your insights.
And for more insight on what the
revolt means for Russia's war in
Ukraine, we turn to Samuel
bendett, a Russian military
analyst for the center for naval
analyses.
What lies ahead for the Wagner
group?
Prigozhin has said his fighters
will never accept the options
Vladimir Putin put to him today,
which is fight for Russia, go
home or go to Belarus.
Samuel: That's a good question.
These questions will probably
reverberate for the next several
weeks if not months.
Clearly Wagner is not
dismantled, it's still a
functioning organiation,
clearly there are officers in
the group that are still with
prigozhin and Wagner is still
useful force internationally
when it comes to Russia's
geopolitical interests.
It's not as simple as
dismantling Wagner.
There's a lot of money and
effort invested.
A lot of discussions in the
Russian government today that
groups like Wagner should even
be allowed.
But prigozhin has allies in the
Kremlin's of the fight over his
fate will continue.
Geoff: How much does Putin need
the Wagner group to fight his
war?
Samuel: It depends.
Clearly Wagner was a good
attacking force around back moat
-- bahkmut.
But right now Russia is fighting
a defensive war and it doesn't
need Wagner forces to storm
positions like they did in bahkm
UT.
This is up to the ministry of
defense, the Kremlin and
prigozhin's allies and foes, as
they are discussing how the
country is going to move forward
after this 72 hours.
Geoff: Is Ukraine
well-positioned to take
advantage of this moment?
Might this be a decisive turn in
their counteroffensive?
Samuel: Anything is possible but
a lot of Russians were concerned
Ukraine would take advantage of
what is happening in Russia this
weekend.
However, no significant
Ukrainian breakthrough has
materialized in the last 72
hours against Russian positions
even though Ukrainians have
advanced somewhat against
Russian positions.
There was no massive
breakthrough that people were
hoping for.
It's not clear what will happen
to the advance going forward but
right now, Russians seem to be
holding firm even if they are
losing some territory to the
attacking Ukrainian formations.
Geoff: From your vantage point,
what might this revolt mean for
morale among Russian troops,
many of whom are conscripts and
were conscripted reluctantly?
Samuel: The morale cannot be
good, especially when the
president officially pardons the
Wagner soldiers who shot down
Russian aircraft and copilots.
Probably there's a lot of bad
feelings and anger and
resentment at Wagner across the
military, especially the mod.
There was bad blood before this
uprising, but the bad feelings
will probably persist.
It's not exactly clear how much
the military will welcome Wagner
even as the president welcomes
Wagner soldiers into its ranks.
Prigozhin in his audio message
this morning indicated that few
of his soldiers would join the
military.
A lot of questions and not a lot
of answers.
Geoff: Lastly, what does the
undermining of Vladimir Putin's
authority mean for him as the
leader of Russia's military?
Samuel: Certainly the events of
the past weekend undermine his
standing, bad optics for him in
general.
He seemed weak and their issues
with the government sponsored
that have to be -- response that
have to be considered.
But we should not write him off
yet.
He can survive crises and you
will probably try to survive
this one as well.
All Ruth lead to Putin at this
point and he's still the chief
decision-maker and the one who
is the arbiter of a lot of
disputes and decisions in the
government.
We will have to see.
Geoff: Samuel, thank you for
being with us.
Samuel: Thank you.
♪♪