"It all began with Crimea, and it will end with Crimea" – Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
Hey there VisualPolitik community, the Crimean peninsula is the real elephant
in the room of all discussions about the Ukrainian war. For years, it was
something like the Ibiza of Ukraine, now it is a real bone of contention.
You see, the thing is... the Ukrainians want it back. But it is not at all clear that the
United States and Europe will help them in this particular territory. And it’s not just
us saying this. This is coming from Antony Blinken himself – the US Secretary of State. Check it out.
(Antony Blinken 'warns Ukraine' against retaking Crimea. US Secretary of State fears that efforts
to reclaim the annexed peninsula would be a red line for Vladimir Putin. – The Telegraph)
That’s right! And why, you may ask? Well, for two reasons. The first is that, at first glance,
regaining Crimea seems an impossible mission. The second and more important is that Crimea
could be reason enough for Putin to press the nuclear button. You see, for the Russians,
this peninsula is not even considered a part of Ukraine: it is a separate territory.
There is even a well-known song, “Sdelan v SSSR", "Made in the USSR". The Aliexpress
version of the legendary "Born in the USA" which starts by saying "Ukraine and Crimea,
Belarus and Moldova, That's my country!" Only, unlike the Bruce Springsteen track,
which is a protest song, this one is an ultra-nationalistic track. "Ukraine and Crimea,
Moldova and Belarus".... In other words, in the Russian imagination,
Crimea is a distinct territory, a very unique place with its own clearly differentiated status.
And they have certain reasons to think so: the Crimean peninsula has its own history,
quite different from that of the rest of Ukraine. From a geopolitical point of view,
it is a real bonus prize. You could say that Putin really hit the jackpot in 2014. In fact,
it was the only territory that was annexed without any regard. I mean, when the Russians came to
Ukraine in 2014, they did not annex the Donbas. At least, not officially. However, the Kremlin
considers Crimea to be as Russian as St. Petersburg itself. In short:
Kyiv wants Crimea back, Moscow is ready to do anything to prevent it, and Washington is not
clear that it will take sides in this case. So in today's video we are going to ask: Why is Crimea
so important for Russia? How could Ukraine get it back? And finally, what scenarios might we expect?
Today we're going to answer these questions, but first, let's look at a little bit of history.
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By now, you probably all have the map of Crimea in your head. Nevertheless, the devil is in the
details. So, before we get into the HISTORY of this territory, let's focus on its geography.
The Crimean peninsula is inhabited by 2.4 million people.
The most important city is SEBASTOPOL, with 547,000 inhabitants. That is where
the headquarters of Russia's Black Sea naval fleet is now located.Controlling this enclave
means controlling the entire Sea of Azov and the entire northern Black Sea. In fact, until 2014,
Ukraine had 12 operational ports on its coast. For Russia it means Crimea is vital to have an
outlet to the Black Sea and the Mediterranean Sea. It is one of its few warm water ports.
In addition, its territorial waters have proven gas fields. On the one
hand we have the Skifska fields, east of the peninsula. On the other,
those in the Sea of Azov. In this case, it would be relatively easy to exploit this gas
because the Azov Sea is the shallowest sea in the world: it does not exceed 15 meters).
But the most
important thing about Crimea is that it is perfectly protected by its geography. Taking it
by sea is mission impossible for Ukraine. Remember that Russia has its entire Black Sea fleet here.
And you will probably say, let them take it by land, then. Not so fast! I have already told you
that the devil is in the details. At first glance, Crimea looks like just another peninsula... but
when we approach the isthmus that connects Crimea with Ukraine, we find.... The devil himself!
As you can see, this whole area is full of lakes and marshy areas. Actually,
there are only three points connecting the peninsula with Ukraine. This you see here is
the PEREKOP isthmus, which is between 5 and 7 kilometers wide. Russia has already fortified
it with endless trenches and dragon's teeth. On the other side, we have the CHONHAR peninsula,
through which passes a highway surrounded by lakes. Again, a very easy entrance to protect.
