I'd probably want to flush those stops or run those stops below 1675.
Yeah, I'm not sure they'll be able to, but I think they're probably going to try to. So,
you know, a little bit more downside risk in gold and silver, but regardless,
I think these are great buying opportunities for both Metals.
Yeah. As a technical analyst I like to deal in probabilities now predictions.
And I think the probabilities are likely that we've seen the lows in silver.
I'm less confident of that.
Gold.
And the reason I say that is for a couple of reasons,
number one, I mean, silver has fallen a lot further than gold has.
And then when you look at,
like the commitment of Traders Report with the bankers are doing the smart money,
I mean,
they're at this c0t structure right now is historically, bullish.
It doesn't mean we turn right away,
but when the co T is structured like this, we've only seen the commercial Banks, net,
long one other time and it proceeded a really nice rally.
So all the conditions are in place,
you know.
So, I think we're clearly in the by Zone, does that?
We turn right away.
No, it doesn't.
But, you know, like in Gold,
the co T is kind of bullish, but it's not like fully washed out like in silver.
So if I'm thinking like a banker,
I'd probably want to flush those stops or run those stops below 1675.
Yeah, I'm not sure they'll be able to, but I think they're probably going to try to so,
you know,
a little bit more downside risk in gold and silver. But regardless,
I think these are great buying opportunities for both
metals and we should be prepared for that.
And that's why it's important as a golden silver,
investor to really And like the things you're talking about,
have a deep fundamental conviction because when you understand the
math and the reality behind what's happening in the physical Market,
it becomes easier to with withstand these draw Downs. I mean,
personally,
I don't hope I don't want to see if you know another three dollar pullback and silver,
and I think it's unlikely but it honestly,
I wouldn't lose any sleep over it.
But what does bother me is I know a lot of new retail Traders and investors. Say,
off forget this I'm out and that, you know,
that's the kind of people we want to help that really need to hold on to their physical silver.
The bankers that they don't need to hold on to it.
So, you know, that's why I don't want to see the,
you know, more weakness, but you know, another 2-3 months of sideways grind,
wouldn't be surprising.
And the next big Catalyst,
I think we all know is probably some kind of fed pivot and you don't from my perspective,
that can mean a lot of different things to a lot of poor people.
You know, some people say oh the that's ridiculous.
The feds going to Pivot and I think what they they think we're talking
about our I'm talking about I'd love to get your take on.
It is like the feds going to announce tomorrow just full-on QE on.
Odds again and going to immediately to negative interest rates.
I mean I think we're eventually going there.
But to me the sign of a pivot is when they start to slow the pace of these increases,
you know, when they go to a 50 basis,
point rate hike and then a 25 and then they say hey we're going to pause to me,
that's the pivot and I think gold and silver going to really start to move higher.
Once we see those kind of things happen to me
that's the pivot and that's the next big Catalyst.
Well I think the the FED has a choice as do,
you know, Central planners around the world?
Do you want to deflationary implosion or do you want an inflationary depression?
Those are Two choices on the table here.
I don't really see much middle ground and in the ultimately precious metals will benefit
from either a deflationary, Great Depression, type event or an inflationary depression.
I think we're going to see the ladder and you know three reasons
I think they're going to eventually have to Pivot.
I'm in perfect agreement with everything you just said there.
I think they're probably continue to raise rates until something breaks,
you're always reactive, they're never proactive,
right?
So they're going to wait and they're going to and the
reason why is because then people beg for it,
you know if they were Just roll out, QE right now.
I mean, everyone's going to say, oh, look at this Reckless fed, you know,
and blame them on, and further blame them for the inflationary repercussions.
But, you know, you get the stock market down, another 20-30 percent, and housing,
prices collapsing.
All these supposedly free market, people on Fox Business and everything,
they're going to be begging for QE and then the federals in and looks like a hero and
that's coming. And that's one reason because, you know, to save the economy,
boost asset prices,
but it to other reasons that really don't get talked about that much one
is Can't tax deflation in a deflation environment, tax tax, receipts fall,
and we need those taxes.
And
so you know, that's one reason.
