Hey folks, Dan Frio here with your daily rate update, where we try to
figure out what's going on with housing, what's going on with the markets, what
in the world's going on with the Fed.
So that's our topic today, what the Federal Reserves doing and why
they're doing what they're doing.
The why part is getting a little more tricky.
So let's get over to the main news that we have out today.
So what we're seeing in the main news right now is today's top stories.
Hunter Biden Pleads Guilty.
Rescuers are racing the clock to for a man's submarine that was lost.
That's terrible.
With festivals and reflections, American March.
Juneteenth awesome.
Biden announces funding to combat climate change.
We're in a huge deficit already.
Why not just keep spending more and more money by the bazillions?
Okay.
Whatever tropical storm Brett expected to intensify his hurricane centers, put
something and at least 16 shot after Milwaukee Juneteenth celebrations.
This is our top news folks.
Do you see where I'm like, all it is doom and gloom.
So I'm trying to give you at least context in today's world with some at least
substance that you guys can bank on.
So let's get over to the real news.
What we're seeing in the real news right now with when it comes to economics is
some surprising things that just came out yesterday when we weren't open.
Home builder sentiment came in and it was positive for
the first time in a long time.
It was an uptick.
First time in over a year, we went from a a billing sentiment of 50 to 55.
The expectation would go to 50 to 51.
It jumped all the way to 55.
Now, here's the interesting thing.
This just came out today.
Housing starts.
Remember I keep saying we need more and more houses to hit the market?
We don't need too many because that will, you know, bring down prices.
But we need enough.
So you guys, if you're out there looking for a house, you at least have some
inventory because people that own houses right now and had lived in there, they're
not putting those houses back on the market and it's getting really scary.
So we wanna look at is housing starts?
What's going on?
Well, the last time we had this reading, it came in at 1.4
million houses were being built.
The expectations this time were basically to stay steady, right
around there at 1.39, 1.4.
It came in at 1.63 and builder's confidence just spiked.
So what's going on?
Well, one thing is people are getting more, used to hate to say it this way,
more used to higher rates, and they're seeing that home prices aren't, Crashing.
So they've been sitting on the sideline for two years waiting for all this
to happen, and they're still sitting there and sitting there waiting.
When is this gonna happen So I can jump in the market?
Well, it's not happening yet, folks.
We don't think it's gonna happen.
And so if you've been out there, this is only good news for you guys.
There's more and more houses coming to the market.
You can see that also in the charts.
So why I bring up the charts is, remember everybody keeps saying is,
well, the housing market's gonna crash and it's gonna be worse than last time.
Well, here's what happened last time.
This is basically the implosion of the housing market in 2008.
Look at this drop.
We went from here all the way down to here.
Okay, so everybody says it's gonna be worse than that.
Well, we're here and we went to here.
Now he spiked back up almost midway to that.
So is it over?
Was that to crash?
Only time's going to tell.
So the next piece of this puzzle is, let's get over to, here's the confusing part.
Federal Reserve came out last week or the week before, and then they halted.
They paused interest rates and they said, we're gonna let
this data, you know, settle.
We're gonna monitor.
And everybody kept reading into the tea leaves saying they're
gonna raise rates two more times.
Well, they never really said that specifically, but they might have
interviewed a lot of these Fed officials because Did they pause just
to appease the markets this time?
Well, let's get over to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
This is just within days of the Federal Reserve coming out and saying, okay,
we're gonna pause rates right now.
So what's what?
What are the markets telling us?
So for that, we go to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
Why?
Well, they have a Fed Watch tool, and it's right here.
What is the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will change the federal target
rate at the upcoming FOMC meeting?
Okay, the meeting is coming out in July 6th.
So here's what we're seeing.
Here's the probabilities.
What are we seeing now?
And basically, this wasn't even on the charts, you know?
Three, four weeks ago, these areas here, but they are now.
Now what the chart is saying is there's a over a 70% probability that the Federal
Reserve is gonna raise rates in July.
So what do I expect of all this?
I dont know, folks, I don't know.
I think here's what's gonna happen.
The data's gonna continue to come in better and better.
Showing inflation does have a cap on it, and it has been driving down fast.
Think of it last June.
We're at 9% right now.
We're at, 4%.
So we're quite a ways from where we started all this.
So without further ado, what is the news today?
How's it affecting where bond market's going right now?
Well, to do this, we go over to this and what way I wanna focus in on right now,
this is what you see on my screen all day.
If you walked into my office, this is one of my screens.
Why do I watch this?
Well, I'm a mortgage advisor, so I wanna figure out what's going on with rates
and specifically the why behind it.
So we don't look at the 10 year treasury because we did that when we were in our.
Early stages of being in the mortgage industry, but as we mature in this
industry, we move over to the Mortgage Backed Securities market because it's
the bond that trades on Wall Street that controls mortgage rates basically.
So why watch the 10-year treasury when we have the MBS market?
So we're seeing right here on your screen is the MBS price right now is 98.7.
If you squint, you can see it's up 17 ticks.
All you need to know is this, behind this.
If this number, what you're seeing on the screen, the price of the Mortgage Backed
Security bond, if the price is going up, that means rates or yields are going down.
There's a flip flop, an inverse relationship.
Now the bigger the move here in the number no, that makes means the
bigger the adjustment in the rates.
So we're seeing MBS prices up 17 ticks right now that might, you
know, bring rates down by 0.03 maybe.
But let's get over to see where we ended the day.
Last Friday, that's the last trading day that we had.
So here's where mortgage rates were at the end of last Friday.
I pulled these up.
These are from Mortgage News Daily, so if you wanna see these rates
on a daily basis, you can check out, there's a link down below.
So what actually Mortgage News Daily does is they survey lenders all over
the country, and they say this, if you had a borrower looking to buy, their
first house is gonna be their primary home and a single family home, those
three things, and they have a 740 credit score and they're putting down 20%.
That would be what the rates are.
Okay.
So you might say, Dan, you quoted me a rate last week, and the rate's
a little bit higher than that.
Well, was that your criteria?
Are you putting down 20%?
Do you have a 740 credit score?
So if you did all those, your rates most likely just like that.
If not, your rate's gonna vary from that.
How do you figure out what you qualify for?
How much can you qualify for?
What's your rate?
What can you do?
Well, just visit us at TheRateUpdate.com.
We'd love to answer any questions that you have.
So if you're out there, you're kicking the tires saying, you know, can I buy a house?
Can I afford a house?
What would my payments be?
What do I need to do?
What are these steps?
How do I find a realtor?
We can answer all these questions for you.
How do you do it?
Well, there's three simple steps.
One is, you can give us a call (844) 775-5626.
That's one.
Or you're like, Dan, I just wanna apply.
Let you guys help me.
Well then just click the Apply Now button.
It's right over here.
Or what you can do is if you're like, and I really have a lot of
questions for you guys, I would love to talk to somebody first.
Well, we can do that as well.
There's a link down below to schedule a one-on-one consult consultation with
me or one of my mortgage advisors to answer any questions that you guys have.
So that's it for today, guys.
I greatly appreciate you watching.
Please.
All I ask you to do is gimme a thumbs up, subscribe down below, and hit the bell.
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God bless.
Have a fantastic day.
See you tomorrow.
Bye-bye.