How much does the the Delta
variant poses a threat to highly
vaccinated areas like the DMV?
Let's bring in once again tonight.
Doctor Amos had all who's senior
scholar at the Johns Hopkins
Center for Health Security to
help us break this all down.
So doctor, we know we know that the
delta variant is more contagious than
the other strain that we've seen.
We also know that vaccinated
people are testing positive,
so I think that we're all wondering how
much of a risk does the variant pose.
Two people here in the US who
are vaccinated. So if you're
somebody that's fully vaccinated,
that means two weeks after your second dose.
The Pfizer Moderna vaccine or or two weeks
after the Johnson and Johnson vaccine?
It doesn't appear that Delta variant
poses much of a risk to you.
What we're seeing in Israel is kind of a
a phenomenon of what they're doing there,
so some of those people
were not fully vaccinated,
but they were saying they were vaccinated.
They may have received one vaccine dose,
or they may not have waited two
weeks after their second dose and
they might have contracted it.
And what's happening in Israel
is that they are testing a lot
of people with asymptomatic,
asymptomatic people without symptoms,
which we don't really necessarily
want to do because those aren't
clinically relevant infections.
So one word when you're talking
about can the Delta variant make
somebody who's fully vaccinated sick?
It's unlikely to be the case,
and I think that's what we have to
remember that we're not so much worried
about cases here in the United States,
but worried about hospitalizations
and hospital capacity because we're
not trying to get to COVID zero,
and I think the best defense
against the delta variant
is to get fully vaccinated, right?
So those people aren't getting sick.
Is it possible at all that they
would be able to be asymptomatic and
transmit the delta variant? Maybe to
somebody who isn't vaccinated?
It's unlikely that someone who's
fully vaccinated can actually be
a focus of spread for this virus,
and we've seen that.
Of many other versions of this virus,
many other variants, and I think
it will hold with a delta variant.
Of course we want more data
on the Delta variant to see it
understand its epidemiology,
but I don't suspect the fully
vaccinated individual really
would pose a risk to someone
who's not vaccinating even in
the face of the delta. Very gotcha.
Now that cities are just opening back up,
is there the possibility that we
would have to rollback any of
those loosening of restrictions
because of the delta variant?
Any evidence it could get worse
in the US in the fall and winter?
I don't think you're going to see
kind of force forceful restrictions.
You might see voluntary restrictions that
get put in place or or recommendations,
especially in counties.
For example in Mississippi and Alabama,
where there's not enough people vaccinated.
However, I think it's going to be very
different when we see these these
surges or these increases in cases
with Delta variant because so many high
risk individuals have been vaccinated,
meaning people above the age
of 65 where nationally,
about 77% have been vaccinated.
But even in those counties
in Mississippi and Alabama,
where it's low in that high risk.
The vaccination rates are high,
so we may see cases we may see
uptick in hospitalizations like
we're seeing right now in Mesa,
Colorado,
but I don't think you're going to see
this be anything like what we saw.
For example,
in the spring of 2020 or the winter
2020-2021 because so many high
risk people have been vaccinated,
there's more population immunity
from natural infection,
but it's something that can be
completely preventable though.
So just because hospitals aren't
going into crisis doesn't mean we,
we don't take the Delta variants seriously,
so this is something that's
completely preventable.
Just get vaccinated and this
becomes a really a non issue.
For the
US, and I suppose this entire conversation is
really predicated on one thing in that is,
how long will the antibodies for
COVID remain in our system after
the vaccination? You know it,
it's almost like there's a race now,
perhaps between the Delta variant
and any possibility of having
to get a COVID-19 booster shot.
Do you see that playing out?
Well, we know so far that these vaccines
have produced durable immunity.
They've looked in the bone marrow
of people that have been vaccinated.
They they have cells there
that are producing antibodies,
and the other thing to remember
is it's not just antibodies that
are induced after a vaccine,
there's a whole other arm review
immune system called T cells,
and those are really important,
especially when it comes to
preventing what matters serious.
Disease, hospitalization and death.
So I suspect that we will have durable
immunity from these vaccines that
probably last two to three years.
We're going to do the studies to find
that out. It may be a little bit.
Different in immunocompromised patients,
for example,
people have gotten a solid organ
transplant like a liver transplant
or a heart transplant.
They may need more frequent boosters,
but for the general population I
don't think there's going to be a
need for boosters in the near term,
all right doctor Amesh
adalja all this information.
I'm sure helping a lot of us
feel better as we hear more
about the Delta variant.
Thanks again for your time,
appreciate it.
Thank you for having me.