>> WE’LL ZOOM IN ON THIS FORECAST TRACK AND REALLY HONE IN ON THAT TUESDAY, WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME.
BECAUSE THAT IS THE TIME FRAME
IN WHICH THE HURRICANE CENTER
IS SHOW INGING THE SYSTEM COMIN
OFF THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF
CUBA AND HEADING UP SOMEWHERE
IN THE VICINITY OF THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.
CHECK OUT THE INTENSITY
FORECAST.
IT IS FORECAST TO GET A LOT
STRONGER, A CATEGORY 3
HURRICANE SOMEWHERE HERE RIGHT
ABOUT THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO.
SO CLEARLY, THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY THE FARTHER OUT IN
TIME YOU GO.
BUT BASED ON THIS FORECAST
CONE, IT’S ONE OF THOSE
SITUATIONS WHERE WE HERE IN
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE KEYS
DEFINITELY NEED TO BE THINKING
ABOUT OUR PLAN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
THE KEYS MAY START TO GET SOME
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS AS
EARLY AS TUESDAY, DEPENDING ON
THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM.
AND EVEN WITH THE CORE, THE
EYE STAYING OFFSHORE, WE KNOW
THAT THE IMPACTS FROM A
TROPICAL STORM CAN EXTEND FAR
AWAY FROM THE CENTER OF THE
ACTUAL STORM.
SO THIS IS THE LATEST
PROJECTED PATH.
OF COURSE, WE TOO ARE LOOKING
AT THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE
RIGHT A LONGLONG ALONG -- THES
CLUSTERED CLOSE TOGETHER.
DIVERGING SOME WHAT, BUT THESE
PARTICULAR MODELS ARE
BASICALLY SHOWING THE SAME
GENERAL TREND.
AND THAT IS TAKING THE SYSTEM
NEAR SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE
KEYS AROUND THAT TUESDAY,
WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME.
LET’S BRING IN OUR HURRICANE
SPECIALIST AND STORM SURGE
EXPERT MICHAEL LOWRY.
MICHAEL, WITH THESE LATEST
TRACK GUIDANCE MODEL RUNS, DO
YOU ANTICIPATE ANY BIG CHANGES
IN THAT FORECAST CONE WHEN WE
GET THE NEW UPDATE NEXT HOUR?
>> HEY BETTY, I DON’T.
THE MODELS HAVEN’T REALLY
CHANGED TODAY.
STILL A THREAT HERE IN SOUTH
FLORIDA AND SOMETHING WE’LL
NEED TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE TO.
TAKE A LOOK AT THE VISIBLE
SATELLITE PICTURE.
WE’RE GONNA STEP YOU THROUGH
THIS THIS AFTERNOON.
YOU CAN SEE RIGHT NOW WHAT
WE’RE DEALING WITH IS A PRETTY
DISORGANIZED SYSTEM WE HAVE A
GENERAL SPIN OF THE CLOUDS
HERE, SOME CONVECTION TO THE
WEST BUT NOTHING ORGANIZED
YET.
WE HAVEN’T SEEN THE CONVECTION
COALESCE WHERE YOU WOULD SEE A
DEVELOPING SYSTEM.
WE HAVE A LOT OF WIND SHEER IN
THE ATMOSPHERE.
WINDS FROM THE UPPER PART OF
THE ATMOSPHERE THAT ARE
RAINING DOWN FROM FIONA TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER OUR TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.
WE HAVE HIGH PRESSURE STEERING
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THIS. WE
HAVE A DIP IN THE JET STREAM
COMING ALONG, EXPECTED TO
BECOME TROPICAL STORM HERMINE
OR IAN.
MORE THAN LIKELY IAN.
IT LOOKS LIKE THE DISTURBANCE
THERE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC
IS GOING TO BE COME HERMINE
FIRST.
IT IS GONNA DIP IN THE NORTH
AND THAT WILL BRING IT TOWARD
FLORIDA.
THERE IS SOME QUESTION ON HOW
SHARPLY THAT TURNS.
THAT’S WHAT WE’LL BE WATCHING
INTO NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
LOOKING AT THE TRACK MODELS
RIGHT NOW, BETTY, WE HAVE A
LOT OF MODELS.
THIS IS MONDAY, TUESDAY OF
NEXT WEEK HEADED TOWARD
FLORIDA, THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
FLORIDA.
DEPENDING ON WHERE THE CENTER
OF THIS ULTIMATELY ENDS UP IS
GOING TO MATTER IN TERMS OF
HOW QUICKLY THAT JET STREAM
PULLS THIS TOWARDS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA.
WE’RE SQUARE IN THE THREAT
HERE OVER THE COMING DAYS AND
SOMETHING WE’RE GONNA NEED TO
OBVIOUSLY CLOSELY FOLLOW WITH
A STRENGTHENING STORM.
ALSO KEEP IN MIND THAT THE
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
COULD REACH THE SOUTHERN
FLORIDA PENINSULA AS EARLY AS