>> Steve: LAST MONTH, ONTARIO LIFTED ITS SECOND STATE OF EMERGENCY.
AT THE URGING OF SOME LOCAL MAYORS AND THE TOP PUBLIC HEALTH OFFICIAL, YORK REGION MOVED FROM
LOCKDOWN TO THE RED ZONE.
CONVERSELY, PUBLIC HEALTH IN NEIGHBOURING PEEL REGION AND TORONTO, ASKED THAT THEIR AREAS
REMAIN IN LOCKDOWN FOR TWO WEEKS LONGER THAN THAT.
WITH RISING CONCERN ABOUT VARIANTS AND A THIRD WAVE, HOW ARE THINGS GOING IN YORK SO FAR?
WELL, LET'S FIND OUT IN MARKHAM, ONTARIO FROM DR. KARIM KURJI, WHO IS THE MEDICAL OFFICER OF
HEALTH FOR THE REGIONAL MUNICIPALITY OF YORK.
DR. KURJI, IT'S GOOD OF YOU TO JOIN US TONIGHT.
HOW ARE YOU DOING SO FAR?
>> OH, VERY WELL.
THANK YOU, STEVE, FOR HAVING ME ON.
>> Steve: NOT AT ALL.
I'M GOING TO JUST PUT SOME BACKGROUND INFORMATION UP FIRST AND THEN WE'LL GET INTO THE
INTERVIEW.
SHELDON, IF YOU WOULD, LET'S BRING THIS GRAPHIC UP BECAUSE WE WANT TO TALK ABOUT THIS REGION
OF THE PROVINCE OF ONTARIO JUST NORTH OF THE 416, THERE ARE ABOUT 1.2 MILLION PEOPLE LIVING
IN NINE CITIES AND TOWNS ACROSS YORK REGION.
MORE THAN HALF OF THEM LIVE IN THE TWO CITIES OF MARKHAM AND VAUGHAN, AND SOME OF THOSE TOWNS
IN THE REGION ARE LESS THAN A TENTH OF THE SIZE OF THOSE CITIES, SUCH AS KING AND EAST
GWILLIMBURY WHICH HAVE ABOUT 28,000 AND 48,000 PEOPLE APIECE.
IT WOULD MAKE SENSE JUST TO START WITH, WHY DON'T YOU GIVE US A PRESENTATION WITH A BUNCH
OF CHARTS THAT YOU'VE BROUGHT IN AND YOU CAN SORT OF TAKE US THROUGH YOUR THINKING AS TO WHY
YORK HAS I GUESS APPROACHED THIS ISSUE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENTLY FROM SOME OF ITS NEIGHBOURING
JURISDICTIONS.
SHOULD WE DO THAT?
>> STEVE, IF IT'S OKAY, MAYBE I'LL JUST GIVE YOU A QUICK NARRATIVE FIRST AND THEN TAKE
YOU THROUGH THE CHARTS, IF THAT'S OKAY.
>> Steve: SURE.
>> YOU KNOW, WE ARE AT THE STAGE NOW WHEN IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE PROVINCE MIGHT DECIDE TO PULL
THE EMERGENCY BRAKES, GIVEN THE FACT THAT THEY HAVE SEEMED TO SIGNAL THAT IN THE MODELLING
PRESENTATIONS.
SO I WANT TO REMIND YOU THAT, YOU KNOW, I LEARNT MY EPIDEMIOLOGY AT THE LONDON
SCHOOL OF HYGIENE WHERE WE HAD A FANTASTIC INSTRUCTOR, THE LATE SIR JEFFREY ROSE.
AND ONE OF THE THINGS THAT HE SAID WAS EPIDEMIOLOGY SHOULD BE USED TO GET TO THE TRUTH.
SO WHEN WE LOOK AT THE TRUTH WITHIN YORK REGION STATISTICS, WHAT WE FIND IS THAT MAYBE A
LOCKDOWN WAS JUSTIFIABLE AT THE START OF THE PANDEMIC WHEN WE DIDN'T KNOW BETTER.
