It is officially hurricane season.
Each year from June 1st
through November 30th,
tropical or subtropical cyclones are most
likely to form in the Atlantic basin.
Now, even though we are hundreds of
miles from the coast, we still have
to be aware of tropical systems,
and Georgia has had its fair share of
storms over the last several years.
Meteorologist Melissa Nord shares this
year's Atlantic Hurricane Outlook.
12 to 17 named storms,
5 to 9 hurricanes and one
to four major hurricanes.
Noah says there's a 40% chance
of a near normal season.
So what drives this year's outlook?
Abnormally warm waters in the
Atlantic and a 93% chance of an El Nino.
This summer, during an El Nino,
more vertical wind shear is present.
This means there's a change in
the speed and direction of the
wind and it disrupts storm growth.
But although this El Nino
can slow storm growth,
the abnormally warm waters in the
Atlantic can mean quite the opposite.
Having a high heat content can
lead to a rapid intensification
when a storm's winds increase at
least 35 mph in a 24 hour period,
this can be especially dangerous.
Like what we saw with Hurricane
Michael in 2018,
Noah keeps upgrading its
supercomputing system.
The hope is that hurricane track
predictions will be 15% more
accurate this season and will help
with the storm surge forecasts.
Well, here you have it, the names for the
2023 hurricane season.
You see 21 names here.
But what happens?
If a storm forms after 21,
for example after Whitney,
well in prior to 2021,
the World Meteorological Organization
would then go to the Greek letter alphabet.
We saw that in 2005 where we had
Katrina and Wilma and also a very
historic season in 2020 where we saw
nine names off this list become storms.
It got very confusing once we
got down to say Zeta hurricane
Zeta that hit Louisiana.
People thought that was the
end of the Greek alphabet,
but actually it was only the
6th name Storm went all the
way to Iota which was a major.
That came to hit Central America.
So the World Meteorological
Organization decided to get rid of
this list to limit the confusion
and came up with a supplemental
list that started in 2021.
And this is the list we would use
if a storm happens after the 21
named storms that we already have
would start with Adria Braylon
and end with Viviana and Will.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric
Administration, or NOAA,
gathers data by flying over,
through, and around storms.
The data helps identify the intensity
of the storms and the forecast track.
As meteorologist Andrew Wilson reports,
drones are also helping the Hurricane
hunters collect necessary data.
Lieutenant Commander Becky
Shaw pilots Noah's P threes,
one of the few people on Earth who
willingly fly into a hurricane.
I play the whole 2021 season and
I think it's about 7 hurricanes,
but there are some areas even
she won't go Enter drones.
With these uncrewed systems we can
now collect data in the parts of
the storm that we don't want to be.
NOAA has been testing 3 models of
uncrewed aircrafts that drop out of the
Hurricane Hunter planes and collect data
in lower areas never before captured.
A crew member will be flying the
drone while on board the P3. We're
going to launch it in a tube form.
It'll spread its wings in flight.
And it will fly at a low altitude
while we're at our normal
8 to 10,000 foot altitude.
And we'll be collecting
data from both aircrafts.
Unlike drop signs, which take a snapshot
of the conditions as they fall to Earth,
the drones can stay in the air for hours
To be able to fly those outfits in and out.
It's going to be, it's going to change a
lot of what we know about these storms.
The crews have been testing the aircraft's
abilities to safely drop from the plane,
stay in range and collect accurate
information, and now they're
being sent into actual storms.
The single mission drones have one
moment in the sun or really storm.
We're responsible for making sure it's
not gonna hang out out there and go
find a ship or go find another plane.
So we make sure that the the
system will land on the water.
It'll ditch into the water once
we get all the data off of it.
This year, NOAA has implemented a
number of upgrades in their system,
their model forecasting as well as
some new tools that will help out
when it comes to the forecasting
for this hurricane season.
This will lead to some changes
for what they put out and what
some of their graphics look like.
The first is going to be with
our tropical outlooks.
Typically in previous years we've
had outlooks that say the chance
of development within the next two
days as well as the next 5 days.
This year we have chance of
development for the next two days
as well as the next seven days.
So it allows us to prepare and
forecast for these tropical systems
a little bit further in advance.
We also will see upgrades to the
forecasting of these tropical cones
that they put out the cones of
uncertainty towards the end of June.
Some of their new forecast models
will allow for 15% better forecasting
for those tropical outlooks and for.
Or the cone of uncertainty.
There's also some upgrades to
our excessive rain outlook.
Previously,
you could only see three days in advance.
This year,
the excessive rain outlook will
go up to five days in advance.
With these tropical cyclones,
hurricanes as well as tropical storms,
typically we see the most deaths
and the most damage from a lot of
the flooding that occurs either from
rainfall or from the storm surge.
So this will allow communities to better.
Prepare their storm surge forecasting
is also going to be improving.
Will now be able to run models
for two systems at the same time,
which will give us a better look
at other future possibilities
when it comes to the storm surge.
Due to these systems,
during hurricane season,
Georgia's coastline can get
battered by storm surge,
and our state's natural topography
and ways of fighting this surge are
being threatened by rising seas.
Meteorologist Melissa Nord
looks into a new push for
strengthening our coasts.
Resiliency
a gem along Georgia's coastline.
We have over 380,000 acres of
salt marsh and Georgia's coast.
We have a fourth of all salt marsh on
the Atlantic seaboard. That's a lot.
Is also one of our biggest guardians.
