2022 has been a year of change for Australia. You
have all heard about the latest one: : following the death of Elizabeth II,
Charles III has also become the new Head of State for the Land of kangaroos and surfing.
However, the truth is that the largest island in the world always throws a curveball.
In the 70's, Charles tried to be appointed Governor General of Australia and was
unsuccessful. Once married to Diana of Wales, his first great trip abroad took
them to the Pacific and it is said that it was precisely in Australia where Prince Charles'
jealousy towards Lady Di's popularity began. Then in the 90's he suffered an attack in Sydney
in the style of Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner. So don't be surprised if Australians are once
again making King Charles' life miserable because republicanism is on the rise in this country.
Well, the truth is that they already tried to do away with the monarchy in 1999, when they
held a referendum for establishing a republic... Although on that occasion the monarchy prevailed.
But since Charles III is not Elizabeth II, nobody can rule out that the Republicans
will return to the fray in the next few years. What is already a reality for the time being,
is that May 2022 also saw a significant shift in Australian politics.
N1(Albanese to be PM as Labor ousts Australian conservatives
after decade in power. – France 24) A lot has changed in Australia over
these nine years: And things have also changed in the world: for example, there is
a worldwide agreement to fight global warming, a worldwide pandemic killed 6.5 million people
and VisualPolitik is about to reach 1.3 million subscribers... Which we’ll talk about soon.
And on this channel we have dedicated several videos to the tensions
between Australia and China. Relations between the island
continent of Oceania and the Asian giant have deteriorated significantly in recent years.
However, it now appears that the new government of Anthony
Albanese is betting on adopting an entirely different strategy for dealing with China.
So the question is: What will this shift to the left in Australia translate into? How
might this change of government affect Canberra's relations with Beijing? Today on VisualPolitik we
are going to provide answers to these questions, but first let's take a look at a bit of history.
T1(FROM CLIMATE CHANGE TO POLICY CHANGE) The United Kingdom has the reputation,
but the real crusher of prime ministers is Australia. In the last 12 years,
6 different people have been in office. And at least half of them have been toppled for
trying to implement measures to combat climate change. As long as 13 years ago, Labor's Kevin
Rudd tried to pass an emissions trading scheme that was shot down by none other than the Greens,
who felt that stronger policies were needed. Its failure brought Julia Gillard to power. She
promised that her government would never create a carbon tax. And guess what? She passed one just a
year later. Result: her popularity plummeted and there was a Labor debacle at the polls.
Then the Liberal-Conservative coalition's time in power began with Tony Abbott who rejected
the climate change campaign point blank. He was followed by Malcolm Turnbull, who like Rudd was
ousted by his own party colleagues because of his plans to push for zero-emissions energy.
So you can see that this is a particularly sensitive issue in Australia.
Fossil fuels are Australia's great source of wealth. The island continent has become
the world's largest exporter of coal with a 29% share of the global market.
In addition, Australia has been a major beneficiary of the liquefied natural gas
revolution. Its gas production has tripled in the last 10 years and the
country has become the world's largest exporter of LNG with a more than 20%
share of all world exports. You could say it’s a real money-making machine.
But the exploitation of Australia's natural resources does not end there.
Mining accounts for 11% of GDP and generates 270,000 direct jobs.
What’s more, while the world has been talking for years about concepts such
as energy transition or decarbonization of the economy, in Oz half of the electricity is still
generated with coal. Take a look. Well VisualPolitik community,
this is the reality of Australia. Fossil fuels are part of what many call the Australian way of
life. So no one has wanted to do anything to change it until suddenly a series of natural
disasters have brought the environment to the forefront of the political news.
In recent years, Australia has suffered all kinds of catastrophes. Between 2019 and 2020
Australians suffered a wave of fires that swept through more than 24 million hectares,
an area of land equivalent to the entire United Kingdom. It is estimated that
the damage exceeded $60 billion. More recently, in February of 2022,
Australia experienced one of the worst floods in its history, with 22 deaths and $3 billion
in losses. In addition, half of its most precious and best-known natural treasure,
the Great Barrier Reef, has died as a result of warming ocean temperatures.
