This is Germany in the 1980s.
Before the Berlin Wall came down.
Still fractured in two between two world superpowers, and this is the map of Nuclear Power plants
that powered the country.
The 1980s was an eventful time period for this recovering nation.
Chernobyl, located here, just north of Kiev, exploded.
Showering Europe in radioactive material.
The severity of the incident can be hard to grasp in hindsight.
Iodine tablets were distributed across Europe.
An emergency preventative medicine to ensure that the thyroid gland is saturated in non-radioactive
iodine, preventing it from absorbing the radioactive iodine present in nuclear fallout.
Where it could fester and cause cancer.
The fallout from Chernobyl spread on westerly winds across Europe.
And the news spread even faster.
The people of Europe were afraid.
“Local people received 7.4 milligrays an hour of radiation
Radioactive cesium is recycling in the moss Because I have been thinking all day about
this radiation radiation and nothing more The chernobyl disaster could reap a bitter
harvest for the peasant farmers of Poland's far north east
If the worst has already happened, the first cases of leukemia should be appearing now.”
Chernobyl was given the highest ranking on the International Nuclear Event Scale.
A 7, a major accident with a large release of radioactive materials.
Or, in less technical terms, Europe was crop dusted in cancer dust.
[1]
This event, understandably, put a massive dent in support for nuclear energy across
the world.
But, this wasn’t the genesis of the anti-nuclear movement in Germany.
In 1975, 30,000 protestors occupied the construction site of a new nuclear power plant in south
western Germany, on the border with France.
In 1979, 7 years before chernobyl, 200,000 protestors took to the streets of Germany
after the 3 Mile Island nuclear disaster in the United States.
The anti-nuclear movement in Germany was a grassroots movement, led by the people, and
driven by fears of the very real danger nuclear energy poses.
There was a tremendous amount of political pressure to begin phasing out these plants,
and these protests led directly to the creation of Germany’s Green Party in 1980.
The Chernobyl accident of 1986 simply strengthened the support for the Greens political ideology.
To phase out nuclear energy completely.
In 1998, the Green Party came into power for the first time, and the true end of nuclear
power in Germany was all but secured.
It was decided that no new nuclear power generators would be built in the country from then forward,
and in 2002 a law banning new nuclear energy was passed.
With two nuclear power plants being taken offline prematurely in Germany soon after.
Angela Merkel, and her opposition party the CDU, called these deactivations “destruction
of national property”
However, in the wake of the Fukushima Disaster, even Merkel's opposition to the anti-nuclear
movement began to falter.
Fukushima is the only other incident in the history of nuclear power that was ranked on
par with Chernobyl, receiving the highest ranking possible due to its impact on the
environment and the people of Japan.
The Green Party’s power in Germany was now at an all time high, winning control in influential
and powerful states in the south of Germany for the first time.
The anti-nuclear movement was too large a political football, or perhaps nuclear football,
to ignore, and Merkel’s CDU party joined the anti-nuclear movement.
Nuclear Energy had lost this war, and the final nuclear power plants in Germany began
to flicker out.
On April 15th 2023.
The final nuclear power plant was shut down.
Holding on through the energy crisis caused by Russia’s invasion on Ukraine, it finally
met its planned end.
The images of protestors, celebrating the end of their 50 year war on nuclear energy,
were met with anger and disgust by pro-nuclear activists online.
Mirroring Merkal’s “destruction of national property” outrage in the early 2000s.
How could you celebrate something that so clearly harms Germany’s goals of clean energy.
Shutting its nuclear facilities has caused Germany to be far more dependent on fossil
fuel than its neighbor France.
This is what a typical day in France looks like.
Baseload is provided by nuclear energy.
Providing 65-75% of the country's power depending on the time of day.
Wind, Solar and Hydro play their part too, with a small amount of flexible gas powered
plants available to quickly ramp up when called upon.
Releasing just 30-40 grams of carbon dioxide per kilowatt hour generated.
France is in a group of few.
An industrial giant.
Energy independent.
Not reliant on foreign imports of fossil fuels.
And not just powering its own country on low carbon energy,
It also supports its own economy by exporting massive quantities of this power to its neighbors
through high voltage interconnections.
A rare example of a country with few fossil fuel resources of its own becoming an energy
exporter.
Germany couldn’t be any more different.
Germany emits 440 grams of carbon dioxide per kilowatt hour generated.
Due to the fact that 20-25% of Germany’s power comes from environmentally disastrous
coal.
With a further 10-15% coming from gas.
With the remaining power coming from wind, solar and biomass.
While Germany does receive a large percentage of its power from renewables, without adequate
energy storage or a nuclear base load, the country has become extremely dependent on
fossil fuels.
