FORWARD.
WE'LL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.
DOW DOWN ABOUT 10 POINTS.
>>> TREASURY SECRETARY STEVE
MNUCHIN IS IN SAUDI ARABIA AFTER
ALL OR HEADING THERE, NOT SO
MUCH FOR THE FINANCE PART OF
THIS BIG FINANCIAL POW-WOW BUT
THE THINGS THAT WILL ADDRESS
NATIONAL SECURITY, TERRORISM,
ISSUES WHICH HE SAYS THE
ADMINISTRATION SAYS, WE HAVE A
COMMON BOND WITH THE SAUDIS.
TO THE FORMER CHAIRMAN ON THE
COMMITTEE ON IRAQ, AMBASSADOR
PAUL BREMER.
AMBASSADOR, ALL OF THIS, BACK
AND FORTH YOU KNOW, ABOUT THE
KILLING OF JAMAL KHASHOGGI, IT
IS NOT EASING UP.
NOW THIS BIG CONFERENCE WHERE A
LOT OF THE BIGWIGS ARE NOT
GOING.
A LOT OF UNDERLINGS ARE, BUT
CERTAINLY SOURED RELATIONS.
DESERVEDLY SO?
WHAT DO YOU THINK?
>> I THINK THE FIRST PROBLEM THE
SAUDIS HAVEN'T GIVEN A COHERENT
EXPLANATION.
FIRST ARGUMENT WAS NOTHING
HAPPENED.
THEIR SECOND LINE WAS WELL,
ACTUALLY SOMETHING HAPPENED BUT
IT WAS AN ACCIDENT.
NOW THEY HAVE SAID, WELL IT
WASN'T AN ACCIDENT, IT WAS A
ROGUE OPERATION.
HOWEVER, IT IS A ROGUE OPERATION
THAT INVOLVES APPARENTLY 15
MEMBERS OF SAUDI INTELLIGENCE
INCLUDING A FORENSIC EXPERT WHO
BROUGHT A BONE SAW IN HIS
CARRY-ON.
IT IS A LITTLE HARD TO
UNDERSTAND ACTUALLY WHAT
HAPPENED.
I KNOW THAT THE TURKISH
GOVERNMENT SAID THEY WILL REVEAL
MORE INFORMATION TOMORROW.
WE'LL SEE.
BUT WE REALLY NEED TO GET TO THE
BOTTOM OF IT.
NEIL: WHEN I LOOK AT THE NUMBER
OF SAUDI OFFICIALS THAT WERE
ROUNDED UP, THEY INCLUDE PRETTY
BIGWIGS, THE CROWN PRINCE'S
DIRECTOR OF COMMUNICATIONS, ALSO
A TWO-STAR GENERAL LARGELY
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SAUDI WAR IN
YEMEN.
THESE WERE NOT LOW-RANKING
FIGURES.
THEY COULDN'T HAVE DONE WHAT
THEY DID OBLIVIOUS TO THE
PRINCE, COULD THEY?
>> THAT OF COURSE IS THE KEY
QUESTION.
WHAT WAS THE ROLE OF THE CROWN
PRINCE?
HE IS, AFTER YOU WILL, AN
AUTOCRAT WHO IS AUTOCRATICALLY
TRYING TO REFORM AN AUTOCRACY.
IT IS RATHER BIZARRE SITUATION.
WHEN HE ROUNDED UP THE ELITE OF
SAUDI ARABIA A YEAR AGO, LEFT
THEM IN THE RITZ-CARLTON AND
LEFT THEM THERE UNTIL THEY
COUGHED UP A LOT OF MONEY.
FROM THE AMERICAN POINT OF VIEW
THERE ARE TWO THINGS WE HAVE TO
DO.
WE HAVE TO GET TO THE BOTTOM OF
WHAT HAPPENED, INCLUDING THE
QUESTION WHETHER THE CROWN
PRINCE WAS DIRECTLY INVOLVED.
AND, WE HAVE TO PRESERVE THE
SAUDI RELATIONSHIP.
THIS IS AFTER ALL, A KEY
RELATIONSHIP FOR US IN THE
REGION.
WE CAN'T JUST THROW IT AWAY.