HOWEVER, AS IT PROGRESSED THROUGH THE PANDEMIC, WE LEARNED SO MUCH ABOUT THE VIRUS, THAT WE
NEED TO HAVE TARGETED INTERVENTIONS.
SO, FOR EXAMPLE, RIGHT NOW IN YORK REGION, IF YOU PULL THE EMERGENCY BRAKE, IT'S NOT
CONNECTED TO THE RIGHT WHEELS.
WE'RE NOT SEEING OUTBREAKS IN MALLS.
YOU'RE NOT SEEING OUTBREAKS IN RETAIL ESTABLISHMENTS.
WE'RE NOT SEEING OUTBREAKS IN RESTAURANTS.
WE'RE SEEING A FEW WHICH WE ARE CORRECTING.
WHAT WE ARE SEEING IS FOLKS THAT ARE UNVACCINATED STAFF THAT COME INTO LONG-TERM CARE HOMES AND
THEY SEEM TO BE PASSING ON THE INFECTION TO OTHER UNVACCINATED STAFF, AND FROM THERE IT GETS
INTO THE ADULTS AND SCHOOLS.
THAT'S ONE EXAMPLE.
ANOTHER EXAMPLE THAT WE'VE BEEN SEEING ARE INFECTIOUS INDIVIDUALS IN ONE FAMILY, A
LARGE FAMILY, THAT NEVER TOLD US THAT THEY HAD CLOSE CONTACTS IN THE FORM OF MIDWIVES, AND THEY
DIDN'T TELL THE MIDWIVES THAT THEY WERE INFECTED.
SO THESE ARE EXAMPLES WHERE YOU GET SAY A NEWBORN BEING INFECTED, PLUS ANOTHER
INDIVIDUAL BEING INFECTED.
SHE IS ARE SITUATIONS THAT REQUIRE TARGETED INTERVENTIONS, AND INDEED WE HAVE BEEN APPLYING
THOSE.
NOW, I ALSO NEED TO MENTION THAT LOCKDOWNS HAVE TREMENDOUS MENTAL HEALTH CONSEQUENCES AS WELL.
WE KNOW THAT SUBSTANCE ABUSE IS INCREASING.
WE KNOW THAT -- LIKE, I'VE HAD A SINGLE FATHER WITH THREE YOUNG CHILDREN APPEAL TO ME NOT TO
CLOSE DOWN HIS BUSINESS GIVEN THE FACT THAT HE HAD TAKEN TO ALCOHOL.
WE KNOW THE CORONER SAID THERE HAD BEEN A 25% INCREASE BETWEEN MARCH AND MAY OF SUBSTANCE ABUSE
DISORDERS.
EATING DISORDERS GO UP AND THEY ARE LINKED TO MORTALITY.
PEOPLE WITH AUTISM SPECTRUM DISORDERS HAVE A TOUGH TIME DEALING WITH THESE LOCKDOWNS.
WE DO KNOW THAT THERE ARE OTHER SOCIAL ISOLATION ISSUES, DEPRESSION, ANXIETY ISSUES AND
SUICIDE AS WELL.
WHEN IT ACTUALLY COMES TO THESE MENTAL HEALTH ISSUES, WE KNOW THERE ARE INSTITUTIONS IN
SOCIETY, AND THESE ARE PLACES OF WORSHIP, THAT HAVE BEEN LITERALLY CLOSED DOWN.
THEY ARE THE FABRIC OF SOCIETY.
THEY KEEP MANY OF THESE PROBLEMS AT BAY BY PROVIDING SOCIAL SUPPORTS.
WE MUSTN'T LOSE SIGHT OF ALL THESE ISSUES.
WE HAVE TO LOOK AT THE COMMUNITY AS A WHOLE.
>> Steve: I WONDER IF YOU WOULD, DOCTOR, AT THIS POINT, TAKE US THROUGH YOUR CHART.
>> YES, CERTAINLY.
