At the start of July 2022, violent demonstrations broke out
in Karakalpakstan - a large, but little-known and long-neglected, region of Uzbekistan.
Prompted by government proposals to remove its autonomy, at least 18 people died
and well over 200 were injured in serious clashes with security forces.
But while the government has now seemingly backed down on its proposals,
has it unleashed something that it may find hard to control in future?
Hello and welcome. If you're new to the channel, my name is James Ker-Lindsay and
here I take an informed look at international relations, conflict, security, and statehood.
Around the world, there are many groups calling for independence.
But just how and why do these separatist movements arise?
In truth, numerous factors tend to feed it.
Sometimes, a particular ethnic or religious group sees itself as
fundamentally different and wants its own homeland.
At other times, it may be driven by economic issues.
A region might feel that it's being deprived unjustly of its natural resources,
such as water or oil.
Alternatively,
it may believe that it's been neglected and underfunded by the central government.
Sometimes, the wish to break away is fed by political factors.
A people might feel that they're being denied a say over their own affairs.
Occasionally, it can even go the other way.
A self-ruling region can find its autonomy challenged, prompting calls for separation.
This came to international attention at the start of July 2022 when reports circulated
that the government of Uzbekistan planned to abolish the autonomy of Karakalpakstan.
In the days that followed, the once seemingly quiet region descended into deadly violence.
But what exactly happened? And how seriously should we take it?
Uzbekistan lies in Central Asia.
To its north and west is Kazakhstan.
And Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan lie to its east.
To its south, it neighbours Turkmenistan and Afghanistan.
At 450,000 square kilometres,
or 175,000 square miles, it's the 56th largest member of the United Nations.
The population currently stands at around 31 million.
According to the most recent census,
around 84 percent are ethnic Uzbeks and five percent are Tajiks.
Kazakhs, Russians and Karakalpaks each represent a little over two percent.
Around 90 percent are Muslim.
The country is divided into 14 political units.
As well as 12 regions, the country's capital, Tashkent, is an independent city.
Then there's one autonomous republic: Karakalpakstan.
At 160,000 square kilometres, or around 35 percent of the country,
it's Uzbekistan's largest single unit.
However, with just 1.8 million inhabitants, it has just six percent of the population.
Of this, Uzbeks and Karakalpaks make up around a third each.
Kazakhs are just over a quarter.
First recorded in the 16th century, little is
really known about the exact origins of the Karakalpak people.
While they speak a Turkic language, like the ethnic Uzbeks,
it's more closely related to neighbouring Kazakh.
However, our story really begins with the Russian imperial conquest
of Central Asia in the late 19th century.
In the mid-1920s, following the Russian Revolution and the creation of the Soviet Union,
various national groups were defined and given their own territory.
This saw Karakalpakstan become an autonomous oblast,
or self-governing province, of the Kazakhstan Autonomous Soviet Socialist Republic - in
turn a territorial unit of the top-level Russian Socialist Federative Soviet Republic.
However, just five years later Karakalpakstan was
formally transferred back to Russian authority, becoming a Russian autonomous republic in 1932.
This lasted until 1935, when it was again transferred;
his time becoming an autonomous republic of the Uzbekistan Soviet Socialist Republic.
In the decades that followed, Karakalpakstan
slid into relative obscurity until the collapse of the Soviet Union, in 1991.
While the prevailing principle in international law
was that the lower order units, such as autonomous republics and oblasts,
should remain a part of the Soviet republics they'd been part of prior to the USSR's
disintegration, several territorial disputes nevertheless emerged across the Soviet Union.
However, in the case of Karakalpakstan - the only autonomous republic in Central Asia - a possible
dispute was averted when it was allowed to retain its status within the new Republic of Uzbekistan.
Crucially, and very unusually in international relations,
it was also given the explicit right to secede under the constitution.
This makes Uzbekistan one of the very few countries
in the world that formally permits a part of its territory to break away.
Following independence, Karakalpakstan
again appeared to fade from view as Uzbekistan came under the rule of Islam Karimov.
Having been the last president of the Uzbek Soviet Socialist Republic, and head
of the Uzbek Communist Party, he ruthlessly cemented his control over the new country.
Establishing a reputation as one of the toughest and most brutal autocrats in
Central Asia - a region that became notorious for its authoritarian leaders - his regime
was accused of gross human rights abuses, including torture and extrajudicial killings.
All this came to international attention in 2005
when Uzbek security forces violently quashed unrest in the eastern city of Andijan.
While the official death toll stands at 187, many believe that hundreds more were in fact killed.
But, despite all this, there was little sign of any tensions in Karakalpakstan during these years.
This was perhaps surprising given the massive problems the region faced.
Without doubt, the single most significant of these was the disappearance of the Aral Se.