Finally, we have the "ARABAT point". Another place that the Russians could easily block.
In other words, to enter Crimea by land is almost impossible. But could it be possible?
Everything is possible in this war. At this point we cannot rule out another coup d'état
in Russia or any other scenario. Even so, entering Crimea would be a military operation
as ambitious as the Normandy landings. So, now that we have seen the geography,
let's get to the history... because, believe me, there are many details we need to understand.
(LAND OF INVASIONS)
We have seen that Crimea is very difficult to invade. However, throughout history, there are
countless empires that have tried. This peninsula is of enormous geopolitical importance. In fact,
it is no coincidence that the Yalta Conference, which for many was the beginning of the Cold War,
was held in.... Yalta! Which is a city that is here, in Crimea.
Between 1238 and 1449, the peninsula belonged to the Mongol Empire. Then, between 1448 and
1783 it was a khanate subordinated to the Ottoman Empire. That explains why part of the
Crimean population are the so-called Crimean TARTARS, who are Muslims. Finally, in 1783,
the Russian Empire took advantage of the weakness of the Ottomans to invade this territory.And yes,
in this case, they entered the Crimean peninsula by land. In fact, they tried in three different
campaigns over several years. Did they manage to take it? Yes! But not without paying a very
high price. In any case, the Tsars took this territory, which became part of the so-called
"NOVOROSIYA" or "New Russia": which included other areas such as Odessa, in today's Ukraine.
From the very beginning, the Russian Tsars had a problem with the local population: the Tatars were
Muslims and did not accept the authority of the Orthodox Christians. So, from Moscow they adopted
their typical strategy: RUSIFY Crimea by sending population from other areas. But wait a moment
because the story doesn’t end here! As I told you, Crimea is too juicy to be left uninvaded for long.
This is how the so-called "Crimean War" broke out in 1853. In this case, Russia faced the troops of
the Ottomans, the British and the French. And what role did France and the United Kingdom
play in this story? Very simple: they wanted to support the Ottoman Empire – today's Turkey – in
order to prevent... Russian expansionism! As you can see, this Russian expansionism is nothing new.
And what seemed an impregnable fortress ended up falling into the hands of the
English and the French. In this case, they managed to take Sebastopol by sea! Even so,
it was a Pyrrhic victory. It turned out that cholera and dysentery ended up killing tens
of thousands of soldiers... and Russia ultimately held the territory until 1917.
And what happened in 1917, you say? Exactly! The Russian civil war. In this case, the Crimean
Tatars took advantage of the instability in Moscow to proclaim the "Crimean People's Republic". But
this new republic was short-lived. It was soon retaken by the Bolsheviks. For the following
decades, this was a Republic within the Russian Federation which, in turn, was within the Soviet
Union. Up until 1941. And what happened in 1941? Well, the Germans invaded again. In this case,
the Nazi army entered through the Kerch Strait. But, once again, the Soviet troops got it back.
This time it was Stalin who made the most typical Moscow move: to RUSIFY the area
again. How? By deporting 200,000 Tartars and sending in Russian population from other areas.
And you may be wondering, but when did Crimea become part of Ukraine? Well,
we have to wait until 1954. That’s when the then Soviet leader, NIKITA KHRUSHCHEV, decided that
the Crimean Peninsula would be transferred from the Russian Soviet to the Ukrainian Soviet. He
did so for a purely logistical reason. The most logical route to send resources to this peninsula
goes through Ukraine. So the most logical thing is that this area should be managed
from Kyiv. After all, what did it matter? Whether it was Russia or Ukraine, it would still be part
of the Soviet Union. At that time the fall and dissolution of the USSR was not being considered.