AND, TO DO THAT, THE PRESIDENT'S
GOING TO HAVE TO COME UP WITH A
CLEAR SENSE OF WHAT HE WANTS TO
ACHIEVE AND A GREAT DEAL OF
DISCIPLINE IN ACHIEVING IT.
THESE, ARE PERHAPS, NOT THE MOST
OBVIOUS NORMAL ATTRIBUTES OF
THIS ADMINISTRATION.
NEIL: YOU KNOW, I'M WONDERING,
THESE ARE NOT THE NORMAL
ATTRIBUTES OF THE MIDDLE EAST,
TALK ABOUT LEADERSHIP, HARDLY
ANY ARE SAINTS.
BUT WE CAN'T PICK AND CHOOSE
THOSE WITH WHOM WE DEAL AND I'M
JUST WONDERING THE
ADMINISTRATION IS WALKING A
TIGHTROPE HERE, RIGHT?
DON'T WANT TO REPEAT WHAT WE DID
WITH THE SHAH OF IRAN, A
CONTROVERSIAL FIGURE AT THE
TIME, ULTIMATELY ABANDONED BY
THE CARTER ADMINISTRATION.
WE KNOW WE GOT AFTERWARD WITH
KHOMENI.
SOMETIMES THE DEVIL YOU KNOW IS
BETTER THAN THE DEVIL YOU DON'T.
I WONDER HOW THIS WILL BE PLAYED
GOING FORWARD?
>> YOU'RE RIGHT TO FOCUS ON THE
SHAH.
THERE IS INTERESTING PARALLELS
WITH THE CROWN PRINCE.
THE SHAH WAS A REFORMING
AUTOCRAT.
HE STARTED OPENING UP IRAN IN
THE EARLY 1970s AND LOST
CONTROL OF THE PROCESS.
INDEED THAT IS THE DILEMMA THAT
THE CROWN PRINCE IN SAUDI ARABIA
FACES.
HE SEEMS TO WANT TO OPEN UP.
HE HAS LET WOMEN DRIVE, SO
FORTH.
WHETHER THE SYSTEM CAN TAKE THIS
PACE OF VERIES FAST CHANGE THAT
THE CROWN PRINCE WANTED TO TAKE
AND SURVIVE IS THE QUESTION.
CAN YOU DO THIS WITHOUT
PROVOKING A SIMILAR REACTION IN
SAUDI ARABIA THAT HAPPENED IN
IRAN?
THAT IS WHY IT IS IMPORTANT FOR
AMERICA TO KEEP ITS EYE ON THE
BALL, TO HAVE CLEAR SENSE WHAT
IT IS TRYING TO ACHIEVE HERE.
NEIL: AMBASSADOR, THE SAUDIS
MADE CLEAR THEY WOULD NOT USE
OIL AS A WEAPON, I'M
PARAPHRASING HERE, WOULDN'T DO
WHAT THEY DID IN THE '70s,
PRESUMABLY BECAUSE IT WOULD ALSO
BOOMERANG ON THEM, BUT WHAT DO
YOU THINK ABOUT THAT.
>> OIL COULD SKYROCKET, COULD
GET OUT OF HAND, ONE OF THE
REASONS THE DOW IS VISITING
SESSION LOWS HERE, WHAT DO YOU
THINK?
>> THE SAUDIS OF COURSE WOULD
SAY THAT WHETHER THEY WOULD DO
IT I'M NOT SURE.
IN ANY CASE IN TERMS OF
AMERICA'S INTEREST, WE ARE MUCHS
LESS VULNERABLE THAN YOU AND
YOUR LISTENERS KNOW IN 1972 AND
73.
IT WOULD HURT THE EUROPEAN
ALLIES A GREAT DEAL MORE.
NOT TO SAY WE SHOULDN'T CARE.
WE SHOULD CARE AND HOPE IT
DOESN'T COME TO THAT.
I SAY THE FUNDAMENTAL GOAL FOR
THE UNITED STATES NOW TO GET TO
THE BOTTOM OF WHAT HAPPENED AND
PRESERVE THE SAUDI RELATIONSHIP
AND THE PRESIDENT NEEDS TO DO
THIS, OR CONGRESS WILL TAKE OVER
THE ROLE OF DEALING WITH THE
SAUDIS AND CONGRESS IS A BLUNT
INSTRUMENT AS WE ALL KNOW.