And another is to fund these deficits who is going to fund trillion-dollar deficits plus
deficits got that go out in perpetuity and are only going to increase with the autopilot
unfunded liabilities like Social Security. Medicare China is stepping back, you know,
Saudi Arabia, they're stepping back.
Who's going to, who's going to fund these trade deficits?
And of course, the Federal Reserve is always the buyer of last.
Resort and those are reasons why a pivot is eventually coming.
When that happens, I don't know. It could be three, four months down the road or longer.
I don't know if you tax the wealthy.
I don't know what the numbers are, but it's like you double their tax rates is still,
doesn't even put a small dent in the unfunded contingent liabilities.
We have right,
you know, it just makes it look like they're doing something but,
you know, this tax issue is something. I'm so glad you've been talking about this lately.
I know you did some interviews with. I can't remember their names,
but they specialize in tax plan, Nathan and Amanda from Independence. Yeah.
Awesome interviews and it's such great information because we're taking defensive
measures by buying physical metal, stored outside. The banking system,
great thing to do another defensive measure to take is do
some tax planning because attacks tsunami is coming.
Yes,
tax rates are high. They're unfair. I don't agree with it.
But historically like the top, marginal rates are low and they are,
they are can bet your bottom dollar. Tax rates are going to be going higher, not lower.
And there's the one thing, the elite or whatever you want to call. Calm,
do the people who make the rules, who write the rules of the game,
and there was leave loopholes for themselves are.
So, it's kind of, like, you got to find those loopholes. And most of us, you know,
we got jobs and lives to live who's going to go figure.
Find all these loopholes but find the people who exit, who are experts in it,
and I know you've interviewed a couple of them, so such a great thing to go.
Maybe plant a seed right here to go back and look at those interviews you done.
Yeah, good. Look at Independence money.
So do you have some technical charts for his kind of
show us what's going on in the market? I know guys,
we all love this
Yeah. My trading trading view has been so reliable for me over the years.
I don't think I've ever seen this happen, but I'm just getting a spinning wheel.
You can spend well, a death, I've seen that happen on trading DNA,
use some other ones I use stock charts and it just happens, you know? Yeah.
But I can describe it to you, which hear, you know, if you're not into technicals,
maybe just the verbal description might be more helpful with gold.
If you go back to like 2018,
you can draw a very clear,
it's almost perfect textbook uptrend line and we've come back and tap that thing over the
past four years four or five times and we're out there now and trying to bounce from it.
I mean it's right there hanging by a thread and that uptrend line coincides
with 1675 horizontal supports, that's a Confluence of support.
So anyone who looks at charts is seeing that to include the algorithms and institutions
who really Drive these paper markets like you were talking about,
right? So like we're saying, you know, those commercial Bankers who are still, net short,
probably want to run those stops.
We'll see if they can if they if they do,
we could see a quick Spike lower followed by a quick rebound,
that's kind of a baseline expectation.
But silver I think that's already happened.
I think really in silver downside risk is just so minimal relative to the upside potential.
Charts are telling me. We're at it. We're at an extreme measure it in different ways.
Now things can get more extreme, but it's like a beach ball. You a push you underwater.
How far can you get that thing down? I think we're pretty far.
It reminds me almost of like March 2020.
There was a day on Monday morning,
when silver dropped in life's like 12 bucks in the Futures Market.
But even going into that, it was like hanging at sixteen dollars or something like that,
1670 and it Like this all we're just beaten to a pulp and then boom,
you got this for dollar down day but then that marks the low and it was almost
like a V recovery. So that is like, a possibility that I'm yeah. Keep open, what,
one more point on your what you're saying about the silver miners, what they tend to do,
when periods of suppress prices like this is they do what's called hydrating,
so they'll great, they'll mine, their highest grade cheapest online.
So what that does that further skews the supply-demand?
And balance down the road because you're getting the, you know,
the high-grade stuff never does. And that's a really good point. Yeah.
So just long at the longer price stays low, you know,
the more distorted to supply-demand imbalance,
gets for the future.
I mean,
you know,
that's not not trying to blow Sunshine.
A river like this sucks that Silver's blow $20 here in Lawrence, 2022, and inflation like this,
but you know that beach ball is just getting pushed further
and further down and it's gonna pop it just matter what