On the 29 March 2019, when the clock strikes 11,
Britain will officially leave the European Union.
It will be a historic moment.
No country has ever left the EU before.
The mess caused by Brexit is the biggest problem
in the history of EU/UK relations.
What is that supposed to mean?
Money!
Even asking this question is controversial.
I can see you heading for the comment section
but hold on.
52% for leave, 48% for remain.
Although the referendum in 2016 was close,
more British people voted for Brexit than have voted for anything else ever.
But it was also the first time in British history that voters chose something
that did not have a majority support in parliament.
Now there's a growing campaign focused on keeping Britain in the EU
by any means necessary.
The referendum result, if I'll compare it to a football match,
there was a dodgy referee, the opposition had one extra player
and the goal was scored in the 96th minute.
It was based on lies.
Britain may have triggered article 50 and begun the exit process under EU law,
but overturning Brexit is still theoretically possible.
Our article 50 letter could be withdrawn without cost or difficulty,
legal or political.
The EU, for all its technical, legal language, is a deeply political organisation.
It's going well, it's very very well organised.
If both sides, Britain and the EU, agreed to stop Brexit,
they would find a way to do it.
That is a very big if.
So let's look at the options.
It boils down to three main scenarios.
First up, the politicians stop Brexit by themselves.
It's important to remember that parliament by itself
has the legal authority to overturn the referendum.
The referendum was advisory.
For Brexit to take effect,
a majority of members of parliament have to allow it through.
If enough MPs decided to cancel Brexit,
in theory at least they could do so
but it would mean parliament overturning the result of a democratic referendum.
It would almost certainly provoke a massive backlash.
I fear that the great Brexit betrayal has begun.
But politicians overturning referendums isn't unheard of in Europe.
As recently as 2015, Greek voters said no to an EU bailout
that came with major austerity clauses.
In the end though Greek MPs ignored their voters
and overturned the referendum result to keep Greece in the eurozone.
Parliament is sovereign, if the MPs so chose,
they could just vote to annul the referendum
and to remain in the European Union.
That of course isn't going to happen, I don't think,
because it's a very bad look.
What easy way?
No matter what I do, somebody gets hurt.
So what about something a little easier to imagine?
You're joking.
You've probably heard a lot of talk about a possible second referendum
and the EU has a rich history of rerunning referendums.
… just thrown a massive spanner into the mechanism that decides
how the European Union will be run.
Ireland voted to reject the EU's Lisbon treaty in 2008.
Irish voters were then asked to vote again in the face of an economic crisis.
Is this some kind of a deja vu?
The second time around, they voted the opposite way.
Five hundred and ninety-four thousand,
six hundred and six.
A second referendum is still pretty unlikely.
Parliament would have to agree to it for a start
and so it would come down to those MPs again
and time is running out fast.
There's also the question of what a second referendum would ask.
Leave v remain again?
Or a three-way choice between a deal, no deal
and no Brexit.
With the proviso that the EU will have a lot to say about what it wants,
The Conservatives in government, and Labour in opposition,
are committed to carrying out Brexit
and for now they're both against holding a new referendum.
We're not asking for a second referendum.
But politicians are highly attuned to the public mood.
If enough of them detected a clear majority calling
for a new referendum, the idea might just gain momentum.
With parliament split on the best way to deliver Brexit,
a new referendum could help break the deadlock and even reverse the original result,
Finally, there's the scenario that most worries Brexiteers.
Bino. No, not the Beano.
Although Jacob Rees-Mogg has been compared to Walter the Softy.
This is the theory that Brexit will be delayed or watered down so much
that what Britain ends up with is barely any different to what came before.
Could the prime minister inform the house
at what point it was decided that Brexit means remain.
So, no independent trade deals, no restrictions on immigration,
no real reduction in the amount Britain pays into the EU.
The prime minister has promised this won't happen over and over again.
But as Brexit Day approaches, Britain's new relationship with the EU seems
as undecided as ever.
Brexit might not be possible to stop, but one thing is certain:
the EU will continue to loom large over British politics.
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