All these developments have made the environment a national concern. And today, if we talk about the
environment, we are talking about the debate about global warming. The thing is that all of a sudden,
all of this has had a huge electoral impact. In fact what cost Prime Minister Scott Morrison
his job was precisely not doing much of anything. The political buzzword in Australia is teal. It
means blue-green and the teals are the independent candidates who in
several constituencies have ended the traditional dominance of the Liberal-Conservative coalition.
They are so called because ideologically they could be perfectly placed on the Australian
right. But they are calling for stronger action against global warming, thereby claiming that
concern for the environment is not the exclusive preserve of the political left.
The rise of the Teals put an end to Morrison's chances for a second term.
And now it is the turn of Labor's Anthony Albanese or Albo,
as the new Australian Prime Minister is popularly known.
For example, in early September 2022, it secured passage of legislation raising
Australia's 2030 emissions reduction commitment from 2005 from 28% to 43%.
This new law is a big turnaround from Australia's traditional approach. So now what no one doubts
is that the Oceania giant is going to need a lot of investment in the coming years.
N2(Australia's Labor party has 82% renewables goal for 2030)
In 2021 renewables generated 29% of Australia's electricity. So there
is a long way to go in this area. Otherwise, Albo's economic program
offers nothing that could not be found in that of any Labor politician anywhere.
For example, he wants better social services and to raise the minimum wage by 5%.
However, it seems that much more important for the Australian economy will be whether or not
Albo succeeds in bringing relations with China back on track. So the question is:
How is Australia's new government moving forward? Listen up.
T2(THE THAW)
Australia and China have had trade relations since the 19th century. But it was with the awakening
of the Asian giant that economic ties between the two countries grew at an impressive pace.
Australia has everything and Beijing wants it: we are talking about food, coal, natural gas,
iron and all kinds of minerals. The Chinese economy devours every resource at its disposal and
Australia has been more than happy to provide it. Ten years ago China had already
become its largest trading partner. And then, suddenly, the Australian authorities
were caught in a complicated balancing act: the world's largest island was basing its prosperity
on trade with a communist dictatorship like China, while at the same time its security remained
dependent on its alliance with the United States. And, of course, China and the United States have
not exactly been getting along for a few years now. The question now is to put the two things
on a scale: prosperity versus security. The question is, which one carries more
importance for you? Because the truth is that Australia has always been very clear about that.
For example, Australia is one of the 5 members of Five Eyes,
a US-led intelligence alliance that also includes the United Kingdom, Canada and New
Zealand. These countries consider it a national security risk to use Chinese telecommunications
companies such as Huawei to be providers of 5G networks. For this reason, President Donald
Trump pushed for a veto of Huawei that its allies, including Australia, have followed.
But wait a minute, because if there is one thing that truly angered China,
it was that Australia called for an independent investigation into the origins of covid-19.
And guess what? Beijing's response was unprecedented:
it published a list of 14 complaints about Australia. The list complained about the veto
on Huawei and its insinuations about covid-19, but also about other issues such as Australia
rejecting its claims over the South China Sea or blaming China for being behind cyber-attacks.
This was what the communist regime put on the table. What remained hidden was the
implementation of an unofficial trade embargo that has remained in place to this day.
Suddenly Australian products stopped being bought by China except for those
such as iron ore and liquefied natural gas because, at the end of the day,
it is more complicated to find alternative suppliers.
Then, China publicly also failed to complain about something that also bothers Beijing a lot:
Australia's increasing closeness to its regional enemies.
You see, Australia is part of Quad, a diplomatic alliance with the United States, India and Japan
that has been conducting the Malabar joint naval exercise for precisely two years.
The purpose that unites them is to maintain a free and open Indo-Pacific, a fancy way for these
countries to say that they have to join forces to counter China's ambitions in the region.
Five Eyes, Quad and, for the past year, another alliance, AUKUS:
Australia, United Kingdom and United States. We have covered this here on VisualPolitik.
These countries are expanding their diplomatic and technological collaboration to provide
Australia with 8 nuclear-powered submarines and to jointly develop supersonic missiles.
For the Oceania giant, AUKUS represents a change of strategy. These new submarines will give it
two things: first, greater capacity to operate in the shipping lanes between the Strait of Malacca
and Taiwanese waters. And second, it will be able to launch much longer-range missiles.
In practice, this will position it as an international power.
However, AUKUS' biggest critics believe that this agreement puts US interests
first and unnecessarily provokes China. But in Australia they don't think so.
