FROM GATHERINGS OR GOT MORE
SERIOUS ABOUT EVERYTHING THAT
YOU’VE RECOMMENDED AND THE
EXPERTS HAVE RECOMMENDED, THEN
THAT CAN WORK.
ON THE VARIANCE, YOU HAVE THE
SOUTH AFRICAN ONE THAT’S GETTING
ATTENTION BECAUSE IT’S SEEN AS
MORE INFECTIOUS AND RESISTANT TO
VACCINES.
THAT’S HERE IN THE U.S.
MEANWHILE, A TOP EPIDEMIOLOGIST
WHO ADVISED JOE BIDEN IS
OFFERING THIS WARNING ABOUT THE
BRITISH STRAIN TODAY.
>> THE SURGE THAT IS LIKELY TO
OCCUR WITH THIS NEW VARIANT FROM
ENGLAND IS GOING TO HAPPEN IN
THE NEXT SIX TO 14 WEEKS.
WE ARE GOING TO SEE SOMETHING
LIKE WE HAVE NOT SEEN YET IN
THIS COUNTRY.
I SEE THAT HURRICANE 5, CATEGORY
5 OR HIGHER 450 MILES OFFSHORE.
TELLING PEOPLE TO EVACUATE IN
THAT NICE BLUE SKY DAY IS GOING
TO BE HARD.
BUT I CAN ALSO TELL YOU THAT
HURRICANE IS COMING.
>> DOES THAT SOUND RIGHT TO YOU,
OR IS IT POSSIBLY OVERBLOWN?
>> WELL, LET’S PUT IT THIS WAY.
THAT CERTAINLY THAT IS A
POSSIBILITY, BUT I THINK IF WE
DO THE THINGS THAT YOU AND I
HAVE JUST MENTIONED A MOMENT
AGO, THAT DOESN’T NECESSARILY
HAVE TO HAPPEN.
SO WHAT DR. OSTERHOLM, WHO IS A
GOOD FRIEND, IS SAYING, HE TENDS
TO THINK IN TERMS OF THE WORST
CASE SCENARIO.
NOW THE WORST CASE SCENARIO MAY
OCCUR, BUT I THINK WE HAVE THE
POWER WITHIN US TO DO THINGS TO
PREVENT THAT FROM OCCURRING.
SO IF YOU GET A DOMINANT STRAIN,
AND HE IS QUITE CORRECT IN
SAYING THAT IF YOU DO MODELING,
THE UK STRAIN, WHICH IS THE
B117, WHICH SHOWS TO BE MORE
TRANSMISSIBLE IN THE UK LEADING
TO THEIR SURGE, IF IT BECOMES
DOMINANT IN THE UNITED STATES,
WE WILL BE CHALLENGED WITH A
VIRUS THAT HAS A DEGREE OF
TRANSMISSIBILITY THAT’S MORE
EFFICIENT THAN WHAT WE’VE BEEN
DEALING WITH.
AND BECAUSE OF THAT, THAT SHOULD
BE AN IMPETUS FOR US TO DOUBLE
DOWN SO THAT UNIFORMLY, NOT SPOT
LILIY
LY SPOTTILY, BUT UNIFORMLY
THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY WE DO
HAVE ADHERENCE TO THOSE MEASURES
THAT WE KNOW WORK.
SO HE IS CORRECT IN SAYING THAT
THIS IS A POSSIBILITY, AND IT
MIGHT BE, BUT I THINK IT DOESN’T
HAVE TO BE AN INEVITABILITY.
A POSSIBILITY BUT NOT
NECESSARILY AN INEVITABILITY.
>> THAT’S, IF I MAY SAY SO,
THAT’S VERY DR. FAUCI THE WAY
YOU’RE PUTTING IT.
YOU’VE ALSO SAID HERD IMMUNITY
WOULD BE GETTING SOMEWHERE
AROUND ROUGHLY 75% VACCINATION
RATES.
IF, THOUGH, THESE OTHER VARIANTS
SPREAD ENOUGH, DOES THAT PRIOR
ADVICE HOLD OR DOES IT BECOME
MORE COMPLICATED?
>> WELL, THAT’S VERY
INTERESTING.
SO IT GETS A LITTLE COMPLICATED,
BUT I THINK I CAN SIMPLIFY IT.
I’VE SAID, AND THIS IS PURELY AN
ESTIMATE, BECAUSE WE DON’T HAVE
THE DATA TO PROVE IT, BUT I
THINK IT’S A REASONABLY ACCURATE
ESTIMATE, THAT IF WE GET 70 TO
85% OF THE POPULATION
VACCINATED, THAT WE WILL IN FACT
GET A DEGREE OF HERD
IMMUNITY,ABLY BE REPRESENTED BY
KIND OF AN UMBRELLA OR A BLANKET
OF PROTECTION SO THAT THE LEVEL
OF VIRUS IS SO LOW THAT IT IS
NOT THREATENING ANYMORE.
