Hi, everyone. I'm Evan. Ronnie,
with your CBS8 plus extended forecast,
we are checking in on Hurricane Hillary
as she continues to move N across the Baja
Peninsula and toward Southern California.
We want to let you know we are
recording this right now on Saturday,
Saturday afternoon. Specifically,
we want to give you the latest updates Now
between about this two and 5:00 PM stretch.
These statistics and numbers are going to
change and that's why we'll be giving you
constant updates throughout tonight and
then all the way through the day on Sunday,
Sunday, expected to be a very
pivotal day in terms of wind,
rain and the possibility of some flash
flooding across San Diego County in the
Greater Southern California region.
Let's get you clued in on
where Hillary is right now.
She is currently at a Category 2 storm.
She's just off slightly to the West,
and it's specifically more so the
northwest of Cabo San Lucas pushing
N So as she continues to push N,
she's encountering cooler ocean water.
That cooler ocean water is
breaking this storm apart.
So previously a Category 4,
now a Category 2 storm,
that category is measured by those
sustained wind speeds around the storm.
So Hillary is weakening.
Right now, winds are at 110 mph.
Just beyond 24 hours ago,
those winds were at 145 mph,
so they've dropped by about about
35 mph around the eye wall.
That's where that category comes from.
She'll drop down to a category one storm by
the time we get into that midnight hour,
And more specifically,
that could happen closer to about 10:11
PM Saturday night into Sunday morning.
As we start to see this storm push
farther N along the Baja Peninsula.
It's expected to hit San Diego and
Southern California as a tropical storm
and that'll be making landfall tomorrow
closer to 4:00 and 5:00 PM on Sunday.
But we have to keep in mind as well
that when it comes to the storm,
this is a front loaded storm.
The majority of the rain,
wind and that possibility for flash flooding,
those severe thunderstorms come on
the northern end of this storm.
So I want to break that down in
just a few minutes.
But let's start off with what
we see out there right now.
Showers are starting to spread
across the mountains and deserts.
They will begin to spread W from there.
So this is between about 2:00 and 4:00 PM.
As you can see,
a couple light scattered showers begin.
What we call Popcorn showers are
going to start to pop up and you
can already start to see them just
around the Mexico area and Sonata
starting to get a little bit of
rain over the next several hours.
But you could see how San Diego
County right now largely dry All
of that rain though surrounding us.
These are those outer bands of this storm.
In terms of watches,
warnings and advisories,
the tropical storm watch is in effect
that will remain through Monday morning.
We also now have a flood watch.
You can't see that because
of the coloring tone.
These are labeled in priority,
but Tropical Storm Watch is on top.
Right below that is a flood watch
that's in effect through 11:00 PM on
Monday and then a high wind warning
off to the east around the Imperial
County area stretching N also want
to take you into the greater Southern
California area and the Western US
where we see those flood related
concerns and wind related concerns
stretch all the way up north across the
state of Nevada and even incredibly so
across areas like Idaho for example.
You never would have thought that this
storm could continue to hold on to its
strength all the way up through Nevada,
but we do expect this to hold on to tropical
storm status through the Mojave Desert,
which is pretty incredible.
Now tropical storm status is severe,
but much less severe than the category
two status it's at now and especially
less severe than the category 4 status
it was once at over the open ocean.
We are grateful to see currently
that this storm is breaking down.
It is doing exactly what we expected
and what we had hoped it would
do and what it's doing while it's
breaking down is it's speeding up.
And I know these are two differing ideas,
but what we're talking about in terms
of its speeding up is the actual
movement of the hurricane itself.
The entire storm, the eye of a storm,
is moving faster.
And that's a good thing because it
means we have less of a tendency
for this storm to be able to stall
across the Baja Peninsula or across
San Diego or Southern California.
So winds are breaking down and
slowing down around the eyewall.
The storm itself is moving north
and it's speeding up.
These are two very good things to
see and lead us to believe that
this will continue to follow within
the bounds of what we expected.
Still looking at critical storms,
storm related damage across
the mountains and deserts,
we're talking 5710 inches of
rain closer to the coast.
In inland, we're looking at 2 to 3 inches.
We're also talking of course about
wind and about factors beyond that,
right thunderstorms,
severe thunderstorms that
could be popping up.
We're also talking about surf.
So there's a lot of factors that
kind of go into this at once again,
currently a category two hurricane,
it is moving.
Look at that Northwest at 17 mph.
Earlier yesterday,
this thing was moving at about 9:00 mph.
So Hillary was moving very slowly.
She's gained a bit of momentum in terms
of how fast she's moving up the coast.
But the winds around the eyewall,
the damaging winds are slowing down.
That's a very good sign.
285 miles just off of the coast of Baja.
