX CUT FOR THE AVERAGE
AMERICAN.
AMERICAN. TWA IS A
TWA IS A IT WAS A CORPORATE TAX CUT.
WHAT IS YOUR TAKEAWAY FROM WHAT
HE SAID?
HE SAID? >> WHAT JUST SAID IS EXACTLY
RIGHT.
RIGHT. WHAT TRUMP IS TRYING TO DO IS
PROJECT CONFIDENCE TO THE
AMERICAN PEOPLE THAT THERE’S NOT
GOING TO BE A RECESSION AND THAT
HE A ESGOT EVERYTHING UNDER
CONTROL.
CONTROL. BUT THAT FLIES IN THE FACE OF
THE DATA WE’RE SEEING AND THE
INDICATORS AND THE BIG YELLOW
FLAGS ESPECIALLY LAST WEEK.
YOU KNOW, NO PRESIDENT IS IMMUNE
FROM A RECESSION.
PRESIDENT TRUMP IS NOT IMMUNE
FROM A RECESSION.
YOU KNOW, TALKING TO ECONOMISTS
I INTERVIEWED LARRY SUMMERS LAST
WEEK THE FORMER TREASURY
SECRETARY AND ECONOMIC ADVISER
WHO HELPED GUIDE THE OBAMA
ADMINISTRATION OUT OF THE GREAT
RECESSION AND HE SAID AIT WAS
EFFECTIVELY MALPRACTICE FOR THIS
GOVERNMENT NOT TO BE GETTING
READY FOR A RECESSION IF ONE
WERE TO COME.
>> YOU WROTE AN EXCELLENT PIECE
ABOUT HOW A RECESSION COULD
HAPPEN AND, AGAIN, IT WOULD BE
NORMAL.
NORMAL. WE HAVE BEEN IN A TEN-YEAR
ECONOMIC EXPANSION, SO A
RECESSION IS PAR FOR THE COURSE.
AND THE PRESIDENT HAS ALREADY
GIVEN A MASSIVE CORPORATE TAX
CUT AND, STILL, WITH GDP ONLY
2.1% THAT IS FAR BELOW HIS 3%
PROJECTION THOUGH HE PROJECTED
4%, 5%, 6%.
AFTER HEARING THE PRESIDENT AND
HIS ADVISERS SAYING, I DON’T SEE
A RECESSION ANYWHERE, DO YOU
BELIEVE THEY’RE RECOGNIZING THE
RISKS THAT AT LEAST YOU AND MANY
OTHERS HAVE LAID OUT?
>> NO.
>> NO. THEY SEEM TO BE KIND OF STICKING
THEIR FINGERS IN THEIR EARS AND
PRETENDING THESE SIGNS AREN’T
OUT THERE.
OUT THERE. WE’VE SEEN THIS BEFORE.
IT DOESN’T HAVE TO BE A
RECESSION FOR THIS TO BE A VERY
DANGEROUS MOMENT FOR THE
ECONOMY.
ECONOMY. IN LATE 2015 EARLY 2016 THERE
WAS SOMETHING VERY SIMILAR TO
THIS, AN INDUSTRIAL SLOWDOWN
CAUSED BY OVERSEAS FORCES
ESPECIALLY CHINA AND MAY HAVE
HELPED TRUMP GET ELECTED AND
COST HILLARY CLINTON THE WHITE
HOUSE.
HOUSE. YOU COULD HAVE SOMETHING THAT
DOESN’T BECOME A TECHNICAL
RECESSION BUT DOES A LOT OF
DAMAGE IN THE HEARTLAND OF THE
U.S.
U.S. >> CAN DEMOCRATS, CONGRESSWOMAN
ACTUALLY CAPITALIZE ON THIS?
I WANT TO SHARE WHAT THE
PRESIDENT SAID AT A RALLY LAST
WEEK.
WEEK. >> THE BOTTOM LINE IS I KNOW YOU
LIKE ME AND THIS ROOM IS A LOVE
FEST.
