IT HAS IN PLAY WITH RUSSIA RIGHT
NOW.
LET US BRING IN ALL STORE FLOOR
SHOW RETIRED ARMY GENERAL
ANTHONY TATA SAYS PUTIN’S END
GAME IS TO SEIZE KIEV, WHAT NATO
AND THE U.S. NEED TO DO NOW TO
STOP HIM, OIL ASSOCIATES PRESS
ANDY LIPPOW, ON HOW HIGH NAT GAS
AND OIL PRICES COULD GO, RAYMOND
JAMES POLICY ANALYST ED MILLS
AND THAT ALLIANCE ANDY BRENNER
ON THE MESSAGE THE
BOND MARKET IS SCREAMING OUT
TO INVESTORS, LET ME BRING IN
GENERAL TATA, IT’S 10 P.M. IN
UKRAINE AND FOR ALL INTENSE AND
PURPOSES PUTIN HAS SEIZED TWO
REGIONS IN THE EAST, DENESK.
WHAT DO YOU BELIEVE IS HIS NEXT
MOVE, GENERAL?
>> HE BROUGHT IN ELITE TROOPS,
PARATROOPERS FROM THE NORTH TWO
DIVISIONS TO DIVISIONS FROM THE
EAST TO SEIZE THOSE REGIONS
HE’S GOING TO MOVE ALL THE WAY
TO THE WESTERN BORDER, THOSE
REGIONS, PULL IN HIS
LOGISTICS, TUCK IT UP TIGHT
UNDERNEATH THOSE UNITS SO HE CAN
CONTINUE TO PUSH FORWARD WEST
ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE COUNTRY,
AND WHAT THE PRESIDENT TALKED
ABOUT IS REINFORCING THE BAT IC
STATES TO THE NORTH AND YOU HAVE
ROMANIA AND BULGARIA TO THE
SOUTH ALL NATO NATIONS AND
POLAND, SLOVAKIA AND CZECH
REPUBLIC TO THE WEST AND SO THIS
IS A REAL ISSUE HERE AS
PUTIN CAVS OUT THE REST OF
UKRAINE TO USE AS A STAGING BASE
TO PUT PRESSURE ON NATO.
LIZ: WELL, YES, EXACTLY, AND
HERE YOU GO YOU LOOK AT THE MAP
AND YOU SEE AND WHAT WE DON’T
SEE ARE BELARUS IS NOT PUT IN
HERE BUT BELARUS IS AN ISSUE
BECAUSE THAT LEADERSHIP IS PRO-
PUTIN AND YOU MENTIONED OF
COURSE ROMANIA AND WHO KNOWS
WHAT HE WANTS NEXT.
YOU DO BELIEVE HE DOES, BUT
GENERAL, WHEN WE LOOK AT SAY FOR
EXAMPLE, THE TENOR IN THE
FIELD THIS NATION HAS FOR
GETTING INVOLVED IN
SOMETHING LIKE THIS , THE NEW
YORK POST HAS AN OP-ED TODAY
CALLING VLADIMIR PUTIN AND IT’S
PRETTY STARK, IT SAYS MADMAN,
PUTIN MUST BE STOPPED NOW.
HOW DO WE DO THAT, GENERAL?
>> WELL I THINK THE FIRST ORDER
, LIZ, IS TO TIGHTEN UP
NATO, IT’S FRACTURED AFTER
AFGHANISTAN THAT WAS NOT A GOOD
SHOWING FOR US OR FOR NATO.
WE LEFT NATO NATIONS OUT THERE
TO HANG, AND SO NOW WE’VE GOT TO
REGROUP NATO AND HAVE SOME
LEADERSHIP THERE, AND WE’VE GOT
TO GET AIR DEFENSE, AND MISSILE
DEFENSE INTO ALL OF OUR ALLIED
NATIONS ALONG THAT BORDER IF YOU
WILL BETWEEN NATO AND WHAT IS
SOON BECOME THE RUSSIAN
REPUBLICS TO THE EAST BELARUS
AND UKRAINE, AND THAT’S THE KEY
AS WE GET INTO A FIRM DEFENSIVE
POSTURE IT’S ALMOST A COLD WAR
FEEL TO IT WHERE WE POSITION
TANKS AND AIRPLANES TO BE ABLE
TO HANDLE THE RUSSIAN HORDE WE
TALKED ABOUT FOR DECADES AND
DECADES.
