Speaker 1: Because after all, it's only January of 2023. We are not paying much attention to 2024
polling. We're looking at it sort of every three weeks, every four weeks. I can't quite remember
the last time we looked at it, but it is not irrelevant, and particularly when we are asking
the question, is Trump's campaign for the primary nomination imploding before it even gets going
when we are not yet sure that Joe Biden is running for reelection because, despite what he says,
he has not actually announced that he is running for reelection at this time or filed to run for
reelection, there's a lot of question marks and interesting things going on in the aftermath of
the 2022 midterms, etc.. So let's look at where the numbers are. And this morning, there was a
headline, Trump leads Biden in hypothetical 2024 matchup, according to a new poll. That
is indeed true. Emerson College has released a new poll which finds that Trump is leading Biden
44 to 41. However, you do have 14% of respondents who are not in either camp yet. 10% say, Well,
I would support someone else. 4% were simply undecided. But I think the takeaway, given
that Emerson is a pretty good pollster and we'll see how good in a moment is that it is very much
not a foregone conclusion that Trump can't win or that Trump is certain to win. And it is very much
not a foregone conclusion that Joe Biden would have an easy time getting reelected or that Joe
Biden would be unable to get himself reelected. Neither. It is a very, very unclear scenario. Now,
if we want to zoom out a little bit and say, okay, but David, that's one poll from Emerson.
What if we look a little more broadly? I love that idea. So then we would go to Fivethirtyeight's
aggregation of different polls and there you will find the Emerson poll. I just mentioned
the Emerson poll, that's an A-minus rated pollster in a Biden DeSantis matchup. It's essentially even
it's Biden plus one. And in that Biden Trump matchup, as I just told you, Emerson has it,
Trump plus three. But what about other pollsters? Well, let's look Morning Consult, which is a B
rated pollster, has a poll that one day newer in Biden versus DeSantis. They have DeSantis ahead,
whereas in Biden versus Trump, they have Biden ahead by three points. All right. What about a
different poll? Well, we have one from a few days ago. This is a Harris poll. Harris is a B-plus
rated pollster. In that poll, Biden DeSantis has de Santos up three and Biden. Trump has Trump up
five. And then lastly, and this is the last one, because then we'll get to our bigger observations,
YouGov, which is a B-plus rated pollster Biden. Trump has Biden up four,
and in a slightly different formulation, they have Biden up six. That's
registered voters versus what is a I forget what A is not actual likely anyway.
And then in Biden DeSantis, they have it even. So what's the real takeaway here? The real takeaway
is not know. One of these polls is really going to tell us everything that we need to
know. The takeaway is anything quite literally could happen in 2024. We are not even really
in the primary season. Donald Trump did something that sort of out of not out of character for him,
but it's out of norms historically to announce so early that he is running. He is scheduled to start
campaign events soon, although I don't know that they're going to be massive rallies. In fact,
he does have an event in South Carolina this weekend. Our correspondent Luke Beasley will be
there and we will have clips of interviews with South Carolinian Trump supporters for you on an
upcoming program. The takeaway is we don't have any idea what could happen. And so any statements
that sound like foregone conclusions of the sort of Biden doesn't have to worry or Biden has no
chance. Trump's got this in the bag or Trump has no chance. None of those statements are
accurate at this point in time. Now, what about the Republican primary? This is a very interesting
question because there is a candidate who has not even announced that he is running, Ron DeSantis,
who had some polling that looked pretty good more recently. It doesn't look quite so good for Ron
DeSantis. In a recent Morning Consult poll, Trump is leading DeSantis by 19 in the primary. In a
recent Emerson poll, Trump is leading to Santos by 26. In a recent berated Big Village poll,
Trump is leading DeSantis by 23. And in a recent Harris poll, Trump is leading to Santos.
But Trump, Tim Scott, Trump plus 50. Oh, this is oh, this is against other people. Okay. Trump
is leading DeSantis by ten in a Harris poll. So even though there was a period about a. A
month ago or so where Ron DeSantis was actually leading Trump in a bunch of different polls,
despite the fact that Trump has announced and DeSantis has not, which was quite stunning, it
does not seem to be the most common scenario right now. That's where we are. Anything could happen.
Anything could change. But we will follow it probably like roughly every three or four weeks.