And that is how Crimea became a favorite holiday destination for Soviet elites. In fact,
many high ranking party officials had a vacation residence in the area. And that brings us to 1991:
the year when Ukraine became independent. So what has happened since then? We are going to
take a look at that right now. (THE IBIZA OF UKRAINE)
Let me present to you... the Republic of KAZANTIP Calm down! This is not a new country. For years,
the Republic of Kazantip was something like the mother of all raves. A massive beach party that
attracted people from all over Europe. Crimea was also the Ibiza of Ukraine: dreamy beaches,
glamorous parties and all at much cheaper prices than the original Ibiza. And the comparison with
Ibiza is not by chance. From the political point of view, Crimea was a kind of ISLAND
within Ukraine. If you are veteran followers of VisualPolitik, you already know that this
country was divided into two large populations: Russian-speaking and Ukrainian-speaking. The
best evidence of this are the electoral maps – the areas with more Russian speakers used to be
won by the parties closer to Russian culture and were typically more sensitive to ties with Russia.
As you can see, Crimea has always voted for parties that advocate more for ethnic Russians.
In this area, almost 95% of the population speaks Russian. And this is noticeable in all elections,
both legislative and presidential. All this explains why the Euromaidan revolts did not
go down particularly well in this area. And this is when the famous "little green men" arrived.
(Russian Forces In Crimea: Who Are They And Where Did They Come From – RFERL)
In 2014, Russia sent undercover troops to Crimea. They did not carry any flags and,
therefore, they were called "the little green men". That is, Russia militarily invaded Crimea
and held a referendum on being annexed to Russia. 95% of the population voted in favor. And at this
point we could ask, Was it really a democratic referendum? ((GUFFAW)) Obviously not. Now, it is
very reasonable to think that a good part of the population was in favor of joining Russia. And, of
course, those who were not in favor suffered the classic repression by Moscow, with savage tortures
included. And you are probably wondering, are people in Crimea happy to be part of Russia? Well,
we are going to take a look at that right now. (THE JEWEL OF PUTIN'S EMPIRE)
The first thing the Crimeans noticed as soon as they were invaded by the Russians was that...
the Republic of Kazantip disappeared. It was the end of raves... and there was a monumental
drop in tourism. Those were difficult years for the local economy. Almost all
Ukrainian companies supplying the peninsula disappeared overnight. And the sanctions of
the West ended up sinking the little business activity that was left. Nevertheless... Putin
was clear that Crimea was his No. 1 priority. Since then, Putin has reverted to the classic
Russification strategy: 140,000 Tatars have left Crimea... and, in their place, more than 250,000
Russians have arrived. But not only that! Since 2014, Moscow has taken resources away from all
over the country to send them to Crimea. Yes, it's true... the inhabitants of other
parts of Russia will not be very happy with this move. But for Putin the most important
thing was that the Crimean economy did not end up imploding and people turned against him. In
total they have given more than $10 billion in subsidies. But, above all, they have managed to
push through the most symbolic project of the entire Putin administration: the KERCH bridge.
We are talking about the crown jewel of Russian infrastructure. If you are long-time followers
of VisualPolitik you already know that Russia has a serious infrastructure problem throughout the
country. Especially when it comes to bridges. Well, now Russia can say that it has built the
longest bridge in Europe. A feat that, until then, was reserved for the Vasco de Gama Bridge
in Lisbon. The Kerch Bridge connects Russia with the Crimean peninsula over 19 kilometers,
that’s almost 12 miles of four-lane road. Until 2022, it was crossed daily by more than
15,000 cars. This bridge is the umbilical cord linking Crimea
with Russia. And it has also given a boost to its economy.
But we are not only talking about infrastructure! Moscow has turned
this peninsula into a real military fortress. And the question now is, could Ukraine take it back?
(GEOGRAPHY: A DOUBLE-EDGED SWORD)
There are more than 130 rivers and streams originating in the Crimean mountains... yet
this peninsula has been suffering from water shortages for years. We have said that it is
an impregnable geographical fortress... but that is also a weakness: the only way to supply Crimea
by land is through the roads connecting it to Ukraine... or by the Kerch Bridge.
Well, both arteries are relatively easy to attack. In fact, they have already been attacked.
Check it out.(Kerch bridge linking Russia to Crimea damaged in explosion. – Al Jazeera)
But that is not all! Do you remember that Crimea is connected with Ukraine by very few points?