THE FIRST CHART REFERS TO THE DEATHS IN YORK REGION.
WHAT I WANT YOU TO LOOK AT IS THE RIGHT-HAND SIDE OF THIS CHART.
THE TRUTH HERE, IF I COULD GET TO THE TRUTH, IS I'M NOT SEEING A PROBLEM HERE.
SO WHY SHOULD WE BE GOING INTO A LOCKDOWN?
MAYBE WE CAN MOVE OVER TO THE SECOND CHART NOW.
THE SECOND CHART IS THE HOSPITALIZATIONS IN YORK REGION, AND THE COLOUR AT THE TOP REFERS
TO THE ICU CASES.
AGAIN, YOU'RE SEEING THE HOSPITALIZATIONS OF YORK REGION RESIDENTS GOING DOWN.
I'M NOT ACTUALLY SEEING A PROBLEM, SO WHY SHOULD WE BE GOING INTO A LOCKDOWN?
THE NEXT CHART, PLEASE?
MUCH HAS BEEN MADE OF A RISING POSITIVITY RATE IN YORK REGION.
LOOK AT THE 4% THERE.
WHEN YOU ACTUALLY LOOK AT THE WHOLE PICTURE, I DON'T SEE A PROBLEM.
SO THE TRUTH HERE IS, AGAIN, A LOCKDOWN IS NOT NEEDED.
LET'S LOOK AT THE LAST CHART HERE.
AND THIS CHART IS A VERY INTERESTING CHART BECAUSE THE BLUE LINES TELL US THAT THE
CLASSIC COVID CASES AND THE YELLOW BARS TELL US THE VARIANTS OF CONCERN.
NOW, THIS IS AN AREA THAT WE NEED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO.
WE IN YORK REGION BELIEVE IN VERY EXTENSIVE AND EXCELLENT CASE AND CLOSE CONTACT
MANAGEMENT AS A MEANS OF KEEPING THOSE VARIANTS AT BAY, AND WE BELIEVE THAT WE'VE BEEN
SUCCEEDING AT KEEPING THEM DOWN.
SLOWLY AND STEADILY THEY'LL BECOME THE DOMINANT FORM.
AT THE MOMENT THEY ARE ABOUT 40% OF THE NORMAL.
SLOWLY AND STEADILY THEY WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FORM.
HOWEVER, WHAT WE HOPE IS THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO GET TO VACCINATING PEOPLE BEFORE THEY
ACTUALLY BECOME THE DOMINANT FORM.
THE VACCINATIONS IS AN INCREASING AREA AS WELL.
WE IN YORK REGION WENT OUT EARLIER WITH RESPECT TO VACCINATION OF THE GENERAL
POPULATION, AND WE HAVE ALREADY VACCINATED ABOUT 63% OF THOSE OVER THE AGE OF 80, AND YOU WILL
REMEMBER IN THE BEGINNING, LOCKDOWNS WERE JUSTIFIED BECAUSE WE WANTED TO KEEP THE MOST
VULNERABLE SAFE AND WE WANTED TO KEEP THE HEALTH CAPACITY UNDER CONTROL, BUT WE FEEL THAT WE'VE
NOW GOT BOTH OF THESE THINGS WELL-ESTABLISHED, AND SO THE PROVINCIAL PARAMETERS FOR THE
FRAMEWORK OUGHT TO BE CHANGED TO ACTUALLY ALLOW FLEXIBILITY.
>> Steve: WITH ALL OF THAT, LET ME JUMP IN HERE, WITH ALL OF THAT BACKGROUND IN PLACE YOU DO
RAISE A HOST OF QUESTIONS AND I WANT TO GET TO SOME OF THOSE NOW.
ESSENTIALLY YOUR CHARTS -- WE HAVE PEOPLE LISTENING ON PODCAST WHO COULDN'T SEE THE CHARTS.