There is a strong consensus around AUKUS and, in fact, Australians believe that the country
should invest more in its armed forces. So Labor coming to power is not going to change anything.
What the change of government has brought is an opportunity to resume diplomatic contacts.
N3(China's envoy to Australia says 2 nations at 'new juncture'. – ABC News)
Several weeks after the Australian elections came the thaw. The defense and foreign ministers
of the two countries met, marking the first high-level talks in more than two years.
There is even speculation that the new prime minister may soon meet Xi Jinping. China insists
that there are many reasons for the Asian giant and the Oceania giant to be friends and partners,
rather than enemies and adversaries. But Prime Minister Albanese is demanding
more than just fine words from China. He wants facts, and right now that means
restoring the old trade ties between the two. The question is: Is China willing to lift them?
Well, it seems that Beijing right now is worried that sanctions on Russian coal will
increase competition to buy this mineral in international markets. This could mean higher
prices and difficulties in maintaining supply. So this favors China being willing to buy coal
from Australia again and lift part of the current sanctions. But wait a minute,
because there is another issue that could greatly increase the tension between the
Asian giant and the Oceania giant. What exactly am I talking about? Well, let's take a look at it.
T3(THE JUDGMENT OF SOLOMON)
AUKUS was like a direct torpedo of those who thought that Australia-China
relations could be easily redirected. Xi Jinping's regime raised its voice and
criticized Australia for betting on entering an arms race. However, don't think Beijing has stood
still. It has targeted smaller Pacific nations. Many countries in the region have ties with
the United States, Australia and New Zealand. But China is tempting them with a full trade,
aid and investment package. So it was only a matter of time before some such news broke.
N4(China signs security deal with Solomon Islands, alarming neighbors)
Under this agreement, the Solomon Islands could ask China to send
police and soldiers to help maintain order,
provide humanitarian aid and also to perform any other tasks agreed by both parties.
On the other hand, China could send its ships to call at the Solomon Islands when
needed but always with local approval. On the table is always the question that this
agreement could be the first step for China to establish a military base in this archipelago.
It is also true that we could argue about the strategic value of such an isolated outpost. In
any case, what is certain is that China has scored a point and that this agreement set
off all the alarm bells in Australia. The Morrison Government put pressure on the Solomon Islands to
prevent it from signing the agreement but failed. Now it is up to Labor to manage the situation.
Anthony Albanese has said he has a comprehensive plan for the Pacific. The new prime minister
wants to boost Australia's assistance to its neighboring countries. He has two
mechanisms to do this: more diplomacy and, above all, more money. Labor is
committed to increasing aid to Pacific Island countries and East Timor by $525 million.
The point is that after the Solomon Islands, China went after the entire Pacific. Its goal was clear:
persuade 10 countries to sign a regional agreement covering trade and security. China went so far
as to make its proposals public, but not all of them. Beijing talked about providing scholarships,
training, medical assistance... but not a word about its security proposals.
What China did not count on was that its worst enemy would be China itself.
Many Pacific leaders are disturbed by China's interest in linking economic and security
proposals. In this vein, David Panuelo, president of Micronesia, sent a letter warning his neighbors
that the Common Development Vision agreement could allow China to conduct massive surveillance
in the region. Look what he told them. C1("The Common Development Vision threatens
to bring a new Cold war era at best, and a World War at worst". – David Panuelo,
President of the Federated States of Micronesia) So China failed and did not succeed in making this
major agreement prosper. It did get less important ones with Samoa and Tonga. But
the truth is that Australia is now getting its act together and is maneuvering diplomatically.
In fact, it has given a boost to its relations with Fiji and also concluded an 8-year partnership
to boost development with Samoa itself. It is also moving to get more engagement from Washington with
the region. And, guess what? It looks like the Biden Administration has picked up the gauntlet.
N5(US, Australia and Allies Form New Pacific Island Partnership. Bloomberg)
We're talking about the Partners in the Blue Pacific initiative. A
new alliance announced in June that aims to help Pacific island nations
address everything from economic and climate change to more security-related issues.
This is undoubtedly the West's response to China's growing interest in the region. But
now the questions are for you: Do you think diplomacy will be enough to curb
China's influence in the Pacific? What should the new Australian government do?
You can leave me your answer in the comments. As always, if you found the video interesting,
please like it and don't forget to subscribe to VisualPolitik. All the best and see you next time.