Once the fourth largest inland body of water in the world,
covering an estimated 68,000 square kilometres,
in the 1960s Soviet authorities began using its fresh water for massive agricultural projects.
As it shrank over the following decades - and it's now just one-tenth of its
original size - Karakalpakstan faced devastating economic, environmental, and social consequences.
Entire sectors - including fishing, agriculture and industry - collapsed
and previously fertile areas became arid, dusty, and heavily polluted.
As a result, the population began to suffer as adult and child mortality
rates shot up and people were forced to search for opportunities elsewhere;
either in other parts of Uzbekistan or abroad, including in neighbouring Kazakhstan.
And yet, despite the disaster that befell Karakalpakstan,
and the widely acknowledged indifference that the government showed towards the region's plight,
there was little outward sign of rebellion.
So, what sparked the crisis that emerged in July 2022?
To explain it, we need to go back to 2016.
After almost 30 years of dictatorial rule,
Islam Karimov died and was replaced by Shavkat Mirziyoyev, the country's prime minister.
Despite his role in the previous administration,
and the fact that the subsequent election confirming him in power
failed to meet democratic standards, the new president soon came to be seen as a reformer.
He quickly introduced measures to improve the country's human rights record
and make Uzbekistan more investment friendly.
All this earned him significant international praise.
However, over the past couple of years the situation has started to
look less promising as the initial progress has seemingly stalled.
In some cases, reforms even seem to have been reversed.
More to the point, there's also been growing speculation that the president
already into his second and final five-year term is looking to stay in power.
It was with this in mind that news emerged at the end of June 2022 that the package
of constitutional changes was being put together that would allow this to happen.
Crucially, though, the proposed amendments
also included stripping Karakalpakstan of its autonomy and its right of secession.
As word got round, protesters gathered in the centre of Nukus, the Karakalpak capital.
While it's unclear exactly what sparked the clashes - with reports suggesting
that was started when a local journalist was arrested - once fighting did erupt the police
quickly resorted to heavy-handed, and in many cases lethal, violence.
Tensions were also heightened by news that the country had shut down internet access to the
region, thus feeding concerns that the government was carrying out another Andijan-type massacre.
But as serious as the fighting was, it was soon contained.
More to the point, the government was quick to try to dampen down the causes of the unrest.
Visiting the city the next day,
Mirziyoyev insisted that the proposals had merely been put out for consultations.
No decision had been made.
However, given the obvious strength of feeling over the issue, he announced
that any amendments to the status of Karakalpakstan had now been dropped.
Emphasising the close ties between the Uzbek and Karakalpak peoples - ties he
stressed had been built up over centuries - he promised that any changes in future would
only happen following public discussions.
While it may be tempting to think that the matter is now over, is this really the case?
Of course, it's difficult to say.
For a start, it's important to begin with a note of caution.
As serious as the violence was, and this was clearly the worst outbreak of fighting in the
country in almost 20 years, there seems to be no evidence to say that this was part of
an organised uprising - or that it marks the start of something more prolonged or serious.
Likewise, it's important not to think of this as an ethnic conflict - or at least not yet.
It may well be centred on wider societal frustration
about the wilful neglect Karakalpakstan has suffered since Soviet times.
However, for anyone familiar with secessionist movements,
the recent developments in Karakalpakstan give rise for concern.
Indeed it bears many of the hallmarks of a separatist movement in the making.
This is an area that clearly has a sense of its own cultural identity
coupled with a long-standing tradition of self-rule that's now seemingly been challenged.
On top of this, the established history of economic and political neglect, coupled with
catastrophic environmental degradation, is important.
If one then adds in the brutal response to recent rioting - brutality that will
almost certainly radicalise some people - one can quickly see how this might tick many of the boxes
one would expect to see in an independence movement.
Whether this does now grow into something a lot more serious will depend on a lot of factors.
For a start, while the government has pledged to continue to crack down on anyone undermining
peace and public safety, the police will need to trade extremely carefully in the period ahead.
At the same time, the government will also need to show that it
didn't sanction the heavy-handed behaviour of the security forces.
Already there have been widespread international calls - including by
the United States and the United Nations - for an investigation into the violence.
Likewise, there'll be the expectation that any trials of demonstrators will be free
and fair and uphold international standards.
In the meantime, the government will also need to show that the status issue is now off the table.
And yet, one can't help but feel that something more significant may have been unleashed.
Following the government's threat to remove its autonomy, and the extreme violence that followed,
many of the region's inhabitants might now begin to question whether the right to independence
still enshrined in the constitution may need to be invoked.
And, of course, if calls for secession do now increase,
there's the all-important question of how the government will then respond?
I hope you found that useful. If so, here are some more videos on Central
Asia and the former Soviet Union that you might find interesting.
Thanks so much for watching and see you in the next video.