MAY HAVE HAD FRUIT BAMBOO WE
>> MARKETS SHAKINGING OFF
TRADE TENSIONS PRESIDENT TRUMP
USING THE STOCK MARKET AS
MEASURE OF WHO IS WINNING THE
DISPUTE, AND INDICATING THAT
U.S. HAS A CLEAR LEAD OVER
CHINA.
LISTEN TO THIS.
>> IF I DIDN'T DO ANYTHING
WITH TRADE IF I SAID NOT
GUILTY WE'RE GOING TO GET
EVERYBODY CONTINUE TO TAKE OUR
JOBS TAKE OUR WEALTH, LET THEM
CONTINUE YOU KNOW, I BET OUR
STOCK MARKET UP ALMOST 40%
SINCE I WON IF I DIDN'T DO
ANYTHING WITH TRADE KEPT
QUIET, LET THEM CONTINUE TO
TAKE ADVANTAGE OF US NOBODY
SAYS ANYTHING, I THINK YOU
WOULD HAVE BEEN UP ANOTHER 40,
50, 60% EVENTUALLY YOU WOULD
HAVE HAD TO PAY THE PIPER
EVENTUALLY WE ARE NOT GOING TO
OUR COUNTRY SO MUCH RICHER
THAN IT HAS EVER BEEN.
>> JOINING US NOW, WELLS FARGO
INVESTMENT INSTITUTE HEADED
>> WELL, MARKET BELIEVES AND
WE AGREE, THAT A DEAL IS THE
ULTIMATE GOAL HERE THAT THE
U.S. ECONOMY INTO GROUND WITH
UNENDING TARIFFS, THEY CAN GET
A NEGOTIATIONS ON THE TRADE
THEY CAN GET A DEAL ON AUTOS
WITH MEXICOS, CANADIANS
EUROPEANS WE THINK RHETORIC IS
DIALED BACK.
>> MITCH ROSCHELLE YOU
MENTIONED CHINA AND THEIR
ECONOMY SOME OF THE CHALLENGES
THAT THEIR ECONOMY SORT OF
PREDATE TRADE WAR, THEIR
GROWING MIDDLE CLASS, FUNDING
ENTITLEMENTS FOR THE MIDDLE
GROW, YOU SEE THAT IN GDP
NUMBERS, SO REGARDLESS DON'T
WE STILL HAVE THAT GLOBAL
GOING TO IMPACT OTHER GLOBAL
ECONOMIES IF TRADE WAR ISN'T
SORTED OUT.
>> YOU ARE RIGHT MITCH, THE
SLOWED DOWN SOME, THAT IS
CONFUSING THE MARKETS A LITTLE
BIT HERE, THEY ARE THINKING
ALL THE SLOWDOWN IS RELATED TO
TRADE TALK.
TRADE TALK AND AN IMPORTANT
ECONOMY THAT ON ONE HAPPENED
HAS VERY STRONGS CONSUMER
GROWTH AND ON THE OTHER HAND
HAS A LOT OF DEBT AS YOU
MENTIONED SOME ISSUES WITH THE
PROVIDING SOCIAL WELFARE HOW
THEY DON'T NEED EXTRA VARIABLE
IF YOU WILL OF TRADE
TABLE.
>> DEBT A HUGE ISSUE, PAUL
LET'S TALK ABOUT WHAT WE'RE
PAYING AS NATION TO BORROW,
JAMIE DIMON WARNING INVESTORS
TO PREPARE FOR 5% INTEREST
RATES, THAT WOULD BE YIELD ON
THE 10-YEAR TREASURY.
AND THIS CERTAINLY IS A MAJOR
CONCERN IT IS NOT SHOWING UP
IN THE MARKETS SO MUCH AT THIS
POINT, BUT NOW THAT BACK TO
RUNNING ONE TRILLION-DOLLAR
DEFICITS, WE'RE IN A FIGHT
WITH ONE OF THE PLAERJS
HOLDERS OF OUR LARGEST HOLDERS
SOMEONE WE LENIENTLIED ON
CHINA RELIED UPON TO BUY OUR
DEBT FUND DEFICIT YOUR
REACTION?