I'LL SUM UP BY SAYING ESSENTIALLY YOU'VE SHOWN FOUR CHARTS WITH THE NUMBERS COMING
DOWN AND WOULD SHOW THINGS IN YORK REGION MORE UNDER CONTROL THAN THEY SURELY WERE A FEW
MONTHS AGO.
HAVING SAID THAT, YOU KNOW, IF YOU LOOK AT THE RATE OF INFECTION PER 100,000, WHICH IS
I GATHER HOW EPIDEMIOLOGISTS MEASURE THIS THING, THE RATES IN YORK REGION ARE STILL ACTUALLY
HIGHER THAN IN TORONTO AND PEEL.
THAT'S WHAT I'M TOLD.
AND YET TORONTO AND PEEL ARE BEING STRICTER ABOUT OPENING UP, WHEREAS YOU'RE URGING MORE
OPENING UP, AND SOME PEOPLE ARE WONDERING WHY.
DO YOU WANT TO TACKLE THAT ONE?
>> YES, CERTAINLY.
SO, YOU SEE, THIS PROVINCIAL FRAMEWORK HAS GOT MOVING POSTS, AS IT WERE.
JUST BEFORE NOVEMBER 13TH, THE INCIDENCE THAT WAS ALLOWABLE FOR US TO GO AND REMAIN IN THE RED
ZONE WAS 100 PER 100,000, AND THE POSITIVITY RATE WAS UP TO 10%.
YOU ARE NOW SEEING THAT THE FRAMEWORK HAS BEEN CHANGED TO SAY, WELL, IF YOU'RE OVER 40 PER
100,000, YOU SHOULD PROBABLY BE IN A LOCKDOWN AREA.
AND IF YOU'VE GOT POSITIVITY RATES THAT ARE MUCH LOWER, I THINK OVER 2.5%, YOU SHOULD
ACTUALLY BE IN LOCKDOWN MODE.
SO THE REALITY IS THAT WE'VE ALREADY VACCINATED A GOOD CHUNK OF OUR MOST VULNERABLE FOLKS, SO
WE'RE NOT GOING TO BE CAUSING AS MUCH DAMAGE IN TERMS OF MORTALITY.
AND AS IT GETS INTO THE OTHER AGE GROUPS, THE 75 TO 80 AGE GROUPS, THAT REDUCTION IN
MORTALITY WILL CONTINUE.
WE KNOW THAT WE'VE ALREADY VACCINATED THE LONG-TERM CARE HOMES, RETIREMENT HOMES,
CONGREGATE LIVING PLACES, AND JUST GETTING INTO THE HOME CARE CLIENTS.
SO I THINK THE PARAMETERS HAVE TO BE CHANGED, AND THE FACT THAT -- IF YOU LOOK AT THE
CURVES FOR TORONTO, PEEL, AND YORK REGION, IT DOESN'T SEEM TO MATTER WHAT ZONE YOU ARE IN, WE
ALL SEEM TO BE FOLLOWING THE SAME PATTERN.
IF YOU LOOK AT THE MOBILITY PATTERNS WHICH WE'VE MOST RECENTLY LOOKED AT, THE MOBILITY
CURVES FOR YORK REGION ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THOSE OF TORONTO AND PEEL.
>> Steve: LET ME JUMP IN ON THAT, IF I CAN?
>> SURE.
>> Steve: YOU KNOW, THE PREMIER HAS OFTEN ADMONISHED PEOPLE, IF YOU'RE LIVING IN
TORONTO OR PEEL, YOU'RE LOCKED DOWN AND WE DON'T WANT YOU TO BE DRIVING TO DURHAM OR YORK TO GET
A HAIRCUT OR GO TO A RESTAURANT BECAUSE THEY'RE OPEN.
HOW MUCH OF THAT, IN YOUR VIEW, IS HAPPENING?
>> WELL, I IMAGINE THAT HUMAN BEHAVIOUR WHAT IT IS AND PEOPLE ARE TIRED OF ALL THESE
RESTRICTIONS, THAT YOU'RE NOT GOING TO GET THE SAME DEGREE OF COMPLIANCE.