One such point is the Chonhar peninsula... which is almost touching Crimea. Here there
is a small bridge over which a highway passes. So... look what happened.
(Ukraine strikes Chonhar bridge to Crimea, says Russia – CNN)
In both cases, we are talking about very limited attacks. The damage is relatively easy to repair.
But they tell us one thing: they are not 100% safe. That is, from their current position,
Ukraine is capable of attacking. Now imagine what could happen if Ukrainian forces approached this
area even closer. And you will ask, is that happening? Well... it certainly is. In fact,
much of the Ukrainian counteroffensive is focusing precisely on this region.
This you see here is the Zaporizhia region, which is very close to Crimea. At the time of
making this video, Ukrainian troops appeared to be aiming to advance in the direction of MELITOPOL.
If they were to conquer this area, it would be much easier to attack all the arteries
connecting Crimea. To do something like that, they would need long-range missiles. In fact,
this is one of the reasons why Washington is still reluctant to send such weaponry.
But if they end up doing so, these missiles could work like a charm.
With this strategy, they cut Crimea off, both from water and other resources. Russia would
only be able to supply its precious peninsula by sea... which would make
things extremely difficult for them. It is almost impossible to supply fuel and
ammunition in large quantities via aircraft. In other words, there is a possibility that
Ukraine could leave the Crimeans without resources and wait for months to pass.
Gradually, the troops protecting Crimea would run out of resources to defend themselves. At
that point, it would be easier to start a ground attack. Even so, we would still
be talking about a brute force operation in the purest "D-Day landing" style: Ukraine would have
to send huge numbers of troops knowing that it would be sacrificing thousands of lives.
Is it possible that we will see this scenario? Yes. Now then... What risks would it entail?
The first one is that it is one thing to get to Crimea and another to take it over
completely. Remember that we are talking about an area where there has always been
a fairly strong Russian sentiment. What’s more, for eight long years, Putin has been
in charge of steadily "Russifying" this area. Both with repression and with economic aid,
not to mention also sending tens of thousands of settlers. In other words... Crimea is not Kharkiv,
and it is quite possible that local people would not welcome Ukrainian troops with open
arms. However... it is also quite possible that they will not resist. We have already seen how
the Russians of ROSTOV DEL DON did not lift a finger when Wagner's tanks were passing by.
The second risk we could face is the one we mentioned at the beginning of the video:
if Putin sees that Crimea is about to fall, who knows, maybe he could push the nuclear
button against Ukraine. The question is, is he really capable of doing something like that?
On the one hand, we would be talking about a real challenge, which would have catastrophic
consequences. Not only because of the West's response, but also because of his alliances
with China and other countries. On the other hand, given the little control Putin has over his own
people, it is not clear whether his generals would obey the order. Given
what we have seen... we cannot even be sure that they would not revolt first.
But that brings up another big question. Can Ukraine afford to forget about Crimea? Well,
perhaps they could, but it would be difficult. As long as Crimea remains part of Russia,
no one will be able to sleep peacefully in Kyiv. Even if they were to sign peace with
Russia. Moscow would control the Sea of Azov and could cut off grain exports from such important
ports for Ukraine as Mariupol or Berdyansk, in the event, of course, they were to recover.
In addition, Russia would likely maintain a perfect military base to invade Ukraine again,
this time from the South. And here we come to the great dilemma of Crimea:
it is not in Ukraine's interest for it to remain Russian... but, at the same time,
recovering it would be very expensive. A last and quite probable scenario is that a special
status will be negotiated. That is to say: that in a hypothetical peace negotiation, Crimea ends
up being an independent and demilitarized republic. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian.
In any case, now the questions are for you, do you think Ukraine will try to take Crimea militarily,
or will it end up negotiating a special status for this peninsula? You can leave me your answer in
the comments. As always, don't forget that here, on VisualPolitik, we release new videos every
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If you liked this video, LIKE it and see you in the next one. All the best and see you soon.