This dependance became all the more apparent as natural gas imports from Russia were cut
off, causing electricity prices to skyrocket across Europe.
This feels like a blatant own goal.
A 10 fold increase in carbon emissions.
German’s aren’t ignorant of the damage coal is having on their environment either.
Expansions of coal mines have been protested too, and the Green Party of Germany has been
under fire for its vote of approval for an expansion of an open pit mine.
If there has ever been an icon of industry driven climate change it has to be the colossal
bucket excavators that roam this mine.
[2] The German government has expressed a desire to phase out coal power soon, but their
only realistic option to do that currently is to import even more natural gas.
One thing needs to be acknowledged in this debate.
Both sides of this argument ultimately want the same end goal.
Clean, safe sustainable energy.
We are on the same team.
The disagreement is on what is considered clean and safe.
This exact argument went to the European Parliament in 2022, where France fought for EU legislation
to label Nuclear Energy and Natural Gas to be labeled green.
That second part will sound strange, but natural gas does play a vital role in expanding renewables
in the absence of suitable energy storage.
That subject needs an entire video to itself to explain.
This legislation divided the European Union, with 328 votes for and 278 against.
The success of the legislation angered many, with politicians labeling it as “an odious
greenwashing attempt with Macron (the French President) as conductor” [3]
Clearly this is a divisive issue, and GreenPeace is currently trying to sue the EU over it,
but this legislation paves the way for more countries to emulate what France has done
and invest more money into nuclear energy while meeting EU mandated sustainable energy
targets.
[4].
France, on the surface, feels like the gold standard of climate policy.
[5] But, let’s take a deeper look at how this came to be, and the challenges France
is facing in maintaining this energy policy.
For that we need to rewind 50 years.
It’s 1973.
Egyptian and Syrian forces have launched a surprise attack on Israel on the Jewish holiday
of Yom Kippur in an attempt to recapture land on the Sinai peninsula, taken from Egypt in
1967 during the Six Day War.
Western allies of Israel rushed to support their counter offensives, and in retaliation
the union of Arab oil exporters embargoed exports to these countries, causing oil prices
worldwide to skyrocket.
Despite France not being a target of these embargoes, it was a wakeup call for the powerful
country.
With few energy resources of its own, its economy was extremely vulnerable to outside
manipulation.
Nuclear Energy was the answer, and from 1974 onwards nuclear energy capacity rapidly grew.
cutscene of nuclear power plants coming online and capacity rising.
[6]
Over the course of these 23 years France increased its nuclear capacity at an impressive rate
building 56 reactors in 19 different locations.
However, new builds stopped abruptly in the wake of Chernobyl, with only two new reactors
beginning construction in the aftermath of this disaster.
Civaux 1 and 2, taking 8 and 9 years to complete.
They came online in 1997 and 1999.
These are the youngest nuclear power plants in France.
24 and 26 years old.
The oldest nuclear power plant currently is the Bugey 2 reactor.
Brought online in 1978, it is now 45 years old.
Its older sibling, Bugey 1 began operation in 1972, and was decommissioned in 1994.
It was an obsolete design, graphite moderated and cooled with carbon dioxide.
It needed to be decommissioned for safety reasons.
Nuclear power plants typically have a life expectancy between 20 and 40 years, which
poses a problem to the French national grid, and the European grid at large,
I listed every nuclear power reactor in France on this excel sheet, and was honestly shocked
when I hit the averaging function.
The average age of nuclear reactors in France is now 39 years old, and these aging reactors
are beginning to cause some major headaches.
In 2022, in the midst of an energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,
France’s energy utility provider, the EDF, was ordered by the country's nuclear watchdog
to inspect all plants after a 23 millimeter deep crack was found in a 27 mm thick cooling
pipe which circulates low level radioactive cooling water to the reactor.[7]The cracks
formed as a result of thermal fatigue in a weld seam, where heating and cooling cycles
caused the pipe to expand and contract.
This crack could have ruptured the pipe at any moment, and its presence raised alarm
bells for the state of nuclear energy in the country, and subsequent cracks were found
at other reactors.
In the aftermath of these discoveries nuclear energy output for the country fell to a 34
year low while these plants were taken offline for inspection and repairs.
This problem was a result of decades of under investment and mismanagement of nuclear energy
in France, and to make matters worse, the technical skills needed to fix the issue have
faded from existence in France as a result of the 30 year gap in nuclear energy investments
and construction.
France is now rushing to invest and support welding schools to bring back this important
skill.
[8] And they need it desperately.
Now, just as the Yom Kippur war woke France up to its energy situation, the war in Ukraine
and these power outages are encouraging political movement.