We continue to watch it push N
It'll be a category one. Again.
Some models have that happening at midnight,
others closer to 11:00 PM.
Either way, you can expect
it probably within that hour.
11:00 PM to midnight on Saturday
night keeps moving up the coast.
Let's talk about San Diego.
It is expected to hit around
the northern Baja Peninsula
closer to early Sunday morning.
The most intense winds and rain will
come following 11 AM on Sunday through
its landfall at about 4:00 and 5:00 PM.
It'll be way up to the north of
LA by the time we get into Sunday
night at 11:00 PM And then from
there all this activity tapers off.
Here's a close to midnight on Saturday night.
This is San Diego County that we have on
the map here and a little bit outside of it.
I want to show you how much that rain really
increases in intensity through Sunday.
You see how the brunt of that yellow,
orange, red tones, those started to really
push through through the day on Sunday.
So when we're talking about the
time that you should be at home,
you should be inside of your house,
not traveling on the roads,
not out in the ocean water.
All of these things we emphasize
during the day.
Sunday morning, tonight, Sunday,
all day.
There's really no other time
that we strongly,
strongly suggest that you are in your home.
We continue on through Sunday.
You can see how the showers on the back
end are still with pretty decent strength,
but we pause this at Monday at 5:00
AM and we see that a lot of this
has tapered off this activity.
Right now we see this storm moving
so much faster that it's landfall
is expected to be faster.
About 24 hours ago we expected landfall to
come closer to late Sunday 1011 midnight.
Now we have that moved all the
way up to about 4:00 and 5:00 PM.
It's a pretty decent speed that this
storm is starting to gain on us.
High resolution models show that
rain really spreading from east
to West and you can see those more
intense yellow and orange bands of
precipitation starting to move in.
Here's Saturday at 10:00 PM.
This is a very sensitive model,
so there is the possibility that where
you see those lighter green tones,
there's not as much activity happening.
But where you see the yellow
and darker green,
that's where we will start to see a
little bit more moderate activity.
This is going to pick up from 10:00 PM
Saturday all the way through early Sunday.
Here's 1:00 AM Sunday.
Those showers continue moving to the north.
Embedded heavier thunderstorms possible
within all of this and then watch
as we pass all the way into 5:30 AM.
This is when wind is going to start
to strengthen during the Sunday
morning stretch and where we start
to see the coastline.
Under that chance of more moderate
to heavy bands of showers,
if we push all the way to when that eye
of the storm is about 6 hours out from us,
this is where the strongest winds and the
strongest rains are expected to take place.
We see that across the mountains and deserts,
things are especially starting to pick up.
You've got some red tones bleeding
in there across your inland valleys,
even toward your coastline.
And then if we Fast forward from 10:00
AM all the way through about 1:32 PM,
everything turns over to that
yellow red tone.
And that's where we see the possibility of
some of these rain rates coming down at
about half an inch to a full inch an hour,
especially across the mountains and deserts,
mountains and deserts.
The eastern facing slopes of the mountains
are where we're seeing the most concern.
Mountain Laguna looking at a forecast
of about 7 to 10 inches of rain
along the coastline and inland,
we're looking at about two
to three inches in total.
We have been able to handle that before.
What we're more so concerned about
close to the coast and inland
on top of the rain is the wind.
Wind is going to be a huge component of
this storm across the mountains and deserts.
Flash flooding is going to be the primary
component that we're focused in on,
although it will still be incredibly
windy and just raining in general.
So flash flooding in conjunction
conjunction with just typical river levels,
everything that we would normally
be concerned about in a longer
stretching spanning storm.
I want to continue this clock
all the way through landfall.
So I'll push this through about 4:00
PM and the bulk of this storm now
continues traveling N we start to see
it break down Sunday 4:00 PM Look at that.
Showers could start to taper
off closer to San Diego,
down through the South Bay and really
continue tapering off around that stretch.
And that's where we see pushing
into Monday morning,
much drier stretch on the way.
Let's talk about winds now.
So at this point we see that as
of late tonight the mountains will
start to see their 20 to 30 mile
per hour gusts pick up.
These wind arrows are showing the
direction of the wind Right now
all of that wind is flowing South.
It's moving from north to South.
So these are northerly winds.
And what we're seeing is that all of
this wind is moving from areas of
higher pressure to areas of lower pressure.
The center of the storm has the
lowest pressure,
and that air naturally wants to move
from high pressure to low pressure.
So it keeps moving toward the storm.
It's moving from the north to the South.
And then as this storm starts to approach,
you're going to be able to see
these arrows move around a bit.
Winds start to pick up tomorrow morning,
50s even, near 60 mile per hour
range for gusts across the mountains.
