Hello, my name is Rob Karlmark
and I'm a meteorologist here in
Northern California for ABC10.
So we tend to focus on our local region,
but you know, year after year we
also noticing that so many peope
are interested in the bigger picture.
You know in the in the middle of
summer you want to know what's g
to happen in the winter and in e
winter you want to know what's
going to happen in the summer.
And this is very natural.
In fact, I want to know as well,
but it's so difficult to forecat
things months in advance, howev.
There are patterns and trends tt
have surfaced over the years and
decades that we research and pln
the numbers and see what happen.
And then you can also go backwas
and recreate environments from
scratch and plug in the same nus
and kind of see how it goes.
So we are noticing trends that e
often than not happen during some big
global events like a La Nina or El Nino.
So I'll take you through all
those in just a second here,
but this is something that's really important
the next El Nino that will be developing,
which it is right now.
Basically at that threshold,
but we'll give it a little bit more time.
Look at the environment that
it's going into right here.
This is really, really importan.
All across the planet,
we are seeing temperatures at the surface
of the ocean that are warmer than normal.
Now this does not mean that we've got
80 degrees here and 80 degrees .
That's not the case.
This is a map of the anomalies.
This is basically relating it to each
area during the exact day compared to normal.
So what we're seeing here is a trend.
That all across the Pacific,
Atlantic, the Gulf of Mexico,
we've the Caribbean,
I mean you name it,
almost every ocean basin is just running a
little bit warm right now compared to normal.
Then we see the El Nino region.
So this is right in the
middle of of the Pacific,
this is one and two and it's geg
really warm compared to normal.
The next step is that it moves o
the middle of the Pacific and then we
start to see very noticeable tr.
With that said,
right off the coast of Californa
what we have.
As we've got some water that's starting
to trend a little bit above normal now
they're still are pockets of cool water,
but we're starting to see things
change in a pattern for our local area.
That Green square right there
is called the Nino 3.4 region.
And once this warmer water stars
to migrate and you'd see it here
and it lasts through the winter,
that's really the bread and butter of
what a El Nino forecast is for North America.
And that's when we start to see
those trends that people talk at
and have noticed and and and.
Written down and observed many, many times.
So this is where we are at the moment.
Then remember,
this is just what's going on at the top.
When you look underneath,
we've got all these buoys with real data.
These X's are a temperature probes at depth,
so you can see what's going on
down to about 500 meters or so.
So you can really get a good idea what's
going on at the top and a good a
what's going on at the near sur.
Now what we're noticing are big
bubbles of warmer than normal wr
migrating across the Pacific.
This does happen. These are cal.
Kelvin waves.
And once they get toward the
coast of South America and start
to work their way to the surfac,
then they interact with the trade winds,
which will then blow that water
out to that Nino 3.4 region.
So we're seeing the connection,
we're seeing it at the top.
We know what's going on underneh
and we're noticing the overall
weather and conditions that cree
these two working together.
That should be continuing as we.
So you put these in a computer model,
it runs at many different times,
many different ways.
So that that's why we have
all these lines here.
But essentially you get to an average
and you could see there's not at
of disagreement here about whate
models are seeing down the road.
Above .5 degrees Celsius,
we call that El Nino.
In Australia it's .8 or above.
But anyway you cut it,
we're going to be there fairly soon and
we should be there through the winter.
So in fact a lot of the expertst
do this all the time and make these big
long range forecast for El Nino or La Nina,
which is what we had for
three years in a row,
they are seeing the same thing.
They're about 90% plus
confident we're looking at a.
Or strong El Nino all the way
through this upcoming winter.
So now we're talking about thins
that are actually coming togeth,
not forecast, but we're seeing the real data,
we're seeing the computer model.
So now we really need to refresr
memory about what's going on he.
And now a normal situation here
is you get the trade winds on
both sides of the equator.
And this is well known for sail.
We've noticed this forever.
This is a nothing new here and you get
cooler water off the coast of South America.
If you know anything about you w
the the coast of South America
especially once you get to Chil,
it's very,
very cold and once you get to te
equator it's not as cold but ite
are looking at A and and so neul
situation then with the Kelvin
waves with the current coming or
you get the warm water off the
coast of South America.
It migrates into that region with the
weak trade winds and then we st.
Start to notice an El Nino phenomenon.
Now again, this is you have to
understand how data is observedd
then projected out into the fut.
This is a more often than not situation.
It's not 100%, but you tend to n
towards something looking like .
What are the normal conditions for Southern
California and across the South?
Drier conditions for portions oe
East Coast and warmer than norml
conditions for the Pacific Northwest and
also for the Northern plains as well,
because that polar jet tends to
be up a little bit and we get a
really active southern jet as w.
So that's usually what we're looking at.
For an El Nino situation, it'll depend.
Every year varies a little bit, but again,
more often than not that's what we're
seeing during a La Nina situati.
That's when we get a lot of cooler water,
strong winds that comes in,
squashes, any sort of neutral ol
Nino situation and then you get.
Get this pattern emerging?
You tend to get drier than norml
conditions for the Southern Tier states.
You tend to get some other pocks
and a cold winter for the northn
plains and wetter than normal
conditions for the Pacific Northwest.
Let it just be said.
That what we had for the 1st
2 La Nina seasons recently,
it pretty much look like this.
The last La Nina season we
did not look like this.
It was very wet for certainly
Southern California and the Four
Corners region as well as portis
of far Northern California as w.
So again, it will vary a little,
but that's in general what we
tend to look at.
Now here's where we really need
to get into how this all connec.
If you run out the computer mod,
roughly this is what we're looking at.
El Nino conditions, that's what we're seeing.
That's what the computer models
are forecasting.
But what does it actually look ?
What are the normal conditions
for Southern California?
Maybe a little bit of Northern California
drier than normal in the Pacific Northwest.
Again, this will totally look a little
different once we actually get there,
but we have to remember the word
does not revolve around North America.
This is a global event and as yu
get closer to the source,
you see a lot more direct impac.
So you tend to see a lot more
thunderstorm activity, really w,
humid air, and that makes sense.
It's going to be really warm he.
The warmer the air is,
the more moisture can hold,
so the likely the more wetter
it's going to be.
But then as you start to move through
the different patterns as energs
transferred from the equator to the poles.
You start to see other things.
Brazil at the moment is worried
about fires and drought.
Africa is worried about floodin.
You have Australia, Indonesia,
Portions of Asia are definitely
worried about drought,
fire.
We saw that during the last big El Nino.
So these are the things that
we're worried about weather wis.
But the one thing that everyone just needs to
brace themselves for is the longterm trend.
There are two things here with a graphic
from Climate Central Computing the data #1.
Going back to the 1950s,
just with raw observations,
we've noticed a couple things.
Global temperatures are indeed rising now.
There are warmer years,
there are colder years.
But remember,
you have to look at the average.
And when you start to see that,
you can clearly see over
the last several decades,
there is a a warming trend across the planet.
But the other thing that you're going
to see here is notice the red d.
Yes, you'll have some El Nino ys
where it's a colder than normal year,
but more often than not,
look where all these red dots are lining up.
They tend to be above the baseline and
it usually helps to usher in a new era
of global temperatures that are really,
really warm.
This has happened over
the past several El Ninos,
and unfortunately the forecastes
that do this day in and day oute
just looking at the numbers ande
anticipating a red dot which ma.
Or maybe not,
but more likely than not tended
lift our global temperatures up.
So we saw that over the last
two El Ninos and that may be the
situation going into the next o.