NOW, THE POINT IS THAT IF YOU
GET THESE VARIANTS THAT
DOMINATE, THE ONES THAT YOU NEED
TO BE CONCERNED ABOUT MORE SO
THAN THE BRITISH ONE IS THE ONE
IN SOUTH AFRICA, BECAUSE THE ONE
IN SOUTH AFRICA, WHICH IS 351,
THAT’S JUST THE NAME OF THE
LINEAGE, WE DON’T LIKE TO CALL
IT BY THE COUNTRY.
IT GETS TO BE A LITTLE
STIGMATIZING THE COUNTRY WHICH
WE SHOULDN’T BE DOING.
BUT IF THAT BECOMES DOMINANT IN
THE COUNTRY, IT TENDS TO EVADE
THE EFFICACY OF THE VACCINE
SOMEWHAT.
SO IT MIGHT BE THAT IT WOULD
SPREAD MORE RAPIDLY.
THAT’S THE SOBERING NEWS.
THE NEWS THAT IS A BIT
BIT ENCOURAGING, THAT THE DATA
THAT WE SAW FROM SOUTH AFRICA
WITH ANOTHER VACCINE, NAMELY THE
J&J VACCINE, THAT EVEN THOUGH IT
WAS ACTUALLY NOT 94 TO 95%
EFFECTIVE, IT WAS ONLY ABOUT,
YOU KNOW, I WOULD SAY 72%
EFFECTIVE OVERALL, BUT IT DID
PROTECT VERY WELL AGAINST SEVERE
DISEASE LEADING TO
HOSPITALIZATION AND DEATH.
SO WHAT WE COULD SEE IF IT
BECOMES DOMINANT AND WE DON’T
HAVE TIME TO UPGRADE THE
VACCINE, WHICH WE’RE WORKING ON
ALREADY, TRYING TO UPGRADE A
VACCINE TO DIRECTLY ADDRESS THE
NEW MUTANTS, WE MAY SEE A
SITUATION WHERE WE HAVE MORE
INFECTIONS, BUT IF THE PEOPLE
GET VACCINATED, THE OVERWHELMING
PROPORTION OF THE PEOPLE GET
VACCINATED, THAT YOU HAVE THE
UNUSUAL SITUATION OF A LOT MORE
INFECTIONS, EVEN IF YOU’RE
VACCINATED, BUT VERY FEWER
PEOPLE GETTING SERIOUS DISEASE
AND DYING.
IS THAT CLEAR?
I MEAN, I THINK THAT’S
IMPORTANT, BECAUSE IT CAN BE
CONFUSING.
>> WELL, LET ME SAY IT BACK TO
YOU AS A LAYPERSON, NOT THE
EXPERT THAT YOU ARE.
IT ALMOST SOUNDS LIKE YOU’RE
SAYING THE PUBLIC HEALTH BENEFIT
WOULD BE SOMETHING WE MORE
ASSOCIATE WITH TREATMENT RATHER
THAN VACCINATION IN THE SENSE
THAT YOU’RE GOING TO HAVE AT A
COLLECTIVE LEVEL LESS OF THE
MOST EXTREME SEVERE OR DEADLY
RESULT WHICH IS A COLLECTIVE
GOOD EVEN THOUGH IT DIDN’T -- GO
AHEAD.
>> YOU’RE ABSOLUTELY CORRECT,
ARI.
THAT’S EXACTLY WHAT THEY SAW
WHEN THEY TESTED.
AND IT’S ANOTHER VACCINE, IT’S
THE J&J VACCINE.
WHEN THEY TESTED IT IN SOUTH
AFRICA, THE PREVENTION OF
INFECTION WAS MARKEDLY
DIMINISHED WHEN YOU WERE TALKING
ABOUT MILD TO MODERATE DISEASE,
IT WAS LIKE 57 OR SO PERCENT.
BUT WHEN YOU LOOKED AT SEVERE
DISEASE, IT WAS ABOUT 88%
PROTECTION.
AND WHEN YOU’RE LOOKING AT
HOSPITALIZATION AND DEATH, IT
WAS ALMOST 100% PROTECTED.
SO IT WAS THIS INTERESTING
SITUATION WHERE YOU HAVE A
VACCINE WHICH IN THE CLASSIC
SENSE WAS NOT PREVENTING YOU
FROM GETTING INFECTED OR EVEN
MILDLY ILL, BUT IT WHAT IT WAS
PREVENTING YOU FROM DOING WAS
GETTING EXTREMELY ILL AND DYING.
SO THAT’S THE THING THAT’S THE
DIFFERENCE THERE.
>> I THINK -- WELL, DOCTOR, WHAT
I WAS GOING TO SUGGEST, THAT’S
SUCH AN IMPORTANT POINT.
I HOPE THAT SINKS IN WITH
PEOPLE.
IT’S ALSO A REMINDER OF WHY SO
MUCH OF THIS SCIENCE, WHICH
YOU’VE ENCOURAGED EVERYONE TO
FOLLOW, AND WHICH WE HAVE
MULTIPLE COMPANIES AROUND THE
WORLD PURSUING CAN DELIVER MORE