LIZ: OKAY WELL LET ME BRING IN
ANDY LIPPOW, BECAUSE THE OIL &
GAS PICTURE IS EXTRAORDINARILY
IMPORTANT AND THIS IS A
WORLDWIDE ISSUE, NOT JUST IN
EASTERN EUROPE BECAUSE YOU
STARTED TO SEE THE REACTION HERE
AND I’M NOT SURE THAT’S REALLY
WARRANTED, BUT HEY THE MARKET IS
GOING TO BE A VOTING MACHINE AT
THE MOMENT AND IT’S VOTING THAT
THERE WILL BE A SHORTAGE.
IS THE MARKET CORRECT, ANDY?
>> WELL I’M NOT SO SURE THEY
ARE CORRECT BUT THE PRICES HAVE
BEEN RISING IN ANTICIPATION OF A
SUPPLY DISRUPTION GIVEN THAT
RUSSIA SUPPLIES EUROPE WITH
ABOUT 3 MILLION-BARRELS A DAY OF
CRUDE OIL AND REFINED PRODUCTS.
I THINK IF THERE WAS A SUPPLY
DISRUPTION THERE BE AN IMMENSE
AMOUNT OF PRESSURE ON SAUDI
ARABIA, THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATE
AND KUWAIT TO FILL THE SUPPLY
SHORTFALL BECAUSE THEY DO HAVE
THE SPARE PRODUCTION CAPACITY TO
DO IT.
LIZ: OKAY AND WHEN WE LOOK AT
EXACTLY WHAT’S GOING ON WITH
GERMANY, GERMANY HAS SUSPENDED
THE CERTIFICATION PROCESS OF THE
NORD STREAM 2 PIPELINE, BUT
WE KIND OF KNEW THAT WAS COMING.
IT’S PRETTY IMPRESSIVE TO SEE
THAT GERMANY IS BEING VERY
FORCEFUL WHEN IT COMES TO THAT,
BUT WHAT STRUCK ME TOO IS THAT
WE NOW HAVE IN ANOTHER RUSSIAN
PIPELINE, NATURAL GAS REVERSING
ITS DIRECTION AND FLOWING EAST.
THIS IS RUSSIA’S YAMAL EUROPE
PIPELINE SO NOW THE NATURAL GAS
IS FLOWING AWAY FROM THAT, AND
YOU’VE GOT TO FIGURE HERE IN THE
U.S. , WE PAY AROUND $4.50
PER MILLION BRITISH THERMAL UNIT
S.
HOW HIGH ARE WE GOING TO SEE
THESE PRICES RISE FOR US
EVEN THOUGH WE’RE UNRELATED TO
THAT PIPELINE?
>> WELL OUR PRICES ARE A LITTLE
BIT CONSTRAINED DUE TO THE LACK
OF EXPORT CAPACITY FOR LNG, BUT
BY THE WAY OUR EXPORT CAPACITY
FOR LNG CONTINUES TO GROW WITH
A COMMISSIONING OF SEVENTH
FACILITY IN LOUISIANA OVER THE
LAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
I THINK THAT HERE IN THE UNITED
STATES, NATURAL GAS PRICES COULD
EASILY GET TO $6 A MILLION BTU,
BUT IF YOU COMPARE THAT TO
TODAY’S PRICE IN EUROPE, WHICH
IS CLOSER TO 25 TO $30 MILLION B
TU, IT’S STILL
PRETTY CHEAP.
LIZ: ALL RIGHT, I WANT TO GET TO
ED MILLS OF RAYMOND JAMES, YOU
ADVISE CERTAINLY BIG CLIENTS
ABOUT WHERE TO INVEST DURING POD
GOTH TIMES AND BAD TIMES, SOME
ARE SURPRISED, ED, WE’RE NOT SEE
RESPONSE, AND WHEN YOU SEE THAT,
I MEAN, WE’VE SEEN THE UK, WE’VE
SEEN THE EU, AND NOW THE U.S.
SLAPPING PRETTY SERIOUS
SANCTIONS ON THE RUSSIANS.
WHAT’S YOUR WORSE CASE SCENARIO
FOR THE MARKETS OR DOES IT JUST
GET BETTER FROM HERE?
>> ACTUALLY, ED MILLS WE JUST
LOST HIS SIGNAL, SO LET ME GO TO
ANDY BRENNER.
FROM THE FIXED INCOME
PERSPECTIVE HERE, DOES THIS TAKE
THAT 50 BASIS POINT HIKE THAT
EVERYBODY ANTICIPATED THE
FEDERAL RESERVE WOULD MAKE,
DOES THAT NOW COME OFF THE TABLE
BECAUSE THERE’S TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE WORLD RIGHT
NOW?
>> ABSOLUTELY, LIZ.