FEST. I KNOW THAT.
BUT YOU HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO
VOTE FOR ME BECAUSE YOUR 401(K)s
DOWN THE TUBES, EVERYTHING DOWN
THE TUBES, SO WHETHER YOU LOVE
ME OR HATE ME YOU GOT TO VOTE
FOR ME.
FOR ME. >> THIS THE ARGUMENT HE KEEPS
MAKING.
MAKING. THE NEW "WALL STREET JOURNAL"
POLL SAYS 49% OF AMERICANS STILL
APPROVE OF HIS HANDLING OF THE
ECONOMY.
ECONOMY. YOU JUST WALKED US THROUGH HOW
THERE’S BEEN MISHANDLING OF THE
ECONOMY.
ECONOMY. WHY AREN’T DEMOCRATS SEIZING ON
THIS WHEN JOE BIDEN TALKS ABOUT
THE NEED FOR MORAL LEADERSHIP
THE PRESIDENT RESPONDS BY SAYING
YOU WANT MORALITY OR YOU WANT
YOUR MONEY?
YOUR MONEY? AND THERE ARE PEOPLE WHO MIGHT
NOT SAY IT AT DINNER PARTIES BUT
WHEN THEY GO HOME THEY START TO
SAY, I NEED TO PROTECT MY
401(K).
401(K). AND THEY BELIEVE IT.
>> I THINK IF YOU WANT MORALITY
AND GOOD FISCAL LEADERSHIP YOU
WANT A DEMOCRAT IN THE WHITE
HOUSE BECAUSE WHAT WE’RE SEEING
IN NEW JERSEY AND IT IS
INTERESTING YOU JUST PLAYED THAT
CLIP FROM MORRISTOWN.
THAT IS IN MY DISTRICT.
I WISH THE PRESIDENT HAD LEFT
THE AIR STRIP AND GONE TO TALK
TO PEOPLE IN MY DISTRICT BECAUSE
HE WOULD REALIZE THE ECONOMIC
HARM HE IS DOING ACROSS THE
COUNTRY TO PEOPLE WHEN THEY, YOU
KNOW, THEY DO HAVE JOBS.
WE DO HAVE EMPLOYMENT.
BUT PEOPLE AREN’T RECEIVING THE
PAYCHECKS THEY WERE SEVERAL
YEARS AGO.
YEARS AGO. >> THEN WHY DOES HE HAVE SUCH A
HIGH APPROVAL RATING WHEN IT
COMES TO HOW HE IS HANDLING THE
ECONOMY?
ECONOMY? >> I THINK WE ARE STARTING TO
SEE THE CRACKS IN THAT.
THIS IS WHERE THE RUBBER IS
MEETING THE ROAD.
IT’S TAKEN A WHILE.
IT TAKES A WHILE AS I THINK A
COMMENTATOR SAID EARLIER THIS
MORNING, YOU KNOW, WHEN YOU’RE
MOVING A SHIP, IT TAKES A LITTLE
BIT OF TIME FOR THE RESULTS TO
BE FELT.
BE FELT. WE’RE STARTING TO FEEL THE
RESULTS OF HIS POLICIES NOW.
>> PHIL, LET’S GO WITH A LITTLE
PALACE INTRIGUE.
PALACE INTRIGUE. YOU AND I BOTH KNOW FROM OUR OWN
REPORTING THAT THE PRESIDENT’S
ADVISERS LOOK TO GO TO GREAT
LENGTHS TO FIND ARTICLES AND
DATA TO PLEASE THE PRESIDENT, TO
SUPPORT HIS POINT OF VIEW.
HOW DANGEROUS IS IT RIGHT NOW
THAT THAT IS CONTINUING TO BE
THE CASE?
THE CASE? AND WHEN THE PRESIDENT LOOKS AT
DATA THAT HE DOESN’T LIKE, HE IS
NOW CLAIMING IT’S BEING
MANIPULATED.
