On 14 November 2020, the leader of the Polisario Front announced an end to the 30-year ceasefire
in Western Sahara - thus raising the risk of renewed fighting
in one of the world's longest running independence disputes.
So, what exactly happened? And will we really see
a return to full-scale armed conflict in the region?
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Hello. If you're new to the channel my name is James Ker-Lindsay and here I
take a look at international relations, conflict and the origins of countries.
Around the world there are numerous groups vying for independence.
In many cases, these are traditional examples of secession.
A part of an established state wants to break away
but is denied the right to do so by the central government.
However, in a few examples, the campaign for independence is based on a legitimate right
to independence that was thwarted by another country.
Palestine is one obvious example. East Timor was another.
And then there's Western Sahara.
Once described as Africa's last colony, Western Sahara is by far the largest
and most populous of the 17 territories around the world
that are still on the United Nations list of non-self-governing territories.
By all accounts, Western Sahara should be
an independent country and a member of the United Nations.
Having been denied independence when Spain withdrew from the territory in the 1970s,
and then Morocco invaded, a bitter 16-year conflict in the territory came to an end in 1991
with a UN brokered agreement that promised an independence referendum.
However, almost 30 years later, the vote is yet to happen.
Instead, the territory appears to teeter on the brink of a return to war
as pro-independence forces have called an end to the ceasefire.
So, what happened?
I won't go into detail about the origins of the Western Sahara dispute
as I've already covered it in another video.
I have put a link above and in the description below.
But, by way of summary, Western Sahara lies on the west coast of Africa.
Covering around quarter of a million square kilometers,
or roughly a hundred thousand square miles, it's a little larger than the United Kingdom.
Its population is currently estimated to be in the region of around 600 000 people.
This is made up of indigenous Sahrawis and Moroccan settlers.
While it's strongly suspected that Moroccans now represent half of the population,
if not more, exact figures and proportions are hard to ascertain.
Conquered by Spain in the late 19th century, as the process of decolonisation grew in the
1950s and 60s, Madrid found itself under increasing pressure to withdraw and permit
the people to decide on their future in accordance with the UN Charter and
relevant UN General Assembly resolutions on the self-determination of colonial peoples.
However, the situation was complicated by the fact that two neighbouring countries - Morocco
to the north, and Mauritania to the south - both laid claim to Western Sahara.
Meanwhile, an indigenous liberation movement,
the Polisario Front, was established to secure the territory's independence.
Facing the possibility that the territory could become independent in its own right, Morocco
and Mauritania referred their claims to the territory to the International Court of Justice.
However, in October 1975 the Court ruled that they didn't have a historical claim to the territory
and reaffirmed the inhabitants' right to self-determination.
While this should have opened a way for a referendum on independence,
Morocco and Mauritania now took matters into their own hands.
In November 1975, over a third of a million Moroccans, supported by Moroccan troops,
crossed into Western Sahara.
At this point, Spain decided to abandon the territory - allowing
Morocco to move in from the north and Mauritania from the south.
This sparked fighting with Polisario forces.
On 26 February 1976, as Spain announced its final withdrawal,
Polisario declared the creation of an independent Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic.
However, the new country's hopes of full statehood had already been thwarted.
Morocco was in effective control of the northern two-thirds of the country
and Mauritania the southern third.
Meanwhile, Polisario was forced to set up its government in exile
in neighbouring Algeria, which shares a short border with Western Sahara.
In the years that followed, Polisario took on both Mauritanian and Moroccan forces.
While Mauritania in fact gave up its claim to the territory and withdrew in August 1979,
Morocco, which immediately moved in to take control of most of the newly vacated land,
remained determined to hold on to what it referred to as its "Southern Provinces".
To consolidate its position, Morocco began
constructing a series of highly fortified sand walls to prevent Polisario incursions.
This left Morocco in effective control of around 80 percent of Western Sahara.
Meanwhile, Morocco also cemented its position in other ways.
Most notably, as Sahrawis fled the territory to neighbouring Algeria, where over 100,000
live in refugee camps to this day, Morocco began encouraging mass settlement in Western Sahara.
But while Morocco was strengthening its position on the ground,
it was losing the diplomatic battle.
Its claim to sovereignty over Western Sahara was rejected by the international community
and in 1984 it withdrew from the Organisation of African Unity (OAU), the forerunner of the African
Union, following the body's decision to admit Western Sahara as a member.
Nevertheless, in 1988, the United Nations and the OAU brokered a peace agreement.
Morocco and Polisario agreed to a referendum on self-determination.
Three years later, on 29 April 1991, the UN Security Council passed Resolution 690,
establishing the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara - MINURSO.
As well as creating the conditions for a vote on the territory's future
that would offer the inhabitants a choice between independence and integration
with Morocco, the UN was also tasked with monitoring a ceasefire between the sides.
Despite the agreement to hold a referendum,
in the years that followed very little progress was made towards this goal.
Officially, the vote was blocked over a question of who should have a right
to vote in the referendum.
In truth, it became clear that Morocco didn't want to relinquish its hold over Western Sahara.
This was seemingly confirmed in 2006 when it unveiled
new proposals offering the territory autonomy instead of independence.
More recently, Morocco has also launched a diplomatic offensive to win
support for its position amid signs that countries are increasingly wavering.
It rejoined the African Union in 2017
and in 2019 the EU cut a trade deal with Morocco that included Western Sahar.
