I'm just facing some camera issues, so bear with me, anyway.
As we can see, Tesla is certainly on a run.
The technical analysts are saying to 250 to 260 possibly, and if it can make that then
possibly even 300 again.
There is a gap to be filled, there is no resistance, smart money is going to buy in, and all the
other usual technical analysis we tend to hear.
Of course reading tea leaves often produces similar results.
But either way, there are a lot of excited Tesla bulls right now on this run.
Does this seem unbelievable, but so is Nvidia at around a trillion dollars, or Meta, Microsoft,
Apple and Google all at their 52 week highs.
Or even Amazon not far off either.
The market is trying to establish right now, how much of Tesla is a car company and how
much of it is a tech, AI, robotics growth company, and recalculating the p/e ratio accordingly.
We know that there is little reason to expect any dramatic growth in Tesla's earnings over
the next year or even longer.
Perhaps Lathrop Megapack factory getting ramped is the best chance, but it won't be substantial
comparative to a $300 stock price.
Yes, the Cybertruck is coming out this year hopefully, but that will actually reduce profits
until perhaps mid next year, when it starts to ramp up.
Yet Tesla's stock price could still run, because it looks like AI is going to be big, and Tesla
have invested in AI in a big way.
With an application that has the potential to make an absolute fortune, by saving many
people an hour or two of concentration on driving a car each and every day, where they
could instead focus on something much more enjoyable or productive.
That is the real benefit Tesla is trying to offer, selling you time and massive convenience,
along with improved safety.
The market has acknowledged it thinks AI is going to be huge, and will be the next bubble.
If Tesla can show continued progress and improvement, and some step changes along the way, along
with Elon and his team of engineers convincing investors that this will be achieved.
Then the market will move Tesla.
Even if it's not solved until the end of the decade but looks extremely likely, then we
know there is a value there of around 5 trillion.
And the end of the decade is only 6 and a half years away now.
It doesn't even feel that long away.
Of course we would expect more progress earlier than that and potentially Robotaxis which
is probably a $10 trillion valuation.
And if Tesla can solve the complexity of FSD with cars, then there's a high possibility
it can be solved with robots too.
When the stock starts to run more then it also starts to convince people more too.
Investors start to think, what has the market realized that they haven't, are they now understanding
Tesla's full potential, and the fact that deliveries are not increasing 50% year over
year, and margins are down, doesn't matter.
Tesla is not a car company, but a company simply laying the foundation of the hardware,
for the future software.
Elon even comparing to the shaver industry, and how they practically give away the shavers,
and make the money on the razors.
It almost feels like Tesla are giving away these cars, well ok not literally, but the
Model 3 now qualifying for the full $7,500 tax credit again is insane value.
The thing is, Tesla's FSD subscription will cost significantly more than razor blades,
with an even higher profit margin.
Also its such an important feature, that surely other legacy autos will want to incorporate
it, and obviously none are close to anything like Tesla's.
Seeing the likes of Ford willing to swallow their pride and praise Tesla, and partner
with them, will possibly mean they are open to Tesla FSD licensing too, something which
Elon has said he is willing to offer.
Thus expanding Tesla's reach significantly, at leas if it includes ICE cars, which perhaps
it wont.
On the other hand Ford have invested an absolute fortune into EVs too, and we will see their
EV offering expanding significantly over the next few years.
And of course Tesla can probably offer FSD in a $25 to 30,000 compact too.
It wont be so much the an EV people are buying the compact for, but instead as an AV, to
be driving autonomously, for such a low starting cost, and then just an ongoing monthly subscription.
The reveal of this car will add more wind into the sails for Tesla's run, an event of
which could be announced any day, along with Tesla breaking ground on the factory.
When Tesla's stock price is already running, and you add a few events like this, it really
starts to run.
And we have one coming up very soon, the Model 3 Highland release, which I expect we might
get to the reveal any day now, hopefully this week.
It sounds like in Shanghai initially.
Perhaps accompanied with some other surprises that Tesla have been working in behind the
scenes.
Surely all those engineers have been up to something over the last few years, that we
have yet to see.
When the stock is on the move, it is a great time for Tesla to start announcing, revealing
and taking action.
We have seen this in the past and it adds significant momentum to the stock price.
There are some events coming that could certainly do this too.
I think advertising is going to be great, I am sure it will help sales, but I think
seeing the ads too, will put Tesla in a new light, and actually affect the stock price
just through the ads.
To think Tesla have achieved this much so far without advertising is really remarkable.
I think Tesla should actually be spending hundreds of millions a year on advertising,
at least when the Model 3 Highland and Model Y Juniper is out.
Then as they ramp up, potentially spend even more, especially if FSD makes some step changes.
The majority of new car buyers do not realize just how amazing FSD is already.
They also don't realize how low a cost a Tesla is, not just the no fuel savings, but the
new stick prices accompanied by tax credits.
I definitely think Tesla should promote this fact.
It will very likely continue this Tesla bull run.
Then if Tesla break ground in Mexico, which surely can't be too far away now, again another
catalyst.
And then announced a reveal of what exactly it is they are going to build in there.
I mean that day has to be coming sometime.
They aren't going to keep it a secret until the first one comes off the production line.
Anyway, there are some good catalysts still coming.
And maybe if the stock can keep running with a few these, it can keep running for a few
months all the way to the Cybertruck production.
This could really make the stock run to 300 again.
As long as the macros don't get too crazy along the way.
But Cybertruck probably is still some time away, and a lot could happen in that time,
both negative or positive.
So it can be hard to judge.
My point is it is a possibilty.
And I know most of you are holding for years more, or never selling and all that.
But it still feels better holding something that is in the money, than down.
It still feels good seeing your net worth rise, even if it just on paper, compare to
it falling.
The main thing to make Tesla run, will be the market deciding what kind of company Tesla
is.
Is it more of an AI, tech, robotics company, or is it more like a car company.
The market is weighing these two elements on scales.
And whenever Tesla demonstrate that they can achieve what they set out, albeit often a
couple of years late, then the scales tilt more in favor of Tesla being a tech company,
and the fact they can achieve what they have set out to.
It also gives the scales momentum too, and that if investors see that the market is judging
Tesla more of a tech company, then the narrative becomes easier to believe and more buy in,
etc.
And it does potentially bubble.
It may shoot up close to all time highs again, perhaps mid 300s or something crazy, because
it gets too exciting.
But remember Tesla will always be a slow growth company, as it takes so long to build out
enough factories for cars, when compared to smartphones.
So the excitement gets intense for a while, but then we go back to waiting.
Waiting for factories to built, or ramped.
Waiting for FSD to be solved that much further, waiting for 4680 cells to get to another level.
And then the stock price loses its energy a bit.
Tesla's Robots may actually get ahead, it's a much smaller product to manufacturer than
cars, and lower cost, with potentially higher margins.
And it can be scaled much faster.
That could end up really surprising people.
It will just come down to finding some applications that replace human labor, which doesn't even
look that far away at times.
So yea, plenty of reasons for Tesla's stock price to get back to the levels we like to
see, it will just take a paradigm shift, which often happens.