US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi is on her way on a trip to Asia
where she is expected to make stops at Singapore, Japan and South Korea.
But more crucially, all eyes will be on the latter part of her journey,
to see if she goes ahead with her planned trip to Taiwan.
The US has not clarified whether Nancy Pelosi will indeed land in Taipei and meet Taiwan’s leaders.
But importantly this issue was raised by Chinese President Xi Jinping during his virtual meeting
with US president Joe Biden, earlier this week clearly indicating the seriousness.
In this video Defense Updates analyzes
why US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's Taiwan visit could lead to aerial confrontation
between the US & China ? Let's get started.
President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping
discussed Taiwan at length on Thursday in a more than two-hour phone call.
The island is the biggest flash point in the relationship between Beijing and Washington.
China views Taiwan as a breakaway province and wants to bring it to its fold in the future.
Taiwan is currently a self-governed democracy.
Though Taiwan has no formal diplomatic ties with the U.S, it remains an important ally.
U.S relation with Taiwan is governed by the Taiwan Relations Act.
The Taiwan Relations Act neither confirms that the USA will intervene militarily
if China invades Taiwan nor does it relinquishes it, maintaining a strategic ambiguity.
When it comes to Pelosi's visit, Xi warned Biden by telling him ‘not to play with fire’
Neither side said in statements whether Pelosi’s possible Taiwan stop came up.
But a source having the know-how of the discussion said Xi made clear to Biden
how big a problem it would be for Pelosi to visit Taiwan -- and Biden made clear to Xi that Pelosi
makes her own decisions as a speaker, and that he can’t control another branch of government.
According to Politico, Pentagon officials are preparing for Pelosi’s trip
potentially indicating that fighter escorts will be present with other aerial platforms.
If Pelosi decides to make a stop at Taiwan,
she will be landing in Taipei on a US military aircraft.
Chinese state media commentator and Global Times editor Hu Xijin
on Twitter threatened that Pelosi will be ‘forcibly dispelled’.
If US fighter jets escort Pelosi’s plane into Taiwan, it is an invasion. The Chinese military
has the right to forcibly dispel Pelosi’s plane and the US fighter jets, including firing warning
shots and making the tactical movement of obstruction. If ineffective, then shoot them
down," Xijin wrote in a tweet, which was removed later due to a violation of Twitter rules.
In his editorial, Hu said that Pelosi will pay the cost of ‘her performance’:
“In a word, we have ways to raise the risk of Pelosi’s “performance" through the visit,
greatly increase the cost of her performance, and boost the price she has to pay. Let Pelosi
deeply realize that Taiwan island is not a place where she can run wild."
Viewers may note that Global Times is essentially the Chinese Communist
Party or CCP mouthpiece and is used to further the agenda of the party.
It is interesting to note that Pelosi had angered CCP with her 1991 visit to Beijing.
On that occasion, Pelosi was once chased away from Tiananmen Square after she
unfurled a banner without the permission of her Chinese hosts when she visited Beijing
two years after the CCP crushed protestors.
In 1989, Chinese troops armed with assault rifles
and accompanied by tanks had fired at the demonstrators.
Pelosi has got strong support from several people including former US secretary of state Mike
Pompeo, who said if required he will accompany Nancy Pelosi on her possible trip to Taiwan.
Pompeo tweeted,
“Nancy, I’ll go with you. I’m banned in China, but not freedom-loving Taiwan. See you there,"
Pompeo also told Biden to not give in to Xi’s threats:
“CCP-mouthpiece The Global Times threatens Pelosi’s plane will be shot down if she visits
Taiwan. President Biden must give full support to this visit. Don’t be weak and cave to the demands
of petty warmongers and dictators in Beijing. Support the freedom-loving people of Taiwan.
The House Foreign Affairs Chair Gregory Meeks, a Democrat from
New York said China should concentrate on answering for their human rights abuses
in Xinjiang province. “We can’t be bullied by anyone," Meeks was quoted as saying by Politico
Viewers may note that last year a bipartisan team,
that included Democrats Tammy Duckworth, Christopher Coons and Republican Dan Sullivan
visited Taipei for around three hours where they met President Tsai Ing-wen.
The visit carried a message since the senators traveled on a U.S. Air Force
C-17 Globemaster III strategic transport aircraft,
rather than an unmarked private jet as is generally the case for senior U.S. visitors.
That time too China reacted angrily but didn't actually do much.
Similarly, US Navy warships regularly sail through areas of the South China
Sea that are claimed by China as part of a Freedom of Navigation operation
or FONOP. While China makes verbal noise, it refrains from taking any aggressive steps.
Nancy Pelosi's visit is much more high profile since she is a US House Speaker and there is a
well-publicized inhospitable history. It remains to be seen how things pan out.