It protects us from storms, hurricanes,
salt marshes,
absorb floodwaters and wave energy.
Decreasing property damage in nearby
communities during hurricanes by up to 20%,
according to Noah, and it's a key
player in limiting our carbon footprint.
It can store carbon at a rate 10 times
that of a mature tropical forest,
but our marshlands ability to
protect us from storms is declining
because of climate change.
Climate change is actually being
experienced today on Georgia's coast.
Increased flooding, increased erosion.
Salt water moving further inland.
And that creates a real challenge not
only for the people that live there,
but for the ecosystems that have been there.
Changes that we may not see here in
Atlanta are being felt along our coast
as sea levels rise.
Marshes will naturally migrate
upland because marsha's
occurred a specific elevation,
so as waters rise it will it
will cover lower lying marsh and
and marsh will move up the the
upland marsh boundary so long as
there's not an obstruction to it.
The brackish water during that
migration creates ghost forests,
poisoning trees that once relied
on fresh water for sustenance.
But when we develop near the marsh,
or build structures like bulkheads,
the marsh has nowhere to go.
Sediment buildup cannot keep up.
The marsh ends up underwater.
In a NOAA report this year,
they expect another three feet
of sea level rise by 2100.
In a city like Savannah,
this is what that looks like.
Aries in white,
once covered in marshland,
get overtaken by the blue rising sea levels.
Even with some of the marshes
migrating further inland,
we will lose part of our
guardian of the coastline,
a habitat for small fish and oysters,
and the ability to sequester
and store carbon.
The Southern Atlantic Marsh Initiative,
or SAMSI,
is a network of more than 300 scientists,
community members and other advocates.
Pushing for urgent efforts to make
our coastlines more resilient,
they just released a 10 year plan
to protect the future of 1,000,000
acres of salt marsh stretching
from North Carolina to Florida.
Nearly the size of Grand
Canyon National Park.
It is a pathway to the protection,
restoration and migration of our salt marsh,
our way to guard our guardian against
its greatest threats in a warming world.
In Georgia,
part of this plan includes
obtaining funding to expand our
network of living shorelines,
a natural alternative to a
bulkhead or hardened structure
along the coastline in Georgia,
especially in areas where you may
be encountering erosion or strong
way of energy along a private
property or public property.
And so living shorelines is basically
a way of using natural elements that
are found in our coastline anyway.
Oyster shells.
Along the bank along with native
plants to help create a more
natural bank shoreline rather than
a hardened concrete shoreline
that helps attenuate wave energy,
reduce flooding,
and help protect that shoreline
using a more natural system
than than regular concrete.
A novel concept at the turn of the century,
these become equally or less expensive
than its concrete alternative.
And it provides a better
habitat for the ecosystem.
A sea level rises, We're going to
see it encroach further on land.
By putting in living shorelines,
that marsh will be able to move landward.
Several living shorelines have
been installed in the Southeast
and are successfully protecting
our coast from storm surge,
helping prevent erosion and sediment
loss that hurts our marshes.
The plan also includes efforts to remove
several non natural barriers on the
coast and to conserve higher ground
near marshes to support March migration.
Small efforts combined that can
make one big push to strengthen the
link between protecting our coastal
ecosystems and our own uses on the coast
might not be apparent during your
daytoday activity up in Atlanta.
So many people vacation at the coast
and enjoy the coastal environment.
It provides an opportunity for recreation,
a place to find solitude.
So many people find that coastal
area beautiful and I think it's
important that we work to protect it,
not only for us today,
but for our children,
our grandchildren in the future.
Guarding our guardian of the waterways.
Meteorologist Melissa Nord, 11 Live News.
Because the Georgia coast sees
more significant flooding
during events like hurricanes,
scientists and engineers with Georgia
Tech are installing a network of
sea level sensors along the coast.
They're meant to help with emergency
planning and response during weather events.
Meteorologist Melissa Nord spoke with one
of the scientists behind the project.
Tell me a little bit about how the Smart
Sea Level Sensors Project came about.
So my background is computer science
networking technology at Georgia Tech.
And so I come at this from the what are the
things we can do with low cost sensors.
And now that they're so widely available
and with the experience of some flooding
events on the coast of Georgia and
the lack of real insight and data,
they were basically National Weather
Service only operated 2 online weather
stations along the coast of Georgia and.
We just didn't have enough visibility.
This project is about providing data about
what's going on in our communities with
regards to flooding and changing climate
and the impacts on our daily lives,
and having real information to
share with folks.
They come to us when we're installing about
stories about we think it's flooding more,
but we're not sure why and we can help them.
Understand that and and really share that
with others about what's really happening
and one application with an example before
these went in were Hurricanes Maria and
Irma right down in the Savannah area.
They didn't have this many sensors of real
time data of what are the waters doing
exactly, exactly.
And what we saw is that what what
we continue to see is that with
each storm event it is there's
really a different different kind
of impact around the community.
Some places flood all the time,
but many places only flood depending
on which way the wind is blowing
or how much rain there was or
where we are in the tide cycle.
So getting that,
that local visibility into how different
storms flood in different areas,
that's what part of what this
project is allows us to do.
You can stay connected to the latest
forecast and any special tropical
alerts with the 11 Alive app.
Head to the weather section of the app,
click Explore Radar Map,
and then click on the button for map layers.
You'll Scroll down and toggle on
tropical tracks so you can see the
latest forecast track cones issued
by the National Hurricane Center.