MANIPULATED. >> YEAH, WELL THAT IS SPOT ON,
STEPH.
STEPH. MY REPORTING LAST WEEK SHOWS
THAT LARRY KUDLOW, THE ECONOMIC
ADVISER IN THE WHITE HOUSE, HAS
BEEN PRESENTING A FAIRLY SUNNY
OUTLOOK ABOUT THE ECONOMY TO THE
PRESIDENT, SHOWING HIM GOOD
DATA, TRYING TO EXPLAIN TO HIM
WHY HE DOESN’T THINK A RECESSION
IS IN THE OFFING.
AND IT CONFLICTS WITH OF COURSE
WHAT THE PRESIDENT IS CONSUMING
ON TELEVISION AND WHAT HE’S
READING IN NEWSPAPERS.
AND THE PRESIDENT HAS BEEN
TELLING FRIENDS THAT HE THINKS
THERE’S A CONSPIRACY AT PLAY
HERE.
HERE. THAT HE THINKS THE NEWS MEDIA IS
PUMPING UP THE IDEA OF A
RECESSION USING FAULTY DATA AND,
IMPORTANTLY, HE DOESN’T BELIEVE
ALL OF THE ECONOMIC STATISTICS
HE SEES BECAUSE HE THINKS
ECONOMISTS ARE ELITES AND OUT TO
GET HIM AND ARE USING AN
ANTI-TRUMP BIAS WITH THEIR
NUMBERS TO TRY TO DERAIL HIS
RE-ELECTION HOPES.
RE-ELECTION HOPES. >> PAUL SINGER, MASSIVE
REPUBLICAN WHO RUNS ELLIOTT
MANAGEMENT JUST LAST WEEK
WARNING OF A HUGE ECONOMIC
SLOWDOWN.
SLOWDOWN. I WANT TO TALK ABOUT THE TEAM
SURROUNDING THE PRESIDENT.
PETER NAVARRO, LARRY KUDLOW,
STEVE MNUCHIN.
STEVE MNUCHIN. "THE WASHINGTON POST" RAN
MULTIPLE OP EDS THIS WEEKEND
CALLING THEM MEN WITHOUT A PLAN.
GIVE US A BIT OF HISTORICAL
PERSPECTIVE.
PERSPECTIVE. I HAD A GUEST LAST WEEK WHO SAID
PRESIDENTS OBAMA AND BUSH IN
TIMES OF CRISIS WERE SURROUNDED
BY NBA ALL STAR TEAMS AND
PRESIDENT TRUMP HAS THE HARLEM
GLOBETROTTERS.
GLOBETROTTERS. >> YOU HAVE AN UNUSUAL MOMENT
WHERE IT IS NOT JUST THAT THOSE
THREE LEADERS ARE NOT AS TESTED
AND EXPERIENCED WITH KIND OF THE
MECHANISMS OF GOVERNMENT AND HOW
YOU USE THOSE TO TRY AND DEAL
WITH ECONOMIC CHALLENGES BUT
ALSO THE LEVEL UNDER THEM IS
UNDER STAFFED.
UNDER STAFFED. IF YOU GO TO TREASURY, GO TO THE
WHITE HOUSE, A LOT OF THE MID
LEVEL JOBS ARE NOT AS STAFFED AS
IN THE PAST.
WHATEVER YOU THINK OF THE BUSH
ADMINISTRATION WHEN THE CRISIS
HAPPENED IN 2007, 2008, THEY
KIND OF CAST IDEOLOGY ASIDE, DID
SOME BAIL OUTS THAT THEY DIDN’T
LIKE DOING.
LIKE DOING. THEY DID SOME FISCAL STIMULUS
THEY DIDN’T LIKE DOING BUT THEY
SAW DAMAGE AND RISK TO THE
ECONOMY AND PULLED THE TRIGGERS
AND DID THOSE THINGS.
THE QUESTION IS, IF THINGS TAKE