I THINK IT WAS COMING OFF THE
TABLE BEFORE THIS BUT LAST
WEEK THERE WAS A 56% CHANCE OF A
50 BASIS POINT RISE, AND IT WAS
EARLIER TODAY IT WAS DOWN TO
19, SO THAT IS DEFINITELY OFF
THE TABLE.
EVERYTHING I’VE SEEN EXCEPT FOR
FED GOVERNOR BULLARD HAS
TOLD ME THAT FED GOVERNORS WANT
TO PLOT ALONG 25 BASIS POINTS TO
START IN MARCH, MAYBE AGAIN IN
MAY, MAYBE AGAIN IN JUNE, BUT I
REALLY THINK THE FED IS GOING TO
MOVE MUCH MORE SLOWLY AND LIZ,
ASK YOURSELF THIS QUESTION.
IF THIS WAS REALLY GOING TO BE
AS AGGRESSIVE A FED AS PEOPLE
ARE SAYING, JPMORGAN SAYING NINE
RATE HIKES OVER THE NEXT NINE
MEETINGS, WHY ARE THEY STILL
BUYING BONDS?
WHY DOES QUANTITATIVE EASING
STILL EXIST?
THAT SHOULDN’T BE THERE, SO I
THINK THIS IS GOING TO BE A SLOW
MOVING FED, MOVE A COUPLE OF
TIMES, WAIT TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS,
I THINK INFLATION IS GOING TO
SUBSIDE, BUT THE NEXT TWO
INFLATION NUMBERS ARE NOT GOING
TO BE GOOD, PCE ON FRIDAY, CPI A
WEEK FROM TUESDAY THEY ARE GOING
TO BE BAD SO YOU HAVE TO GET
USED TO IT, BUT POWELL
SPEAKS NEXT WEEK AND WE’LL HAVE
TO WAIT TO SEE WHAT HE HAS TO
SAY.
LIZ: AS ALWAYS, IT HINGES VERY
MUCH ON POWELL VERSUS PUTIN AT
THE MOMENT, ED MILLS WE’VE GOT
YOU BACK AS WE LOOK AT THE
MARKETS AT THE MOMENT, THERE IS
THIS BELIEF THINGS COULD HAVE
BEEN A LOT WORSE AND THAT WE’VE
SEEN MAYBE THE WORST OF THE
SANCTIONS, DO YOU AGREE?
HOW MUCH MORE DOWNSIDE MOMENTUM
DO YOU ANTICIPATE AND I’M NOT
TALKING ABOUT THE RUSSIAN
MARKETS.
THE RTF, THE RUSSIAN STOCK
EXCHANGE HAS CRATERED 19% OVER
JUST FIVE SESSIONS BUT HERE IN
THE UNITED STATES, WHAT DO YOU
ANTICIPATE?
>> YEAH, LIZ WHEN I TALK TO
CLIENTS TODAY THERE IS A SENSE
THAT WE COULD SEE AN ESCALATION
BEFORE A POTENTIAL DEESCALATION,
THERE IS CERTAINLY A LOT OF RISK
THAT IS STILL HERE, BUT IN TERMS
OF WHAT BIDEN ANNOUNCED TODAY,
IT’S PROBABLY ABOUT A THREE OR
FOUR ON A SCALE OF ONE TO 10 IN
TERMS OF HOW AGGRESSIVE COULD HE
GO, THAT THERE’S A SENSE THAT
WE’RE GIVING PUTIN AN OFF RAMP,
SHOULD HE WANT TO TAKE IT, AND
SO I THINK PEOPLE ARE LOOKING AT
WHAT PUTIN DID OVER THE LAST 24
HOURS AS SAYING IS THIS THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR HIM TO
DECLARE SOMETHING BEFORE HE
WALKS BACK ON NORD STREAM 2?
THEY’VE TURNED OFF SOMETHING
THAT’S NOT YET TURNED ON SO THAT
COULD BE A BIG GIVE BACK TO
RUSSIA, BEFORE ANY NATURAL GAS
ACTUALLY WAS EVEN FLOWING
THROUGH THE PIPELINE.
LIZ: GOODNESS GRACIOUS, WE DO
HAVE THE DOW DOWN 329, BUT AT
THE MOMENT, THE RUSSIAN-BASED
EFT THAT WE JUST SHOWED ARE
GETTING ABSOLUTELY CRUSHED,
GREAT TO HAVE YOU, ED MILLS,
ANDY LIPPOW, ANDY BRENNER AND
GENERAL ANTHONY TATA.
GREAT TO HAVE ALL OF YOU, WE