THE SAME THING HAPPENS WHEN YOU'RE TREATING AN INDIVIDUAL PATIENT AND GIVE THEM
MEDICATION.
YOU DON'T GET THE SAME DEGREE OF COMPLIANCE.
SO WHAT WE HAVE DONE IN YORK REGION IS TO ENSURE THAT OUR BUSINESSES KEEP EVERYBODY SAFE,
SO WE HAVE SET PHYSICAL DISTANCING RULES, ALL THE OTHER RULES THAT ARE SUPPOSED TO KEEP
THEM SAFE.
THEY WERE IMPLEMENTED AS A SECTION 22 ORDER INITIALLY AND WHEN THE PROVINCE CAUGHT UP WITH
RESPECT TO THOSE RESTRICTIONS, WE TOOK AWAY THE SECTION 22 ORDER.
AND WE HAVE TREMENDOUS ENFORCEMENT THAT IS CARRYING ON.
WE HAVE A COVID-19 ENFORCEMENT TASK FORCE THAT JUST IN THE LAST WEEK HAS INSPECTED SOME 2,500
PREMISES, HAS GIVEN SOME 500 EDUCATIONAL ENCOUNTERS AND SOME 50 CHARGES.
FROM NOVEMBER 22nd ONWARDS, THEY HAVE INSPECTED SOMETHING LIKE 25,000 PREMISES.
SO WE'RE MAKING SURE THAT OUR BUSINESSES REMAIN IN COMPLIANCE.
>> Steve: OKAY.
HOW ABOUT THIS ANGLE?
YORK REGION, I GUESS UNLIKE THE CITY OF TORONTO, IS VERY DIVERSE IN TERMS OF WHAT IT OFFERS FOR
POPULATION DENSITY, RIGHT?
TORONTO IS PRETTY DENSE IN POPULATION.
YORK REGION HAS SOME CITIES THAT HAVE DENSE POPULATION, BUT SOME EX-URBAN AND RURAL AREAS, WHERE
IT'S MUCH MORE SPARSELY POPULATED.
HOW DO YOU COME UP WITH AN APPROACH TO TACKLING COVID-19 IN SUCH A DISPARATE AREA?
>> YOU'RE QUITE RIGHT IN SAYING THAT YORK REGION IS A VERY DIVERSE COMMUNITY.
IN FACT, IT IS THREE TIMES THE SIZE OF TORONTO, WITH A POPULATION OF 1.2 MILLION.
IT IS BIGGER THAN FIVE PROVINCES IN CANADA.
HOWEVER, AT THE ONSET, OUR CHAIRMAN OF REGIONAL COUNCIL, WAYNE EMERSON, HAD CALLED A
MEETING OF ALL THE MAYORS AND MYSELF, AND WE HAD DEBATED THIS ISSUE AS TO WHETHER WE WERE
GOING TO BE SPLITTING UP YORK REGION INTO TARGETED AREAS OR WHETHER WE WERE GOING TO BE
GOING AS A WHOLE, AND THE CONSENSUS WAS THAT WE WERE GOING TO BE MOVING TOGETHER FROM ONE
ZONE TO ANOTHER.
AND THAT ACTUALLY HELPS US IN PUBLIC HEALTH BECAUSE WE HONESTLY DON'T HAVE THE
RESOURCES TO BE ABLE TO HAVE DIFFERENT MESSAGES FOR ONE AREA AND A DIFFERENT MESSAGE FOR
ANOTHER AREA.
AND THERE WAS CONCERN THAT PEOPLE WOULD, IN ANY CASE, MOVE FROM ONE AREA TO ANOTHER AREA.
SO YOU'RE QUITE RIGHT.
THE INCIDENCES DO TEND TO VARY.
PEOPLE FROM VAUGHAN, MARKHAM, AND RICHMOND HILL TEND TO HAVE THE BULK OF THE CASES.