Meanwhile, in addition to encouraging countries to withdraw their recognition of Western Sahara
morocco, has also persuaded 15 states to establish consulates in the territory - including,
most recently, the United Arab Emirates; the first Arab state to do so.
Despite all this, intermittent talks continued between the sides under UN auspices.
And notwithstanding occasional incidents along the buffer zone,
the ceasefire between the sides continued to hold - until now.
So, what happened?
The immediate cause of Polisario's decision to end the ceasefire was a confrontation that
erupted in the far south of Western Sahara in an area called the Guerguerat Pass.
This lies on the Polisario side of the UN-controlled buffer zone.
Morocco claimed that in early November Polisario forces began blocking a key road
that provided a transport link to Mauritania.
It therefore sent in troops to clear it.
This led to a number of casualties amongst what Polisario insists were innocent protesters.
Arguing that the UN had failed to act to keep Moroccan forces out,
Polisario announced the end of the ceasefire.
While the confrontation in Guerguerat was certainly the catalyst for the
decision to end the ceasefire, in reality there's obviously a lot more behind it.
A relatively small incident like this can't really explain a decision to end a 29-year ceasefire.
In truth, it's been a long time coming.
And there are in fact a range of factors at play.
Most obviously. Polisario's decision seems to be driven by frustration
with the peace process - or what little remains of it.
There's been no discernible progress for quite some time
and there were no talks at all between 2012 and 2018.
And talks are again at a standstill after the UN envoy resigned in May 2019
on health grounds and has yet to be replaced - although the UN insists
that it has been trying to find a suitable appointee.
Secondly, it seems to be driven by a genuine concern about the pace and extent of integration.
Year-by-yea, Morocco is increasing its hold over the territory.
In a recent speech to mark the 45th anniversary of the march into Western Sahara,
the King of Morocco stated his personal commitment
to reaffirm the moroccan-ness of the Sahara and exploit its enormous maritime potential.
Thirdly, Western Sahara appears to be losing diplomatic ground.
Morocco's effort to encourage countries to recognize its control over the territory
appeared to be bearing fruits.
Apart from the growing number of consulates opening there, in recent months there's even
been suggestions that the United States could be on the verge of formally recognising Morocco's
sovereignty over the territory as part of a plan to encourage Morocco to recognise Israel.
Although this has been denied by Washington, this was certainly not beyond the realms of possibility
given the Trump Administration's concerted efforts to persuade Arab countries to recognise
Israel in recent months - a policy that saw the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan do so.
Fourthly, the situation on the ground in the refugee camps is deteriorating.
And on top of the high instances of malnutrition,
the camps have been hit hard by Covid and by a livestock virus that has decimated their animals.
Finally, there seems to be a generational element.
Having watched the peace process go nowhere, growing up in camps with no future,
and with no recollection of the war, the up and coming younger cadres in Polissaro
appear to believe that there's little to lose by taking up weapons against Morocco.
Taken together, these factors have created a strong pressure on the Polisario leadership
to resume the conflict - not because it necessarily sees an opportunity to defeat
Morocco militarily, but instead as a means to draw international attention to a dispute
that many rightfully feel is in limbo and has been largely forgotten by the outside world.
But what does all this mean? Will we really see a new return to conflict?
At this stage, it's hard to say with any certainty.
Although Polisario has already released information about a number of attacks
on Moroccan forces since the end of the ceasefire, many observers believe that
it will achieve little - especially given Morocco's overwhelming military superiority.
Indeed, and notably, Morocco insists that it continues to stand by the
ceasefire - although it has said it will hit back hard against attacks.
But while some observers have noted that the conflict could yet fizzle out,
there's also a very real prospect that it could ignite a new war.
In the meantime, the United Nations has appealed for calm.
As a spokesman stated, "the secretary-general remains committed to doing his utmost to avoid the
collapse of the ceasefire that has been in place since September 6, 1991, and he's determined to do
everything possible to remove all obstacles to the resumption of the peace process."
Likewise, there have been called for peace and dialogue from the African Union
and from the European Union.
The key question of course is whether any of this will in fact provide an opportunity to
address this long-standing, but otherwise largely forgotten conflict, as Polisario clearly hopes.
For almost half a century, the issue of Western Sahara has remained unresolved.
While there was an expectation that the territory would be given the right of self-determination,
and would have become an independent state following Spain's pull-out,
it was instead invaded by Morocco and Mauritania.
While Mauritania soon withdrew, Morocco found itself in a protracted conflict
with the forces fighting for an independent Western Saharan state.
And although fighting came to an end in 1991 with a promise
to hold a referendum on the territory's future, the vote has never materialised.
Instead, Morocco has steadily increased its hold over the territory.
It's this that seems to have driven Polisario's decision to end the ceasefire.
Without for one moment wishing to justify, let alone condone, a return to conflict,
there's simply no escaping the underlying cause of the current flare-up of violence.
Ultimately, Polisario's decision to announce the end of the ceasefire
seems to be driven by frustration at the way that the international community
has failed to follow through on calls for a referendum, its weakening position
on the international stage, and by the sense of hopelessness amongst the young.
In other words, the announcement would appear to be more of a cry for help than a call for war.
The question is whether the international community is now spurred to take action - or
whether we will see a serious and sustained return to fighting in Africa's last colony.
I hope you found that interesting. If so, here are some more videos that you might find useful.
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Thanks so much for watching and see you in the next video.