Purple is the color we
are most concerned about.
Purple shows upwards of 40 mile per hour
gusts toward 50-60 mile per hour stretch.
So I want to pause this
as we get into 2:00 PM.
This is just ahead of the eye of the storm.
Notice all of these arrows are now
flowing right towards the eye,
the eye right to the South of us.
We're starting to see across
the mountains and deserts,
4050 mile per hour consistent winds.
Fallbrook.
Same situation at 40.
By the time we get to 2:00 PM,
where the coast is is where we're
most concerned about that damage
because the coast is not exactly used
to 3040 fifty mile per hour gusts.
Alpine 52.
Some of these numbers of course
are a little bit more conservative.
There is the possibility that we
will see gusts upwards of 6070 mph,
especially closer to your mountains
and deserts.
Let's let's watch as that eye
moves N look at that stretch.
Now that wind is starting to point north
as the eye of the storm moves overhead.
So 8:00 PM now it's all moving
toward the center of low pressure.
Winds have shifted direction
pretty dramatically.
And then as we go into late Sunday,
early Monday,
all that wind starts to taper off.
We calm down quite a bit.
Winds are not quite as active
for late Sunday, early Monday.
I want to show you that 8
day forecast and how today,
Saturday,
Sunday and Monday are these three
critical days that we are tuned into
after late Sunday into early Monday,
we'll see a few remaining
showers tapering off.
Temperatures are going to be coolest
in that about Monday stretch and
then we'll start to see those
temperatures rebound and climb once again.
A lot of sunshine,
a lot of more moderate temperatures
as we get into the beginning
and middle portion of next week.
Temperatures balancing out toward
about average.
Very warm right now in some spots.
So notice that 85 degree high
versus dropping down to 78,
climbing again 89 by Monday and
then back to the triple digits,
incredibly so sunshine and triple
digits out there by Friday,
Saturday for our local deserts.
Mountains are going to be seen
the 80s at that time.
So I know this is a lot of
information to be taken in.
I want to point out just a couple
of things and kind of give you
the overarching theme.
The big emphasis that we have right
now is that the storm is moving
faster than originally anticipated.
It will be out of our hair by
Monday morning and Monday afternoon.
That is faster than we originally thought.
We originally thought landfall would
be closer to midnight at Sunday.
Now it is closer to four, 5:00 PM on Sunday.
This is great news.
That means it is a faster moving
storm and has
less of a possibility of stalling.
It's also great news to see this
this eye wall breaking down.
Less defined and eyewall and less
impactful winds but still expected
to make landfall in San Diego as a
tropical storm 4:00 to 5:00 PM on Sunday.
Second thing that I want to know
here is that this is the time.
If you haven't already prepared to do so,
I will and no one here at CBS8 will
make any apologies for encouraging
people to be prepared for this storm.
It is critical that you over
prepare now and that way when this
storm arrives you are good to go.
If it does not pan out as intense in
some spots because they're going to be
localized heavier spots than others.
Keep in mind you're still left there.
Hopefully if you've prepared
with a full tank of gas with an
emergency prepared NIT kit,
preparedness kit with non perishables.
We've also suggested that you keep
cash on hand because there is a
possibility of credit card machines,
for example, going down.
So if you would like to know how to prepare,
you wanted to cbsa.com.
It has more info on all
the preparedness underway.
We know that there are sandbags
being piled up.
Please secure any outdoor
furniture that you have that could
possibly blow around in this wind,
because Sunday is going to be the day.
If you're making travel plans over
the course of the day on Sunday,
drive very carefully.
Try to keep those roads clear
for emergency vehicles.
We want to make sure that Sunday,
if everyone's in their homes,
it will go a lot smoother than
if everyone's out on the roads
not taking it quite as seriously.
So we encourage you to take this
seriously because we again are not
going to make apologies for having
you over prepared for a storm that
we have not seen in a century.
It is important that we are ready for this.
Two to three inches close to the coast,
5 to 7 inches localized,
heavier accumulations of 10 inches
across our mountains and deserts.
That's in this 48 hour stretch,
making flash flooding easily a possibility.
There's some models that push
rainfall accumulations to about
a foot from Mount Laguna.
That is an incredible amount
of rain coming in 48 hours,
so we're going to keep monitoring the storm.
Again,
this is being recorded right now on
Saturday evening about four 5:00
PM We will keep you up to date
here and on our website, cbs8.com.
You can also download the CBS8 app.
We'll be giving you these continuous
updates all night and into
early tomorrow morning.
It will be a long span that
we have these up again.
For more of the latest CBS
8.com in the CBS8 app.
We hope you have made your preparations.
The storm is about to make its way to us.
I'm meteorologist Evan Irani.
Have a good day.