BUT WHEN WE LOOK AT THE INCIDENCE RATES, WE ACTUALLY FIND THAT THERE ISN'T THAT MUCH
OF A DIFFERENCE, AND SOMETIMES THE NORTHERN MUNICIPALITIES ARE SUFFERING JUST AS BADLY.
>> Steve: DR. KURJI, LET ME ASK YOU THIS.
YOU KNOW THERE ARE SOME PEOPLE IN THE 416 WHO THINK THAT THE CAPITAL CITY OUGHT TO OPEN UP A
LOT MORE.
FOR EXAMPLE, ROMAN BABER, WHO IS A MEMBER OF THE ONTARIO LEGISLATURE WHO GOT KICKED OUT
OF THE ONTARIO PC CAUCUS, THE GOVERNING CAUCUS, BECAUSE HE SHARED SOME OF THE SAME VIEWS
YOU DID INASMUCH AS HE'S WORRIED ABOUT MENTAL HEALTH ISSUES AND HE'S WORRIED ABOUT THE EFFECTS
OF LOCKING DOWN TOO MUCH FOR TOO LONG.
YOU'VE BECOME A BIT OF A CHAMPION, I GATHER, FOR THAT GROUP.
HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT THAT?
>> WELL, I THINK I WOULD DEFER FROM THE MPP IN CERTAIN WAYS.
I BELIEVE THAT WE, AS A SOCIETY, HAVE TO MOVE TOGETHER, AND WE HAVE TO RESPECT THE RULE OF LAW.
THERE ARE DECISIONS THAT ARE MADE THAT I DON'T NECESSARILY AGREE WITH, BUT THEN I HAVE TO
RESPECT THAT.
I THINK WE CAN PUT FORWARD OUR DISCUSSIONS.
BUT THE SOCIETY THAT WE LIVE IN HAS TO DISSECT THESE POINTS OF VIEWS AND COME UP WITH
RECOMMENDATIONS, AND ULTIMATELY IT WOULD HAVE TO BE THE PREMIER, AND I BELIEVE THE PREMIER KIND
OF REFERS TO THE LOCAL MOH AND THE CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER OF HEALTH DISCUSSIONS.
SO WE HAVE A PROCESS IN PLACE.
SO I WOULD DEFER FROM THE MPP IN THAT I WOULD RATHER BE LAW ABIDING.
>> Steve: THERE ARE PEOPLE WHO THINK THAT YOU OUGHT TO HAVE YOUR EYES STRICTLY ON THE PUBLIC
HEALTH BALL, AND THEY WORRY THAT YOUR EYE IS ALSO ON THE ECONOMIC BALL, THAT YOU'RE EQUALLY AS
CONCERNED ABOUT THE STATE OF THE ECONOMY IN YORK REGION AS OPPOSED TO JUST PUBLIC HEALTH.
IF THAT'S A CHARGE, HOW DO YOU PLEAD GUILTY -- HOW DO YOU PLEAD TO THAT CHARGE?
>> I MAKE NO APOLOGY FOR IT AT ALL BECAUSE WHERE WE'RE IN USED TO BE CALLED SOCIAL MEDICINE,
THEN IT TRANSLATED INTO COMMUNITY MEDICINE, AND IT'S CALLED PUBLIC HEALTH HERE AND IN
THE U.K. IT'S CALLED PUBLIC HEALTH MEDICINE.
IF YOU GO BACK TO THE ROOTS, WE IN THIS PARTICULAR FIELD HAVE BEEN THE CHAMPIONS OF HEALTH IN
TERMS OF ALL THE DETERMINANTS THAT CONTRIBUTE TO HEALTH.
IN THIS CASE, INCOME IS A VERY IMPORTANT DETERMINANT OF HEALTH, AND THOSE THAT AVOID THAT
CONSIDERATION ARE BEING NOT QUITE TRUTHFUL WITH RESPECT TO THE CONTRIBUTIONS OF HEALTH.
SO I MAKE NO SUCH ANALOGY AT ALL.