France has begun a frantic reinvestment cycle into nuclear energy.
Just a few days after narrowly escaping an ousting from Government through an unsuccessful
no-confidence vote, a new nuclear energy investment plan won a landslide victory.
Gaining bipartisan support, the plan will see 56 billion dollars be poured into building
6 next generation EPR2 nuclear reactors.
[9]
The first generation EPR began construction in north western France in 2007.
Over 16 years ago.
When the average age of French nuclear reactors was just 21 years old.
It still hasn’t delivered any power, and is nearly 5 times over budget at 13.2 billion
dollars.
A far cry from the 3 billion dollars and 8 year construction time originally quoted.
[10]
The second generation design has been specifically redesigned to address these cost and construction
issues.
The design challenge of making these nuclear reactors safe, with all the knowledge we have
gained from accidents over the years, is immense.
This is not an isolated incident.
This study states that out of 180 nuclear construction projects, 175 of them overran
cost estimations.
Costing on average 117 percent more than estimated, and taking 64 percent more time than projected.
[11]
The latest delay of this new reactor was due to simple welding issues again.
When even your welds require specialized heat treatments, requiring specialized skilled
laborers, and stringent safety checks, it’s going to cause headaches.
The reality is, Nuclear Energy keeps getting more expensive as new safety standards are
realized with each accident that occurs.
While renewable energy keeps getting cheaper.
The first of the six next generation EPR2 reactors will not begin construction until
May 2027.
Optimistically, they will take about 8 years to construct at which point the average age
of nuclear reactors in France will be 49 years old.
Aging nuclear reactors, to say the least, are not ideal.
Posing major reliability issues as we have already seen, but a potentially disastrous
safety hazard too.
France is staring down the barrel of major electrical grid instabilities due to decades
of under investment in nuclear energy.
Nuclear energy, when done right, is clearly the best solution to reduce carbon dioxide
emissions that we have right now, but the problem is, it frequently isn’t done right.
So, we have to ask ourselves.
Does Germany have a point?
Were they right to close these nuclear reactors down?
Or perhaps a middle ground between France and Germany was needed.
Slowly ramping down nuclear energy while developing new renewable energy resources with the energy
storage needed to create a stable grid
Or perhaps we need to acknowledge the fact that nuclear energy as it stands is not viable
long term, and we need to invest in future technologies that make it safer, cleaner and
cheaper.
The reactor still under construction in France, as it stands, has a cost of 8 million dollars
per Megawatt.
While wind turbines cost between 1 and 2 million dollars per megawatt, and critically, they
can be installed gradually without having to commit billions to a single project.
In a sense, wind turbines are modular.
Smaller, cheaper, easy to replace.
One future tech being worked on right now aims to give nuclear energy this same advantage.
Small modular nuclear reactors aim to make smaller reactors that generate less power,
but can have additional modules added over time to increase capacity.
Reducing initial capital investment, making it easier to replace aging modules, and allowing
the reactors to be placed in locations not suitable for larger traditional power plants.
There are several companies working on these designs now, and in the next episode of Real
Engineering we deep dive into these technologies.
Until then you may want to get ahead of the game.
I get asked by engineering students pretty frequently if I have any advice for how to
do well in college.
And I only really have two bits of advice that I think is applicable to every person.
First, get to know your teachers, they want to help you and experienced and well connected
friends are how you get opportunities in life.
Second, get ahead of your peers.
Students get a huge amount of time off in the summer and most, including myself, wasted
it.
I spent my summers enjoying my free time, but I mostly wasted it playing computer games
and partying.
Until I struggled to get a job after college I didn’t realize how much time I wasted.
Once I got accepted into my masters program and decided to change how I approach life.
I asked the head of the aeronautical program what the most difficult subjects were, and
if I could get a copy of the textbooks early.
He sent them out and I came into my stability and control classes ahead of everyone else.
It enabled me to help my classmates and make friends and allowed me to concentrate on projects
when time was tight in exam season.
Teaching yourself isn’t easy though, however I have a solution to that.
Brilliant.
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I would highly recommend completing every course on the advanced mathematics syllabus
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Every single one of these will give you an edge in understanding engineering concepts.
If you aren’t comfortable diving in this deep, there is a mathematics fundamentals
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Second, learn python.
It can help you automate things to make your life easier and it is used in a lot of engineering
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I used it in my master thesis to create plugins for abaqus, an engineering modeling software
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I struggled to teach it to myself when I needed it, and I wish I just came into my masters
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If you’ve never done any coding before, you can check out their new course Thinking
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Then once you’ve mastered the basics, Brilliant has more advanced python courses too.
These are likely the most universally useful courses to present and future engineers, but
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