TAKE THE POPULAR VOTE BUT COULD EDGE AHEAD HERE ALSO INIAL
DELEGATES.
DELEGATES. LATE DEVELOPMENTS IN IOWA’S
DEMOCRATIC CAUCUSES.
DEMOCRATIC CAUCUSES. RESULTS FROM MONDAY NIGHT’S
VOTES STILL TRICKLING IN.
THIS MORNING UP TO 97% OF
PRECINCTS REPORTING.
PRECINCTS REPORTING. PETE BUTTIGIEG AND SENATOR
BERNIE SANDERS ARE NEARLY IN A
TIE.
TIE. LET’S BRING IN NATIONAL
POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT FOR NBC
NEWS AND MSNBC STEVE KORNACKI.
WENT HOME, SLEPT ABOUT 45
MINUTES AND IS BACK THIS MORNING
AND MANNING HIS POST AT THE BIG
BOARD.
BOARD. >> GOOD LORD.
>> STEVE, WHERE ARE WE RIGHT
NOW?
NOW? >> HERE A LITTLE AFTER MIDNIGHT
AND WE GOT A MASSIVE CHANGE HERE
IN IOWA.
IN IOWA. YOU CAN SEE WHAT IT LOOKS LIKE.
YOU JUST PUT IT UP.
0.2% SEPARATING SENATOR SANDERS
AND PETE BUTTIGIEG.
THE KEY IS THIS NUMBER
UNDERNEATH THE 26.2, 55 FOR PETE
BUTTIGIEG AND 540 FOR BERNIE
SANDERS.
SANDERS. THE UNIT OF MEASUREMENT THEY USE
IN IOWA TO DETERMINE THE WINNER,
TO DETERMINE THE NATIONAL
CONVENTION DELEGATES CALLED THE
STATE DELEGATE EQUIVALENT.
STATE DELEGATE EQUIVALENT.
SORRY TO DO BE SO ARCANE BUT
THIS IS VERY IMPORTANT, BECAUSE
THIS IS HOW THE WINNER’S GOING
TO BE DECIDED.
MARGIN RIGHT NOW IS FOUR STATE
DELEGATE EQUIVALENTS.
DELEGATE EQUIVALENTS. NOT MANY STATE DELEGATE
EQUIVALENTS LEFT UP FOR GRABS IN
IOWA.
IOWA. THE REASON IT GOT SO CLOSE, THE
REASON SANDERS HAS A CHANCE IS
NOT TO DO WITH ANYTHING THAT’S
HAPPENED ON THE MAP WE’VE SHOWN
YOU THE PAST THREE DAYS.
HAS TO DO WITH THESE.
REMEMBER THESE?
REMEMBER THESE? THE SATELLITE CAUCUSES.
ON CAUCUS DAY, ON MONDAY BEFORE
EVERYBODY SHOWED UP FOR THE
REGULAR SCHEDULED CAUCUSES THEY
AGREED TO HOLD MEETINGS FOR
FOLKS WHO HAD TO WORK AT NIGHT,
FOLKS WITH LIMITATIONS NOT
ALLOWAL THEM TO GET-TO-TO THEIR
NORMAL CAUCUSES.
NORMAL CAUCUSES. HAD A BUNCH AND SPREAD THEM OUT
BY FOUR CONGRESS MANY DISTRICTS.
THERE ARE FOUR IN IOWA.
FOUR, THREE, TWO, ONE AND WAITED
TO THE VERY END TO RELEASE HE’S.
CHECK OUT WHAT HAPPENED THREE.
FOURTH CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT.
BERNIE SANDERS, 75%.
PETE BUTTIGIEG GOT 5%.
CHECK OUT WHAT HAPPENED IN THE
THIRD CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT.
THIS IS DES MOINES.
THE BIGGEST ONE.
CHECK THIS OUT.
69% SANDERS.
69% SANDERS. YOU GOT TO GO ALL THE WAY DOWN
HERE TO FIND BUTTIGIEG AT 1%.
CHECK OUT WHAT HAS HAPPENED IN
THE SECOND CONGRESSIONAL
DISTRICT.
DISTRICT. THIS IS THE IOWA CITY COLLEGE.
MORE SUPPORT HERE FOR WARREN.
AGAIN, 53% FOR SANDERS, PAST
KLOBUCHAR, BIDEN, YANG, OH,
THERE HE IS.
THERE’S PETE BUTTIGIEG.
YOU SEE WHAT IT ADDS UP TO.
DOT MATH.
DOT MATH. PRETEND ROUGHLY, MY
APPROXIMATION OF IOWA.
FOUR CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS.
SANDERS GAINED ON BUTTIGIEG
THREE HERE IN THE FOURTH
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT.
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT. 12 HERE IN THE THIRD
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT AND ABOUT
5.5, CALL IT 5 HERE IN THE
SECOND CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT.