>> Steve: IS YOUR APPROACH IN YORK REGION, DO YOU THINK, APPROPRIATE FOR EVERY OTHER
REGION IN THE PROVINCE?
>> UNFORTUNATELY, I DON'T HAVE ACCESS TO THE DATASETS FOR EACH AND EVERY AREA.
AND THE WAY WE PRACTICE PUBLIC HEALTH IN ONTARIO IS WE LEAVE IT TO THE LOCAL MEDICAL OFFICER OF
HEALTH TO BE MAKING THE BEST DECISIONS.
BUT, I MEAN, I'VE TAKEN YOU THROUGH SOME OF THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESSES THAT
WE HAVE USED AND WE USE DATA AS THE GUIDING PRINCIPLE.
YES, THE VARIANTS OF CONCERN ARE OF CONCERN.
BUT WE DON'T THINK THAT THERE WILL BE ANY EXPLOSIVE GROWTH, AND EVEN IF THERE IS, WE DON'T
THINK THAT THE EMERGENCY BRAKE IS GOING TO BE STOPPING THAT.
OUR BEST BET IS TO GO THROUGH THE VACCINATIONS AS FAST AS POSSIBLE, GET TO THE VARIANTS OF
CONCERN, WHICH ARE MAINLY BEING TRANSMITTED AMONGST THE YOUNGER PEOPLE, AGES 40 TO 55 AND EVEN
YOUNGER, AND WE'VE GOT TO GET TO VACCINATING THEM AS FAST AS POSSIBLE.
AND I THINK THE PROVINCE HAS GOT THIS RIGHT.
FIRST ATTACK THOSE INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE MOST LIKELY TO DIE AND THEN THOSE LIKELY TO BE
TRANSMITTING DISEASE.
>> Steve: LET'S FINISH UP ON THIS THEN.
IT'S BEEN A FREQUENT SITUATION THAT DR. BROWN, FOR EXAMPLE, AND OTHER PUBLIC HEALTH OFFICIALS,
THEY HAVE BRIEFINGS FOR THE PREMIER, THEY HAVE BRIEFINGS FOR THE MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC, THEY
ARE TELEVISED, AND FREQUENTLY THEY BRING OUT CHARTS THAT ARE NOT LIKE YOURS AT ALL.
YOUR CHARTS GO DOWN LIKE THIS.
THEIR CHARTS GO LIKE THIS.
IN THAT IF WE DON'T DO WHAT BROWN AND COMPANY SAY, OUR RATES ARE GOING TO GO UP TO THE
HEAVENS.
WHEN YOU SEE THOSE PROGNOSTICATIONS, WHAT GOES THROUGH YOUR MIND?
>> AGAIN, I BRING YOU BACK TO WHAT SIR JEFFREY ROSE HAD SAID: EPIDEMIOLOGIST IS A MEANS OF
GETTING TO THE TRUTH.
MODELLING, IN MY MIND, IS REALLY A TOOL AND IT'S SOMETHING THAT TELLS US WHAT MIGHT HAPPEN IF WE
DID BRING IN THE RIGHT INTERVENTIONS.
IN YORK REGION, WE HAVE EXCELLENT CASES IN CONTACT FOLLOW-UP, THAT'S A SPECIFIC
TARGETED INTERVENTION, AND WE KEEP ON THINKING OF NEW SPECIFICALLY TARGETED
INTERVENTIONS SO THAT WE DON'T ACTUALLY END UP WITH THOSE SORTS OF PROJECTIONS.
HOWEVER, I WOULD NOT WISH TO DICTATE HOW I MANAGE AN EPIDEMIC WITH JUST MODELS.
MODELS ARE JUST ONE TOOL THAT ARE AVAILABLE.
>> Steve: GOTCHA.
DOCTOR KARIM KURJI, IT'S SO GOOD OF YOU TO SPEND TIME WITH US ON TVO TONIGHT.THANKS VERY MUCH.
>> THANKS SO MUCH FOR HAVING ME, STEVE. TAKE CARE.