>> WE DON'T THINK THERE IS
MUCH CHANCE OF GOING TO BACK
TO 4% ANY TIME SOON, ON THE
10-YEAR YIELD, YES, THE DEBT
AND NO, WE DON'T THINK CHINESE
ARE ABOUT READY TO DUMP THEIR
HOLDINGS OF U.S. TREASURYS THE
LARGEST LIQUID MARKET IN THE
WORLD IF YOU ARE A GOVERNMENT
NEEDS TO HOLD TRILLIONS OF
DOLLARS RESERVES THERE IS NO
OTHER PLACE TO GO BUT TO HOLD
U.S. TREASURYS WE DON'T THINK
A REAL THREAT THERE BUT THE
FORWARD, ON THE OTHER HAND,
YOU'VE GOT STILL QUITE A
DEMOGRAPHIC CHALLENGE FORWARD
AS MANY OF US AGE AND GET INTO
THE RETIREMENT YEARS WE ARE
GOING TO BE HOLDING ALLOTTED
MORE DEBT ANYWAY, THAT ITS
GOING TO HELP YIELDS BE LOWER
UP O TO 4 ANY TIME SOON RATHER
LOW YIELDS LOOK TO US THE MAIN
PROBLEM FOR INVESTORS.
>> IS AGING POPULATION AND
THOSE WHO WILL BE HOLDING MORE
SAFE IF YOU WILL TREASURYS IS
THAT BAD FOR THE STOCK MARKET
THEN?
>> WELL, WHAT IT DOES FOR THE
STOCK MARKET WHEN WILL YIELDS
ARE LOW RELATIVELY LOW ON
CAN HAVE A LITTLE BIT HIGHER
STOCK MARKET PRICES, BEFORE
STOCKS GET OVERVALLED SO WE
DON'T THINK THE STOCKING ARE
TOO RICH PART OF THAT ARGUMENT
IS 10 YEARS NOT MAKING THE
THAT WOULD BE MORE WORRIED
ABOUT STOCKS.
>> PAUL GOING BOOK TO MIKE
BAKER, HERE, GOING BACK TO
TARIFFS QUESTION, THERE IS A
BUTT OF A -- SOFTENING IN THE
TALK BETWEEN U.S.
ADMINISTRATION, AND THE EU NOW
AND TARIFFS SKIRMISH DO YOU
EXPECT THE SAME DEVELOPMENT IN
OUR CONVERSATIONS WITH CHINA?
AVAILABLE FOR THEM ANY TIME
THEY WANT TO TAKE IT.
BUT THEY ARE JUST NOT SURE
WHETHER THEY SHOULD GO NOW OR
LATER, WE THINK THERE WILL BE
A DEAL SOMETIME, THERE IS A
GOOD WINDOW FOR THAT OPENING
UP IN FALL THE CHINESE SIMPLY
NEED TO FIGURE OUT A WAY TO
CLOSE SOME TRADE DEFICIT WOULD
BY MORE LIQUID NATURAL GAS
THAN BEFORE IF THEY WERE TO DO
THAT WOULD COME A LONG WAY
TOWARDS MEETING THE PRESIDENT
IN A DETAIL I THERE I IN THE
THE END WHERE THEY FINALLY GO
MAKING SOME KIND OF DEAL ON
TRADE, U.S. AND ABOUT
EUROPEANS ALSO HAVE TALKING TO
DO NOT A DONE DEAL YET THERE
SORT OF DEAL ON AUTOS SOME
SORT OF DEAL WITH CHINESE, ON
THE TRADE DEFICIT, AND THEN WE
THINK THAT THE TRADE
NEGOTIATIONS SEEM TO A LOWER
PRIORITY AND FOR THE MARKET WE
CAN GET BACK TO THINKING ABOUT
GOOD EARNINGS GROWTH GOING
HAVING DISCUSSIONS WITH CHINA
WHY IS THAT IN THE FALL WHAT
ABOUT THE TIMING OF THAT?
>> WELL, THE -- YOU'VE GOT
MIDTERM ELECTIONS COMING UP.
DAGEN: RIGHT.
>> IN U.S., AND THE PRESIDENT
IS STILL PUTTING OUT THERE
ADDITIONAL TARIFFS AND CHINESE
FEEL OBLIGATED TO RESPOND I
THINK GAIMGDZ DEGREE OF
SERIOUSNESS THE PRESIDENT IN
OUR VIEW HAS BEEN SERIOUS BUT
SOME PEOPLE MAY BE THIS COULD
WOULD BEND OR MAKING
EXCEPTIONS, THAT IS NOT BEEN
THE CASE, SO THEY NEED TO GET
BACK TALKING AGAIN, THROW IS
SOME EVIDENCE CHINESE ARE
INTERESTED IN THAT JUST HAS TO
>> STOCK MARKET JUST KEEPS