HE GAINED 20 STATE DELEGATE
EQUIVALENTS FROM THESE THREE
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS.
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS. AS I SAID, THERE IS ONE LEFT.
THE FIRST CONGRESSIONAL
DISTRICT.
DISTRICT. SORT OF THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE STATE.
THE STATE. WE’RE EXPECTING TO GET THAT
SOMETIME TODAY HOPEFULLY
SOMETIME THIS MORNING.
IF -- IF -- THE PATTERN WE SEE
HOLDING IN THE OTHER
CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICTS, SANDERS
RUNNING AWAY WITH IT.
BUTTIGIEG NOT REGISTERING, IF
THAT HOLDS, THAT’S THE
POSSIBILITY FOR BERNIE SANDERS
TO NET ANOTHER LOAD OF STATE
DELEGATES THAT WOULD PUT HIM
OVER THE TOP.
I CAN TELL YOU IT’S COMING DOWN
TO, ALWAYS SAY THE CLICHE, COMES
DOWN TO TURNOUT.
THE NUMBER OF STATE DELEGATES
THAT WILL BE UP FOR GRABS IN THE
FIRST CONGRESSIONAL DISTRICT SAT
SLIGHT CAUCUS DEPENDS ON HOW
MANY TURNED OUT TO VOTE.
600, 1 OR MORE, IT’S GOING TO BE
WORTH ABOUT 11 STATE DELEGATE
EQUIVALENTS.
EQUIVALENTS. IF IT IS 600 OR LESS, IT’S GOING
TO BE WORTH 5.6.
IF IT’S 11 I THINK SANDERS CAN
GET OVER BUTTIGIEG STATE-WIDE
AND BUILD UP A BIG ENOUGH LEAD
RIGHT THERE, BECAUSE THERE ARE
OUTSTANDING PRECINCTS HERE IN
IOWA TO COME IN.
BUTTIGIEG COULD PICK UP A LITTLE
HERE.
HERE. 600 PLUS 1 TURNOUT, BUTTIGIEG
COULD GET THAT.
600 OR LESS IT IS MUCH DICIER
FOR HIM AND I CAN TELL YOU WE
GOT FOLKS OUT THERE WHO ARE
CHECKING THESE PRECINCTS AS THEY
COME IN.
COME IN. THEIR BEST GUESS NOW IS THAT
NUMBER WILL BE RIGHT AROUND 600.
>> WOW.
>> WOW. SO JUST TO RECAP.
IF IT HITS THAT 601 BERNIE
SANDERS TAKES THE DELEGATES.
DELEGATE EQUIVALENTS.
DELEGATE EQUIVALENTS. HOW WE MEASURE OUR WINNER.
ALSO ALREADY, THE SANDERS
CAMPAIGN CAN CLAIM VICTORY BASED
ON THE VOTE TOTAL.
FIRST TIME WE’VE SEEN THAT THIS
YEAR.
YEAR. THEY MADE THAT PUBLIC.
I DON’T WANT TO JUMP AHEAD TOO
FAR, STEVE, BUT IS IT FAIR TO
SAY THESE RESULTS WILL BE
CONTESTED EITHER WAY BASED ON
WHATS IN A COUPLE HOURS WITH
THAT ONE OUTSTANDING SATELLITE
CAUCUS AREA?
CAUCUS AREA? >> YOU CAN IMAGINE, YEAH, IF
IT -- GOING TO BE TIGHT NO
MATTER WHAT.
MATTER WHAT. PROBABLY YOU’VE SEEN IF
FOLLOWING ONLINE, IN THIS
PRECINCT I THAW THIS, IN THIS
ONE, HERE’S A PICTURE WHAT’S
HAPPENING.
HAPPENING. THE CAMPAIGNS HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO LODGE CHALLENGES,
TO LODGE COMPLAINTS WITH THE
STATE DEMOCRATIC PARTY.
I BELIEVE HAVE TO DO IT BY
FRIDAY.
FRIDAY. THEN A PERIOD OF 48 POURS THAT
THE STATE PARTY HAS TO ADDRESS
IT.
IT. 48 HOURS.
48 HOURS. A POSSIBILITY WHERE THIS LANDS A
COUPLE MORE DAYS FOR LOOKING
INTO IT, BUT YOU’RE RIGHT.
TO PUT THE NUMBER UP WHEN YOU
SAY SANDERS AND THE POPULAR VOTE
THIS CONTINUED TO GROW.
ESSENTIALLY 6,000 NOW ON THE
FIRST PREFERENCE, THE FOLKS WHO
SHOWED UP, ADVANTAGE FOR SANDERS
HAS GROWN TO 4.6000.
THE ONE USED FOR THE CHECK
MARKS, OFFICIAL WINNER, NATIONAL
CONVENTION DELEGATES, DOES HE
ALSO CATCH BUTTIGIEG THERE?
AND, WOW.
AND, WOW. THAT IS A BARN BURNER.